Executive Survey Insights | Wave 18: December 17 to December 27, 2020

NIC’s Executive Survey of operators in seniors housing and skilled nursing is designed to deliver transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space at a time when market conditions continue to change. This Wave 18 survey includes responses collected December 14-December 27, 2020 from owners and executives of 76 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey and a PDF of the report charts can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights.

The effect of the pandemic’s surge in the Fall is reflected in NIC’s recent ESI survey results. The November surveys (Waves 15 and 16), which provided insights into operator experiences in October, showed new downward trends in the pace of move-ins, move-outs, and occupancy rates across the continuum of care. These trends continued into the holiday season. More survey respondents reported drops in occupancy in the past 30-days than increases. In light of COVID-19 infection positivity rates rising across the country, more organizations in Wave 18 cited self-imposed or government-imposed move-in restrictions as a reason for slowing the pace of settling residents into their communities.”

–Lana Peck, Senior Principal, NIC

NIC’s Executive Survey of operators in seniors housing and skilled nursing is designed to deliver transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space at a time when market conditions continue to change. This Wave 18 survey includes responses collected December 14-December 27, 2020 from owners and executives of 76 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey and a PDF of the report charts can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights.

Additionally, the full range of time series data for each wave of the survey by care segment for move-ins, move-outs and occupancy rate changes can be found HERE.

 

Wave 18 Summary of Insights and Findings

  • A slower pace of move-ins was reported by survey respondents in Wave 18 for all care segments, likely reflecting the recent surge in COVID incidence. Conversely, only the independent living and memory care segments experienced faster rates of move-ins, albeit slightly, than in the prior survey period.
  • The shares of organizations reporting a deceleration in the pace of move-ins in the past 30-days for the assisted living and memory care segments remained at or around their highest levels since Waves 7 and 8 (surveyed mid-May to early-June). The shares of organizations reporting deceleration in the pace of move-ins in the nursing care segment (60%), was similar to the Wave 16 survey conducted in mid-November, illustrating the beginning of a new slowdown in the nursing care segment due to the Fall resurgence of the virus that began in October (this pattern is evident also for the assisted living and memory care segments, as well.) The full time-series can be viewed HERE.

  • Roughly two-thirds of organizations cited a slowdown in leads conversions/sales and/or resident or family member concerns as reasons for decelerations in the pace of in move-ins in the past 30-days. However, approximately one-third of organizations in Wave 18 cited a mandatory government-imposed ban (34%, up from 13% in Wave 17) or an organization-imposed ban (30% up from 21% in Wave 17).

  • Approximately one-third of respondents (32%) indicated that their organizations had a backlog of residents waiting to move-in. This is similar to the high point (34%) reached in the Wave 16 survey conducted in mid-November and higher than Wave 17 (26%).
  • Most of the organizations that responded to the Wave 18 Survey reported no change in the pace of move-outs for each of the care segments. However, the share of organizations that reported an acceleration in the pace of move-outs in recent surveys is similar to levels seen earlier in the pandemic. The full time-series can be viewed HERE.

  • As shown in the chart below, resident deaths (unspecified reason) continued to be the most frequently cited reason for the acceleration in the pace of move-outs in the last 30-days (85%). This is up from 61% in Wave 13 and equal to the peak of 85% reached in the Wave 6 survey conducted in early-May.
  • Roughly 15% of survey respondents cited “another reason” for an acceleration in move-outs. This included COVID-19 outbreaks in higher levels of care segments, staffing limitations/shortages (some due to COVID-19 infection), the Thanksgiving holiday, and adult children waiting for the virus to decline before moving a parent in.
  • Presumably, as a result of better and safer visitation protocols and more acceptance, resident or family member concerns cited as a reason for the acceleration in the pace of move-outs (24%) was down from 63% in Wave 10 surveyed in late-July and is currently at the lowest level in the survey time series.

  • For each of the care segments, the shares of organizations reporting downward changes in occupancy in the past 30-days continued to outpace those reporting upward changes. Considering recent survey data, this trend began in the Wave 16 survey conducted in early November (reflecting experiences that occurred during October). Compared to Wave 17, the percentage of organizations with independent living, assisted living and memory care segments reporting month-over-month declines in occupancy rates increased. Between 46% and 58% of organizations with assisted living units, memory care units and/or nursing care beds, and 35% with independent living units, reported downward changes in occupancy in the past 30-days. The full time-series can be viewed HERE.

  • The chart below describes the degree of those occupancy rate changes. The blue and orange-hued stacked bars correspond to the solid bars in the chart above indicating the degree of change by the saturation of color.
  • The assisted living care segment saw the largest share of organizations reporting a decline in occupancy rates in the past 30-days. in Wave 18, 58% of respondents with assisted living units in their portfolios of properties noted declines in occupancy rates to varying degrees. The chart below shows that 30% of the survey respondents reported occupancy declines in the 0.1 to three percentage point range, while another one in four (28%) reported occupancy declines of more than three percentage points.
  • About one-half of organizations with memory care and/or nursing care (51% and 46%, respectively) reported a decline in occupancy in Wave 18. The degrees of decline were higher for the nursing care segment than the memory care segment: about one in five organizations with nursing care beds (19%) noted downward occupancy changes between five and ten percentage points or more, whereas about one in five organizations with memory care units (18%) noted downward occupancy changes between three and ten percentage points.
    .

  •  NOI is likely being pressured as most of the organizations in the Wave 18 survey sample were paying staff overtime hours and using agency or temp staff to backfill staffing shortages (89% and 70%, respectively). Additionally, about two-thirds of respondents (68%) noted they are experiencing challenges obtaining PPE due to high budgetary constraints (34%) or high demand/competition (34%). Fewer respondents in Wave 18 reported challenges obtaining PPE due to restrictions on allocation (18% vs. 29%). However, about two in five respondents reported having experienced none of these challenges (39%).
  • The higher levels of care segments (assisted living, memory care and nursing care) reported increases in PPE budgets commensurate with growing levels of care. Additionally, organizations with the largest portfolios of properties were more likely to report significantly higher PPE budget increases than single-site operators. As shown in the chart below comparing Waves 17 and 18, each of the care segments saw growing increases in PPE budgets, but the nursing care segment saw the most growth with roughly one-quarter (28%) estimating an increase of more than 300%.

  • In Wave 18, one-half of respondents (52%) received their COVID-19 test results within 2-days, however it is taking 3 to 5 days to receive test results for the other half of respondents (48%). No respondents reported having to wait more than 5-days. These findings were relatively unchanged since Wave 14 surveyed mid-October.

  • Four in five respondents (82%) indicated their organizations have increased the use of telehealth/virtual appointments since the beginning of the pandemic (similar to 87% in Wave 17).

 

Wave 18 Survey Demographics

  • Responses were collected December 14-December 28, 2020 from owners and executives of 76 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Approximately half of respondents are exclusively for-profit providers (52%), more than one-third are nonprofit providers (37%), and 11% operate both for-profit and nonprofit seniors housing and care organizations.
  • Owner/operators with 1 to 10 properties comprise just over half of the sample (56%). Operators with 11 to 25 properties make up about one-quarter of the sample (24%), while operators with 26 properties or more make up 20% of the sample.
  • Many respondents in the sample report operating combinations of property types. Across their entire portfolios of properties, 73% of the organizations operate seniors housing properties (IL, AL, MC), 40% operate nursing care properties, and 35% operate CCRCs (aka Life Plan Communities).

 

Owners and C-suite executives of seniors housing and care properties, we’re asking for your input! By providing real-time insights to the longest running pulse of the industry survey you can help ensure the narrative on the seniors housing and care sector is accurate. By demonstrating transparency, you can help build trust.

“…a closely watched Covid-19-related weekly survey of [ ] operators
conducted by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care…”
Wall Street Journal | June 30, 2020

The Wave 19 survey is available and takes just 5 minutes to complete. If you are an owner or C-suite executive of seniors housing and care and have not received an email invitation to take the survey, please click this link or send a message to insight@nic.org to be added to the email distribution list.

NIC wishes to thank survey respondents for their valuable input and continuing support for this effort to bring clarity and transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space at a time where trends are continuing to change.

U.S. Jobs Fall in December for First Time Since April

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 140,000 in December and that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%. This was the first decline in jobs since April and reflects the recent increase in COVID-19 cases and efforts to contain the pandemic.

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 140,000 in December and that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%. This was the first decline in jobs since April and reflects the recent increase in COVID-19 cases and efforts to contain the pandemic.
Job losses were concentrated in leisure and hospitality sectors (down 498,000 jobs) as bars and restaurants have been shut down due to the surge in coronavirus infections. Professional and business services, retail trade and construction saw gains. The consensus estimates for December had been for a gain of 50,000. Through December, 9.8 million jobs have been lost since February.
 

Health care added 39,000 jobs in December, with the largest gains occurring in hospitals and ambulatory health care services. Nursing care facilities lost 6,000 jobs in December, while jobs in community care facilities for the elderly lost 5,000 positions. Health care employed 502,000 fewer workers in December than in February.

The December unemployment rate was unchanged from November after having fallen for seven consecutive months.   It remains 3.2 percentage points above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5% seen in February, but well below the 14.7% peak seen in April.  

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed from November at 4.0 million, but has increased by 2.8 million since February, suggesting that this continues to be a very challenging time for many Americans. Long-term unemployed persons account for 37.1% of the total number of unemployed persons.  

The underemployment rate or the U-6 jobless rate fell to 11.7% in December from 12.0% in November. This figure includes those who have quit looking for a job because they are discouraged about their prospects and people working part-time but desiring a full work week.  

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.23 in December to $29.81, a gain of 5.1% from a year earlier. These increases largely reflect the disproportionate number of lower paid workers in leisure and hospitality who went off payrolls, which put upward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimates. 

The labor force participation rate, which is a measure of the share of working age people who are employed or looking for work was steady 61.5% in December.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 44,000 from 610,000 to 654,000 and the change for November was revised up by 91,000 from 245,000 to 336,000. Combined, 135,000 jobs were added to the original estimates.   Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.  

The decline in jobs reflects the large number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 infections and its impact on business closures. Many states are re-imposing lockdowns. Widespread distribution of vaccines is needed to allow for a more complete re-opening of the economy and a recovery in jobs. Congress needs to act to implement further fiscal stimulus to support a recovery. Without a fiscal stimulus package, the economy is likely to sputter until a vaccine can be safely and widely distributed.

Skilled Nursing Occupancy Remains Depressed in October 2020

NIC MAP® Data Service released its latest Skilled Nursing Monthly Report, which includes key monthly data points from January 2012 through October 2020.

 

Managed Medicare revenue mix at 9.1%.

NIC MAP® Data Service released its latest Skilled Nursing Monthly Report on December 30, 2020, which includes key monthly data points from January 2012 through October 2020.

Here are some key takeaways from the report:

Occupancy

The nursing care occupancy rate continued to be depressed at 74.7% in October 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to take a toll. The occupancy rate edged up 40 basis points from September’s level of 74.3%, but it was still down 9.1 percentage points since the pandemic began in March (83.8%), 10.5 percentage points since February (85.2%), and 9.9 percentage points from year-earlier levels (84.7%). The occupancy trend varied across geographies as urban areas saw a 70-basis point increase from September to October, but rural areas experienced a 23-basis point decline. However, both rural and urban areas are experiencing unprecedented low occupancy levels due to COVID-19. Achieving stabilized occupancy will be a challenge as the pandemic enters a third wave and as the vaccine begins to be distributed.

NIC Skilled Nursing Occupancy October 2020

Medicare

Medicare patient day mix decreased 21 basis points from 12.4% in September to 12.2% in October. However, it is up 79 basis points since March (11.4%). In addition, Medicare revenue mix also decreased from September to October, falling 51 basis points. When compared to overall occupancy, Medicare patient days have been impacted as have all payor types, as many referrals to skilled nursing properties have been limited due to the pandemic. However, Medicare patient days likely did not decrease as much as they may otherwise had been because the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) waived the 3-Day Rule, which removes the requirement for a 3-day inpatient hospital stay prior to a Medicare-covered skilled nursing stay. This change enables more patient days to be covered by Medicare, which can have a positive impact on cash flow, all else equal.

Managed Medicare

Managed Medicare revenue mix increased slightly from September to October (16 basis points) to 9.1% but has declined 174 basis points since February and 75 basis points from year-earlier levels. As skilled nursing occupancy continues to remain depressed and many insurance plan enrollees are being cared for at home after surgeries, the October data suggests that Managed Medicare admissions remain far below the levels seen prior to the pandemic, even after elective surgeries were resumed. In addition, some managed Medicare patients may still be hesitant to have surgery if the recovery requires a skilled nursing stay. Expectations are that admissions will take some time to rebound due to competition from home health as well as other factors.

NIC Skilled Nursing Share of Revenue October 2020

Medicaid

Medicaid revenue mix declined 55 basis points from 49.1% in September to 48.6% in October. Medicaid revenue mix has declined 285 basis points since March (51.4%) and 330 basis points from October 2019. Medicaid total patient days have likely decreased as well, due to lower overall admissions during the pandemic and as some Medicaid patients have likely converted to Medicare due to the waiver of the 3-Day Rule.

 

To get more trends from the latest data you can download the Skilled Nursing Monthly Report at here. There is no charge for this report.

The report provides aggregate data at the national level from a sampling of skilled nursing operators with multiple properties in the United States. NIC continues to grow its database of participating operators in order to provide data at localized levels in the future. Operators who are interested in participating can complete a participation form at nic.org/skilled-nursing-data-initiative. NIC maintains strict confidentiality of all data it receives.

NIC Notes’ Top Posts of 2020

By the end of 2020, NIC will have posted approximately 140 articles on this blog for the year. Posts range in style and content, offering a mix of data, analysis, commentary, and many insights drawn from NIC events, publications, surveys, and data releases. 

By the end of 2020, NIC will have posted approximately 140 articles on this blog for the year. Posts range in style and content, offering a mix of data, analysis, commentary, and many insights drawn from NIC events, publications, surveys, and data releases. Obviously, the COVID-19 pandemic, which we began to write about in March, held sway over our readers throughout the year. NIC Notes has become a reliable source of new datainsights, and forward-thinking perspective, designed to help operators, capital providers and other stakeholders, as they’ve struggled both to protect residents and adapt to a highly challenging business environment. 

As the COVID-19 pandemic hit, NIC went into overdrive, producing numerous new initiatives and resources to help the seniors housing and care sector understand the pandemic’s impact. The blog has served both as a means to efficiently disseminate portions of that new information, such as the latest Executive Survey Insights findings, and as a conduit for operator commentary, practical new ideas from the field, and expert analysis of the very latest data. A review of our most popular posts for the year reveals a pattern: NIC Notes posts that offer practical insights and usable data are drawing record readership in 2020. 

Our first NIC Notes piece on the pandemic, posted March 24th, remains one of the blog’s most read for the year. “Survey: Overwhelming Majority of Senior Housing Properties Continue to Maintain Occupancy,” is subtitled “Residents and Their Families Are Not Abandoning These Communities.” The post reported findings from a survey of private pay seniors housing operators, conducted by Activated Insights on March 18th and 19th. The survey, representing 1,078 buildings and 100,899 units, offered data that countered early media stories of families pulling their family members from nursing homes. 

As NIC Co-Founder and Strategic Advisor Robert Kramer noted in the post, “The results from this survey are especially timely since the investment community has been starved for data in this time of uncertainty.” That timeliness and the hunger for data proved to be a major driver for blog readership throughout the rest of 2020. 

executive_survey_MF_500x230-1

On April 03, NIC Senior Principal Lana Peck posted the first of numerous Executive Survey Insights posts. The weekly survey, which NIC continues to conduct today, is yielding “timely insights from owners and C-suite operators on the pulse of seniors housing and skilled nursing sectors.” Each post on the latest wave of survey results is a top performer, yielding not only many readers, but stunning “Time Per Pageview” metrics of up to 11 hours per post, a fact that helps indicate just how closely this important data, and Peck’s analysis, is being watched.  

The survey offers a wealth of information on the current state of the industry. Peck offers a detailed breakdown of survey respondents’ demographics, revealing a mix of U.S. operators, including for-profit and not-for-profits, small and large companies, operating few or many properties of all types.  

The survey yields the latest on a variety of important metrics, including change in occupancy by care segment, pace of move-ins and move-outs, labor strategies, staff supports, and development pipeline considerations.  

But, as reported in another top ten blog post, Survey respondents can leave their comments and concerns, many of which reflect the impact of the crisis on a more human level. Using a survey respondent’s comment as a title, the April 17 post, “We Feel We Are Alone in a War Zone” focuses on the more personal impact of the pandemic, particularly on struggling operators and their staff.  

The post shared numerous anonymous comments, along with observations, which included this: “The comments reveal a perspective that is seldom represented in media reports: that it is no easy task to fight this highly contagious killer, particularly in a senior living environment populated with frail elders who often require hands-on assistance, specialized care services, and close monitoring every day and night. Many operators are fighting to save lives, while simultaneously easing the anxieties and concerns of their residents, staff, and families. 

NIC Notes readers also flocked to posts that offered analysis and insight on trends that will be impacted by the pandemic. In “The Forgotten Middle Post COVID-19,” posted April 15, NIC contributor Jane Adler offered readers a seat at a key “town hall” session from the 2020 NIC Spring Conference. Subtitled, “More seniors will need an affordable alternative for housing and care as the consequences of the pandemic unfold,” the post offered insights on how the pandemic will impact this large – and growing – demographic in the near future. 

The post features insights from NIC Chief Economist Beth Mace; study co-author Caroline Pearson, senior vice president, at NORC at the University of Chicago; Jan Eyer, regional president at Optum, a division of United HeathGroup; James Lydiard, general manager of CareMore’s Touch program for senior living communities; Kevin O’Neil, chief medical officer at Affinity Living Group; and Diane Burfeindt, vice president of population health, Presbyterian Senior Living. 

Another NIC initiative launched in response to new COVID-19 challenges, was a series of “Leadership Huddle” webinars, offering live, interactive moderated discussions, with a focus on the intersection between capital providers and operators of seniors housing and care.” Each of these events was covered by a blog post featuring a detailed recap, including key quotes and observations from the webinars.  

leadership-huddle-generic-1

The most-read of these posts, “Leadership Huddle: Cooperation as Seniors Housing Operators and Capital Providers Fight COVID-19 (April 10) outlines the frank discussion between operators and capital providers, as they face a protracted pandemic and begin to look ahead to a ‘new normal.’ Panelists Fee Stubblefield, Founder & CEO, The Springs LivingKathryn Sweeney, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, Blue Moon Capital Partners LPand Wendy Simpson, Chairman, President & CEO, LTC Properties, offered up their chief concerns and insights on their experiences.  

The post brings readers into a very human discussion about an extremely difficult situation for business leaders in seniors housing and care. The post includes several key quotes, including this, from joint-venture-structured capital partner Sweeney, “This is really hard. Discussions, truthfully, lean to the empathetic rather than the financial side of the scale. We want to make sure our operators are not worried about spending money on PPE and test kits.” She pointed out that, although many operators have protocols in place, “Nobody has experience with this. We’re all running to catch up.”  

Another closely followed series of blog posts drives thousands of visits to NIC Notes. When NIC Senior Principal Bill Kauffman posts his analysis on the latest NIC MAP® Data Service Skilled Nursing Monthly Report, readership always spikes. The report offers key monthly data points, which, when analyzed and digested by Kauffman, provide greater transparency for the nation’s skilled nursing markets. 

The most-read of Kauffman’s posts for the yearPace of Occupancy Decline Slows in Skilled Nursing, like all of his posts, focuses on the key findings of interest to operators and capital providersThe post covers the pace of occupancy decline, Managed Medicare patient day mixMedicare revenue mix, and Medicare RPPD trends – all critical data for the industry – and clearly all of interest to NIC Notes readers. 

In a very different type of post, yet another NIC Senior Principal, Ryan Brooks, rewarded readers with an analysis of the latest academic research on COVID-19 penetration rates in nursing homes. Posted on June 19, “Characteristics Affecting COVID-19 Penetration in Nursing Homes” reports that, Recently published studies from academics at Brown University, Harvard University, and the University of Chicago have suggested that there are a few key characteristics that can be associated with higher penetration rates of COVID-19 in U.S. nursing homes.   

As Brooks points out, not all of the characteristics of penetration were expected. Offering insights on facility size and location, non-chain status, percentage of African-American residents, five-star ratings, and ownership structure, the post contains some surprises.  bethmace_844315

A regular contributor to NIC Notes is NIC Chief Economist Beth Mace. Of her many popular posts, the most-read for the year, posted October 29th and drawing a top-ten audience, was, “The Ongoing Impact of COVID-19: Six Takeaways from NIC MAP’s 3Q20 Seniors Housing Data Release Webinar.” As explained in the post, “NIC MAP® Data Service clients attended a webinar in mid-October on key seniors housing data trends during the third quarter of 2020. Findings reflected the impact of COVID-19 across the seniors housing and care sector, led by NIC’s research team.” The post reveals key takeaways, shares a few slides from the presentation, and offers readers a complimentary download of an abridged presentation. 

Finally, the most-read of all NIC Notes posts for 2020 was Planning for a New Normal as Seniors Housing Reopens. Posted on May 19th, this article delves into the details involved in adapting a community to life not only during – but post-COVID-19. To gain real-world insight and practical considerations, NIC interviewed Jonathan Cook, President/CEO of LifeSpire Living, an operator of four continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) in Virginia. The resulting post features numerous useful and practical examples of adaptation, which, during a time of disruption and rapidly shifting market factors, may explain why so many of our readers have rewarded it with their time and attention, as they also look ahead, and plan for a post-COVID ‘new normal.’8 

NIC’s Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker Shows Fatalities Reach Unprecedented Levels as Midwest See New Cases at Highest Levels in Months

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) provides up-to-date information on the incidence of COVID-19 cases among nursing facilities as well as fatality statistics associated with COVID-19. The NIC Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker (Tracker) was recently updated to include fatality counts.

Staffing shortages continue to be a serious concern and a contributing factor driving the high number of cases and fatalities across the four regions.

 

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) provides up-to-date information on the incidence of COVID-19 cases among nursing facilities as well as fatality statistics associated with COVID-19. The NIC Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker (Tracker) was recently updated to include fatality counts. This is the fourth sorting metric available in the Tracker. The other sorting options include same-store occupancy (CMS data), new COVID-19 confirmed cases as a share of residents, and new COVID-19 confirmed cases per same store facilities.

Data for November 29 showed that Midwest properties continued to report high numbers of new COVID cases: 6,574 among staff/personnel and 6,663 new residents’ cases within 4,104 facilities. This accounted for over 40% of overall new cases and was equivalent to 2.65% rate of newly confirmed cases among residents. This was the highest rate recorded across all four U.S. regions since CMS began reporting nursing homes COVID-19 data in late May. The South reported the second highest rate at 1.53%, followed by the Northeast (1.22%), and West (1.01%).

sntchart1*Exhibit 1 – Source: NIC Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker

Exhibit 1 shows that the share of properties reporting new confirmed cases on a weekly basis has increased dramatically in the Midwest from 9.4% on May 31 to 32.2% on November 29. The South and West regions experienced an increase of 11.2 percentage points to 22.3% and 4.5 percentage points to 14.1%, respectively. The Northeast rate saw a slight uptick from its highest peak of 25.2% recorded in late May to 26.1%.

Although the number of new COVID-19 confirmed cases has reached new records since the pandemic began, the number of fatalities in the Northeast and West regions remains below the high points seen earlier in the pandemic. The West reported the lowest rate of fatalities as a share of residents at 0.14%, followed by the Northeast (0.17%), down from 0.46% on May 31. However, the Tracker shows that COVID-19 fatalities reached unprecedented levels in the Midwest as new cases rose to the highest levels since the month of October. There, new fatalities among residents reached 0.49% on November 29, double the rate recorded on May 31 (0.24%).

 

sntchart2
*Exhibit 2 – Source: NIC Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker

CMS data depicted in Exhibit 3 show that properties in the Midwest also experienced high shortages of aides, clinical staff, nursing staff and other staff in general. About one-third (32.1%) of properties reported shortages of aides and nearly 29% were critically short on nursing staff for the week ending November 22. Notably, shortages of aides and staff in the Northeast were relatively few. This suggests that staffing shortages continue to be a serious concern and a contributing factor driving the high number of cases and fatalities across the U.S. four regions, particularly, in the Midwest and South.

sntchart3

*Exhibit 3 – Source: NIC Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Supplemental Data

In terms of CMS-reported occupancy rates, the Midwest had the lowest rate of 67.5% on November 29. The South’s occupancy rate fell to 68.1%, down 3.7 percentage points from May 31 levels.
Skilled nursing properties in the Northeast maintained their weekly occupancy levels above 73% over the past six months and rank highest among the four regions. In fact, occupancy increased by 0.3 percentage points on November 29 from May 31 levels. The West reported the second highest rate of 71.4%.

For the first time since the pandemic began, all U.S. states showed a decrease in occupancy on a week-over-week basis between November 22 and November 29.

 

sntchart4
*Exhibit 4 – Source: NIC Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker

The FDA approved Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for distribution on December 11 and is moving to authorize the vaccine made by Moderna. Health care workers and nursing home residents are a top priority for COVID-19 vaccines. While this is promising, it remains ever important to stay vigilant for the next few months until a vaccine is widely distributed.

To gain in-depth insights and track the week-over-week change rate for new resident cases of COVID-19 within skilled nursing properties at the state and county levels, visit NIC’s Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker. Access to the Skilled Nursing COVID-19 Tracker as well as a rich trove of analysis and insights can also be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center.