The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 390,000 in May 2022 and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%. The report confirms that the labor market remains strong, despite the war in Ukraine and on-going supply-chain pressures. Concerns about rising wage costs and inflation are also supported by this report. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.10 in May to $31.95. This was a gain of 5.2% from year-earlier levels but was less than the 5.5% gain seen in April.

The data shows that the labor market continues to gain momentum and wage growth is strong. The report strengthens the Federal Reserve’s intention of continuing to raise interest rates further following the 0.75 percentage point hike in the fed funds rate that has already occurred so far this year. Another 0.50 percentage point hike is anticipated at the next FOMC meeting.

Revisions subtracted 22,000 to total payrolls in the previous two months. Nonfarm payrolls were still down by 822,000 or 0.5% from their pre-pandemic level in February 2020. The market consensus had been for a gain of 320,000.

In a separate survey conducted by the BLS, the jobless rate was 3.6% for the third month in a row. The jobless rate is only 0.1 percentage point above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5% seen in February 2020, and well below the 14.7% peak seen in April 2020. The number of persons unemployed was essentially unchanged at 6.0 million but was still above the 5.7-million-person level seen prior to the pandemic.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates were 3.4% for adult women, adult men (3.4%), teenagers (10.4%), White (3.2%), Black (6.2%), Asian (2.4%), and Hispanic (4.3%).

The labor force participation rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 62.3% in May and was below the February 2020 level of 63.4%.

The April underemployment rate or the U-6 jobless rate was 7.1%, up from 7.0% in April 2022. This figure includes those who have quit looking for a job because they are discouraged about their prospects and people working part-time but desiring a full work week.

Employment in health care rose by 28,000 in May. Employment in health care was down by 223,000, or 1.3% from its level in February 2020. Employment in nursing care facilities rose by 1,300 positions to 1.348 million but was 35,600 less than year-earlier levels.

Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 84,000 in May and were 1.3 million positions below the pre-pandemic level.

“Demand for skilled nursing seemingly is rising as occupancy has now increased steadily since January and COVID-19 cases declined from January to March.”

– Bill Kauffman

NIC MAP^® Data, powered by NIC MAP Vision, released its latest Skilled Nursing Monthly Report on June 2, 2022. The report includes key monthly data points from January 2012 through March 2022.
Here are some key takeaways from the report.

Skilled nursing property occupancy increased 23 basis points in the month of March, ending the month at 77.1%. This was the highest occupancy level since the beginning of the pandemic in April 2020 but was still well below the pre-pandemic March 2020 level of 84.8%. After declining 30 basis points in January because of the Omicron variant challenges, including increased staffing shortages, occupancy has increased 119 basis points (1.2 percentage points) since January. In addition, it has increased 503 basis points from the low of 72.1% set in January 2021. These data points suggest that demand for skilled nursing properties is growing, although staffing shortages continue to limit the ability to admit new residents.

Medicare revenue per patient day (RPPD) decreased from February to end March 2022 at $573. The 1.0% decrease from the prior month suggests that the decline in COVID-19 cases has reduced the amount of reimbursement needed for COVID-19 positive residents. At its height, COVID-19 required additional measures of care to be implemented. The federal government implemented many initiatives to aid properties for cases of COVID-19, including increases in Medicare fee-for-service reimbursements to help care for COVID-19 positive patients who required isolation. The reduction in additional Medicare reimbursement is also evident in the revenue mix data. Medicare revenue mix declined 339 basis points from February, ending March at 21.2%.

Managed Medicare revenue mix decreased 78 basis points from February to end March at 10.6%, reversing the 83-basis point increase that occurred from January to February. Prior to the pandemic, in February 2020, it was 11.2% and then declined to a pandemic low of 8.1% in May 2020. It is now 255 basis points above the low point. The increase from the pandemic low is likely due to growth in elective surgeries from 2020, which typically creates additional referrals to skilled nursing properties.

Medicaid revenue per patient day (RPPD) declined from February to end March 2022 at $246. In addition, Medicaid is down 1.2% from the prior year in March 2021. However, Medicaid RPPD has increased during the pandemic as many states embraced measures to increase reimbursement related to the number of COVID-19 cases to support skilled nursing properties. Medicaid RPPD has increased 2.9% since February 2020, prior to the pandemic.

Get more trends from the latest data by downloading the Skilled Nursing Monthly Report. There is no charge for this report.

The report provides aggregate data at the national level from a sampling of skilled nursing operators with multiple properties in the United States. NIC continues to grow its database of participating operators to provide data at localized levels in the future. Operators who are interested in participating can complete a participation form. NIC and NIC MAP Vision maintain strict confidentiality of all data received.

In a new question in the Wave 41 survey, respondents were asked whether they found the acuity of new resident move-ins to have increased, decreased, or stayed the same as compared to before the pandemic. Significantly, move-in acuity has increased for 71% of the respondents with assisted living, and for more than 60% of respondents with memory care units and nursing care beds. In independent living settings, 41% of respondents report acuity having increased since before the pandemic. The shares of organizations reporting acceleration in nursing care move-ins continued to increase – from 21% in Wave 37 conducted in January 2022 to 68% in Wave 41. This marks the fourth consecutive wave where the pace of nursing care move-ins has increased from the prior wave. Over one-half of respondents to the Wave 41 survey (53%) reported lead volumes above pre-pandemic levels in May – a noteworthy increase from the Wave 38 survey reflecting results in February (33%).

-Ryan Brooks, Senior Principal, NIC

NIC’s Executive Survey of senior housing and skilled nursing operators was implemented in March 2020 to deliver real-time insights into the impact of the pandemic and the pace of recovery. In its third year, the “ESI” is transitioning away from the COVID-19 crisis to focus on timely industry topics. While some standard questions will remain for tracking purposes, in each new survey “wave,” new questions are added.

This Wave 41 survey includes responses from May 2 to May 27, 2022, from owners and executives of 60 small, medium, and large senior housing and skilled nursing operators across the nation, representing hundreds of buildings and thousands of units across respondents’ portfolios of properties. More detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey and a PDF of the report charts can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights.

In a new question in the Wave 41 survey, respondents were asked whether they found the acuity of new resident move-ins to have increased, decreased, or stayed the same as compared to before the pandemic started. Of note, increased move-in acuity was reported by 71% of the respondents for assisted living, 61% in memory care, and 62% in nursing care. Only 41% of independent living reported increased resident acuity at move-in.

In the Wave 41 survey, three-quarters of respondents indicated the severity of their staffing shortages across their organizations was moderate (77%). This marks the second consecutive wave in which moderate staffing shortages increased. Conversely, 16% of respondents reported staffing shortages to be severe in the Wave 41 survey. This marks the second consecutive wave in which severe staffing shortages declined, compared to Wave 40 (19%) and Wave 39 (27%).

Despite fewer reports of severe staffing shortages, attracting community and caregiving staff remains to be a top challenge cited by operators (83%). Rising operating expenses (80%) and staff turnover (63%) follow as the second and third most reported challenges.

In another new question in the Wave 41 survey, respondents were asked about their utilization of the CMS nurse aide training waiver, which temporarily waived the 12-hour in-service training requirement for nursing assistants. With the waiver set to expire on June 7, 2022, 43% of respondents reported using the nurse aide training waiver to employ aides for longer than four months, even if those aides had not completed the training and certification requirements. Respondents who reported making use of the waiver were asked what impact the expiration would have on their organization’s ability to staff their properties. All respondents indicated the expiration would have an impact: 25% reported it would have a minimal impact, 58% reported it would have a moderate impact, and 17% reported it would have a strong impact.

Regarding the current share of all full-time, open positions across respondent organizations, in the Wave 41 survey, approximately one out of three respondents have between 11% and 20% of full-time positions unfilled, whereas roughly two out of five respondents have 20% or more positions currently unfilled.

The timeline below shows the share of organizations reporting an increase in the pace of move-ins during the prior 30-days. Data from the Wave 41 survey shows that the increase in pace of move-ins continues to be above the levels reported in Waves 32 through 38. This is an encouraging sign that recovery is continuing.

In the Wave 41 survey (reflecting operator experiences in May), 36% of respondents with independent living, 53% of respondents with assisted living, 51% of respondents with memory care, and 78% of respondents with nursing care reported an acceleration in the pace of move-ins. The portion of respondents reporting an acceleration of move-ins declined for independent living and assisted living, compared to 50% of independent living and 61% of assisted living in Wave 40. The pace of move-ins did increase for the memory care and nursing care segments, compared to 43% of memory care and 63% of nursing care in Wave 40. Since January, the shares of organizations that reported acceleration in nursing care move-ins increased significantly — from 21% in Wave 37 to 68% in Wave 41.

Despite the positive trend in the accelerated pace of nursing care move-ins, it is important to balance this with the corresponding pace of move-outs, which also showed an accelerated pace since Wave 39 in March.

In Wave 41, 54% of respondents indicated lead volumes above pre-pandemic levels, compared to 52% in Wave 40 and 33% in Wave 38 reflecting results in February. In Wave 41, large operators (26+ properties) had the greatest portion of respondents indicating lead volumes above pre-pandemic levels (60%). Mid-sized operators (10-25 properties) reported 57% with lead volume above pre-pandemic levels, followed by single-site operators (53%) and small-sized (2-9 properties) operators (46%). While this is an encouraging sign, this may be reflecting pent-up demand from earlier in the pandemic.

Wave 41 Survey Demographics

• Responses were collected between May 2 and May 27, 2022, from owners and executives of 60 senior housing and skilled nursing operators across the nation. Owner/operators with 1 to 10 properties comprise roughly one-half (51%) of the sample. Operators with 11 to 25 and 26 properties or more make up the rest of the sample (24% and 25%, respectively).
• More than one-half of respondents are exclusively for-profit providers (58%), approximately one-third operate not-for-profit senior housing and care organizations (29%), and 14% operate both.
• Many respondents in the sample report operating combinations of property types. Across their entire portfolios of properties, 74% of the organizations operate senior housing properties (IL, AL, MC), 31% operate nursing care properties, and 28% operate CCRCs (aka life plan communities).

Owners and C-suite executives of senior housing and care properties, please help us tell an accurate story about our industry’s performance. If you are an owner or C-suite executive of senior housing and care and have not received an email invitation to take the survey, please contact Ryan Brooks at rbrooks@nic.org to be added to the list of recipients.

NIC wishes to thank respondents for their valuable input and continuing support for this effort to provide the broader market with a sense of the evolving landscape as we recover from the pandemic. This is your survey! Please take the Wave 42 survey and suggest new questions for Wave 43.

NIC’s 2022 Leadership Huddle series continued May 25 with a deep dive into real estate market trends and an outlook on economic forces. Beth Mace, chief economist and director of outreach at NIC, was joined by Mike Acton, managing director of AEW Capital Management, and Mary Ludgin, head of Global Investment Research at Heitman, to discuss navigating federal monetary policy shifts, investment strategies amid record inflation, and opportunities in senior housing segmentation.

With the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds rate, Acton explained that now is the time to remember that these cycles happen, and experience should inform investment. “There’s a playbook – we know what we’re supposed to do as these events unfold,” he said. Ludgin added that experience with these cycles suggests investment is still possible: “In that environment, you can invest through debt as opposed to equity.”

Join the Next Complimentary NIC Leadership Huddle
Evolution of Market Segmentation
June 8, 2022 at 1:00 PM ET

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To combat the strongest inflation rate in 40 years, Ludgin explained that real estate is in a much better position than stocks and bonds. As supply and demand balance out, senior housing should prove to be an effective inflation hedge, according to Ludgin. Acton agreed, explaining that real assets are key to making smart investments and fighting future inflation.

Discussing the future of senior housing, Mace explained that diversification and segmentation in the industry present a number of opportunities for investors and developers. “It’s an exciting time in senior housing because you’re seeing a lot of change,” Mace said.

“There’s a lot of good opportunities for debt providers, equity providers, as well as operators.”

NIC Leadership Huddles reconvene June 8 with a timely discussion on market segmentation. Join us as “in the know” experts Melissa Andrews, Tom Gaston, and Ashley Fitzgerald discuss the continued evolution of the senior housing sector. Register today. And, watch all past leadership huddles in the NIC Leadership Huddle Archives.

Solid partnerships with high-quality healthcare and ancillary service providers can help create better resident outcomes, longer length of stay, and added revenue streams. But what’s the best way to establish and manage a network of providers in a fragmented care system?

In an insightful discussion, a panel of experienced senior housing industry executives answered questions about how to implement innovative and effective partnerships. The session—“Leaning in and Leveraging Resources for Successful Partnerships”—was held at the 2022 NIC Spring Conference in Dallas.

The discussion was moderated by Brian Cloch, CEO and founder of Innovative Health; and Amy Kaszak, president, Special Needs Plans, AllyAlign. Panelists included Alan Fairbanks, executive vice president, Bickford Senior Living; Sheryl Marcet, chief investment officer, Arcus Healthcare Partners; Laurie Geschrey, director of value-based care and partner relations, Pathway to Living; and Chirag Patel, MD, chief medical officer, Hansa Medical Group.

Here are the key Q&As from the session, edited for length and clarity.

Q: What are the benefits of partnership?

A: Partners add value. For example, Hansa Medical Group offers its medical care services in 120 senior living communities. Medical teams provide daily support to residents, reducing emergency room visits, and increasing the length of stay. The availability of medical support also eases the stress on the nursing and executive directors. “Our involvement reduces the workload of the staff,” said Dr. Patel. “Turnover is reduced.”

Good provider networks can also provide preventative care to help keep residents healthier. “The result is better resident satisfaction, and better staff satisfaction,” said Bickford’s Fairbanks.

Q: What are the advantages of value-based care partnerships?

A: With value-based care, a case manager follows the beneficiary through the continuum of care. That way, residents can be tracked and typically return to the community. Residents in the fee-for-service Medicare system who go to the hospital can get lost in the shuffle. “They may never some back to the community,” said Geschrey.

Equity provider Marcet said that coordinated care models translate to the bottom line. Capital partners are looking for best-in-class operators. “You’ll be left behind if you are not looking at coordinated care,” she said.

Q: What should you look for in preferred partners?

A: Partners must meet certain criteria, said Fairbanks. Bickford is looking for ways to create win-win partnerships to keep residents healthy, instead of having to react to emergencies. The goal is to incorporate home health, primary care, hospice and other services under one umbrella. “It’s a win for the staff,” said Fairbanks. “They aren’t scrambling to work with multiple doctors.” Geschrey added that providers must agree to work with each other.

Also, providers must be continually vetted and track outcomes. “You need providers you can trust,” said Geschrey. “Our job is to hold them accountable.”

Q: How do you talk to residents about using preferred providers?

A: Residents have to feel they have a choice about their care plan, the experts said. “Choice is about education,” said Cloch. Pathway to Living starts the process when prospective residents and their families come in for a tour. “We are proud of our coordinated care model,” said Geschrey. It’s important to highlight the advantages of the model and that a team is there to take care of their loved one, she added. Also, share results. The value-based care model has been operating in five Pathway communities for two years. About half of the residents are enrolled, reducing the days in the hospital or in rehab from 23%-25%.

For residents who want to keep their long-time doctor, Patel suggests to families that his group act as an in-house back up provider. When the family sees that it is easier to use the in-house doctor rather than taking the resident to outside appointments, the family will often switch to Patel’s group for primary care.

Q: Considering the staffing issue today, who manages the providers?

A: Bickford has a coordinator at the property. “We help them build a network,” said Fairbanks. As the primary care provider, Patel’s group coordinates care with the other providers along with the executive and nursing directors at the property.

Q: Are provider arrangements formal or informal agreements?

A: Both Pathway and Bickford have a written third-party provider agreement that includes operating standards. Patel’s group contracts with the insurance provider, not the building operator. There is, however, an understanding with the operator that Patel’s group will track data to show increased length of stay and reduced hospitalizations.

Conference attendees may access 2022 NIC Spring Conference recordings anytime.

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