SafelyYou Leverages AI to Reduce Falls & Costs: A Conversation with Tom Bang

Falls are a constant worry and costly problem for senior living owners and operators. The solution could include artificial intelligence (AI).

Falls are a constant worry and costly problem for senior living owners and operators. The solution could be better fall management with artificial intelligence (AI). San Francisco-based SafelyYou has developed an AI-enabled fall management program to detect and prevent falls. The SafelyYou system has already been installed in more than 100 communities, with the backing of REITs, insurers, and healthcare payors.

Ryan Brooks NIC

 

NIC Senior Principal, Healthcare Strategy, Ryan Brooks recently talked with SafelyYou Chief Strategy Officer Tom Bang about how the program works and the results. Here is a recap of their conversation.

 

Brooks: Can you tell me a bit about SafelyYou and how it differs from other products in the fall prevention and management space?

Bang: We’re using some of the most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) to address the industry’s most persistent risk challenges, beginning with falls. The financial and emotional costs are enormous.

We’re the first and only fall prevention and mitigation technology-enabled solution that’s been proven, as published and peer-reviewed, to reduce falls by 40% and emergency department visits resulting from falls by 80%. Notably, given these outcomes, we’re also the only solution paid for in part by REITS, liability insurers, and most recently, healthcare payors.

We’re changing the long-standing perception that falls can’t be avoided and must be accepted by providers, residents, and families. Communities and facilities using SafelyYou are winning move-ins, doubling length-of-stay, empowering staff, increasing staff efficiency while reducing risks and liabilities. Few solutions address so many of the needs of today’s operators.

Brooks: When was the company formed?

Tom Bang High RezBang: The company was launched in 2017 by George Netscher based on his research at the UC Berkeley Artificial Intelligence Research Lab. His family had a history of dementia, and he wanted to create a system with AI to help them.

Brooks: How big is the company?

Bang: We have more than 50 employees. We closed our Series A funding 120 days ago. In the third quarter of 2021, Omega Healthcare Investors led our Series B funding. The SafelyYou system will be installed in Omega facilities. We work with several operators and owners across more than 100 communities.

Brooks: What is your role?

Bang: As chief strategy officer, I’m focused on the ecosystem of REITs, insurers, payors, and all those entities that expect a return from the technology.

I’ve led several senior, and acute care technology providers, including It’s Never 2 Late, a person-centered engagement tool. I consulted with George Netscher, and after 60 days, I approached him and said I want to work for you. SafelyYou addresses the operator’s most pressing needs: occupancy, length-of-stay, staff efficiency, staff empowerment, and the ability to reduce risk and liabilities. As an operator, those are the things you worry about. We are mitigating falls, but the impact that falls have across the community places a substantial value on what we offer.

Brooks: Can you explain how the system works?

Bang: In the typical memory care/assisted living setting, we know that 94% of falls go unwitnessed. We could have put cameras in the residents’ rooms a decade ago to assess their capabilities and make appropriate changes. But we can’t do that from the standpoint of privacy compliance. With the advent of AI, machine learning enables a camera in the room to determine when a human being is on the floor. The video from the camera is deleted by the machine when the resident is not on the floor. But when a person is on the floor, the machine saves the previous 10 minutes of video. In that 10-minute vignette, the staff can see what happened and determine if the person might be injured. We know that 40% of the time, individuals who are not fully ambulatory are self-lowering, putting themselves on the floor. They may want to get to the bathroom or reach something across the room. They might be getting on the floor to exercise or pray. But as an operator, the only way you know how to treat the incident from a liability standpoint is to presume the person has fallen.

Brooks: What happens when the system detects someone on the floor?

Bang: As soon as the technology detects someone on the floor, the SafelyYou team receives an alert. They are available 24/7. They validate that someone is on the floor, and the community is alerted immediately. Other alert systems generate a lot of false positives, creating noise fatigue among the staff. Our system identifies someone on the floor with 99.7% accuracy. When staff gets an alert from SafelyYou, they know it’s the real thing, not noise. Someone is on the floor or was on the floor. We also now know that 17-20% of residents self-recover. The staff can view the video and see whether the resident is ok. They will still examine the resident, but the staff knows what happened and can determine the seriousness of the fall from the video review. If the person is uninjured, a trip to the emergency room is avoided.

Brooks: Since you are using a camera, are there still privacy concerns?

Bang: Both leading operator defense attorneys and liability insurance have embraced our unique solution. And state regulatory agencies also support what we’re doing. Some in fact have stated that our solution should be available in all communities. The only videos that exist are those where the machine detected an on-the-floor event. And those videos are only accessible by the operator’s approved staff. And of course, our solution is HIPPA compliant.

All residents and families are given a choice to opt-in. And our customers enjoy a 90% opt-in rate. We conduct educational sessions with residents and families. About 60-70% of families initially opt-in. But once other families see that they’re not getting calls at 3 a.m. or having to pay for emergency medical services (EMS), the opt-in rate increases.

Brooks: Does the system have other advantages?

Bang: Yes, the staff can see what may have caused the fall. We provide a weekly or bi-weekly fall huddle with a physical or occupational therapist to determine what changes can be made to the environment to make it safer and help prevent future falls.    

Brooks: In the senior housing and care industry, there is tremendous concern about labor shortages and workforce retention. In what ways does partnering with SafelyYou impact frontline staff? Does it make their job easier?

Bang: Yes, our customers tell us that we make the staff’s jobs easier, freeing them for other resident care while reducing emotional strain. Our customers also say the staff feels empowered. For the first time, the caregiver can now tell families not only how someone fell but also how their loved one’s falls will be mitigated going forward. Provider magazine recently published a piece showing that an empowered staff is key to retention.

Remember, 94% of all falls go unwitnessed when not using SafelyYou. And with our technology, we now know that over 40% of the time, someone’s mother, father, or loved who was found on the floor didn’t fall but self-lowered themselves.

Knowing that significantly reduces family concerns, emotional stress, and operator liability. There is also a dramatic efficiency gain for caregivers, first simply by reducing the number of falls but also by reducing reporting and the need for neurological checks in a skilled nursing setting. Think through that a minute. Out of 100 previous fall events, 40 of those are routinely mislabeled as falls! That’s a considerable staff burden and liability exposure, all due to mislabeled events in which operators were unknowingly putting themselves and their businesses in harm’s way.

Brooks: What types of properties is SafelyYou found in?

Bang: Though we began our go-to-market efforts in memory care, which remains our largest footprint, SafelyYou is being deployed in assisted living and skilled nursing settings at an increasing rate. After just a few years of commercialization, we’re now installed in more than 100 communities and facilities, with many of the industry’s leaders.

Brooks: How many units is SafelyYou currently monitoring?

Bang: We see 2,000 falls per month and have evaluated over 25,000 falls in total across our install base. As such, we are unequivocally the leading fall expert. Our occupational and physical therapists staff review all fall events and share their insight and expertise with our customers. We also conduct free monthly webinars, our National Fall Huddles, for the market at large.

Brooks: Falls are a significant concern in senior care facilities and can become significant liability issues. What impact does partnering with SafelyYou have on an operator’s liability?

Bang: Industry legal experts have advised that our 40% reduction in falls leads to a 20% decrease in liability claims. As a result, Church Mutual Insurance now subsidizes our technology for their customers. Further, our customers tell us they’re now armed for the first time with factual information—our videos and data—to reduce false narratives which they previously had no way of disputing.

For example, residents may tell their families they were on the floor for hours, but their loved ones received care from staff members within minutes. Or when a resident is admitted to the emergency room and the attending physician records that the injury is more likely from abuse than a fall, our video detection shows the injury was from a fall and not abuse.

We reduce claims for insurance carriers. We reduce unnecessary defensive medical claims for payors. And we enhance and protect the investments of owners. Exposure and liability are reduced across the ecosystem for operators and their sponsors.

Brooks: Does SafelyYou provide any training directly to staff to aid in their fall prevention abilities?

Bang: Yes, we provide initial training as part of our implementation. We then meet weekly or bi-weekly with our customers to review their falls and enhance their training. As I mentioned, we offer monthly webinars to the broader market to share what we are learning.

And finally, we’ve created SafelyYou University, a free video educational program available to all. It’s the first such program of its kind that combines dementia awareness training and fall prevention education.

Brooks: Activating a SafelyYou system can prevent unnecessary emergency department (ED) utilization, avoiding not only stress and anxiety but saving on out-of-pocket costs as well. Has SafelyYou quantified the cost savings to an average resident?

Bang: Yes, residents/patients and their families see direct out-of-pocket co-pay expense reduction from reduced EMS and emergency department visits. Our operators successfully use that to win competitive move-ins and gain some price elasticity.

But we haven’t stopped there! We’ve just finished our first claims analysis across one CMS region. The reduction in EMS and ED visits, and other direct medical claims, is estimated to produce a medical claims savings of over $7,000 per Medicare participant. All payors will benefit, including those sponsoring Medicare Advantage (MA) and Institutional Special Needs Plans (I-SNPs).

Brooks: What impact does activating a SafelyYou system have regarding resident length-of-stay?

Bang: Our customers have seen a two-fold increase in length-of-stay over several two-year studies. These customers experienced a four-fold increase in length-of-stay in the first 90 days in the same studies. Length-of-stay increases can have a significant impact on an operator’s profitability.

Brooks: Can you tell me about SafelyYou’s Fall Technology Grant Program?

Bang: We’ve been very proactive in addressing current market challenges for communities and facilities alike. The most critical concern right now is staffing, and SafelyYou eases the burden on care staff. Our grants are a way to support residents, staff, and fall management goals. Each grant covers the cost of implementation of SafelyYou and also includes a complete assessment of the current fall management program from our fall experts. In addition, we’ve also created “active camera pricing,” which selectively allows customers to enjoy significant discounts and to pay as their business improves with increased occupancy and resident participation, in part driven by SafelyYou.

Brooks: SafelyYou has partnered with products expert, Direct Supply, to create the Essential Guide for Mobility Aids: From Maximizing Function to Reducing Fall Risk. What’s the purpose of this guide, and who is it targeted towards?

Bang: Yes, as mentioned, we’ve partnered with many entities including, REITs, insurers, payors, and Direct Supply, to address this pervasive industry challenge. Many environmental factors create person-centered fall risks. Through our videos, staff better understand these factors, including the best use of mobility aids. Direct Supply is one of our great partners, committed to reducing falls to improve quality of care and reduce costs by advocating for enhanced services that our operators can now provide to their residents, patients and families.

  

Disappointing Gain in November Employment Report: Jobs Up by 210,000

Nonfarm payrolls have increased by 18.5 million, down 3.9 million from pre-pandemic level. The impact of Omicron variant is not reflected in November.

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 210,000 in November 2021. The consensus had been for an increase of 550,000. This was a sharp slowdown from October when jobs increased by 546,000 (originally reported as 531,000) and from September when jobs grew by an upwardly revised 379,000 (originally reported as 312,000).

Through November, the year-to-date monthly average job gain has been 555,000. Nonfarm payrolls have now increased by 18.5 million since their pandemic trough in April 2020 but are still down by 3.9 million or 2.6% from their pre-pandemic level in February 2020.The potential negative impact of the newly identified Omicron variant on jobs is not reflected in the November data. It’s far too early to tell. The data show that the labor market continues to be affected by the Delta variant especially in the hospitality sector. Indeed, leisure and hospitality payrolls edged up by a muted 23,000, following large gains earlier in the year. Employment in the leisure and hospitality industry increase by 164,000 in October and has risen by 2.54 million thus far in 2021, but it is still down by 1.3 million or 7.9% from February 2020.  

Health care added 2,000 jobs in November. Nursing and residential care facilities lost 11,000 jobs.   The broad health care sector is down by 450,000 since February 2020. Employment in with nursing and residential care facilities account for nearly all the loss. Jobs have been on the decline in nursing care since 2011.

2022_NNB_Unemployment_NBER_graph_1081x930

Separately and from a different survey, the Labor Department reported that the supply of labor as measured by the labor force rose by a solid 594,000 in November. With the household measure of employment rising by more than 1.1 million, the jobless rate fell 0.4 percentage point to 4.2% in November. The labor force is 2.4 million below the February 2020 level. The jobless rate is now 0.7 percentage points above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5% seen in February 2020, and well below the 14.7% peak seen in April 2020.

The underemployment rate or the U-6 jobless rate was 7.8% down from 8.3% in October 2021. This figure includes those who have quit looking for a job because they are discouraged about their prospects and people working part-time but desiring a full work week.

The labor force participation rate edged up 0.2 percentage point to 61.8% in November but remains 1.5 percentage points lower than in February 2020.

2022_NNB_EmploymentChange_NBER_graph_792x856

Further, weekly claims for unemployment benefits fell last month below their pre-pandemic numbers for the first time since the recovery started. The four-week moving average of benefit claims dropped to 238,750 — the lowest level since the middle of March 2020, when the pandemic’s effect on the labor market began to gain speed.

Nevertheless, businesses continue to struggle to find staff. The BLS JOLTS data for September showed that there were 10.4 million job openings and the highest quit rate on record.

Concerns about rising wage costs will remain after this report. Indeed, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.08 in October to $31.03, a gain of 4.8% from a year earlier.

Monthly NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot Tracks Agility and Evolution

From March through May, the headlines reflect cautious optimism of stabilization, which then begins to take hold in June 2021, as demand improved.

 

A Pandmeic Initiative

In spring 2020, responding to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, NIC launched numerous initiatives to help senior living leaders understand and improve their responses to the crisis. Given the pace of change impacting the industry, NIC began to produce a high volume of relevant and timely data and analysis more frequently than ever before. In just a few months, NIC produced an entire suite of resources aimed  at improving access to data and analysis relevant to the impact of COVID-19 on the senior housing and care industry. Part of that effort was to release the NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot  reports, which, like several other pandemic-related NIC initiatives, is still being produced today.  

Each monthly report, based on three-month rolling data from NIC affiliate NIC MAP Vision, provides the most timely comprehensive review of the sector’s market  fundamentals and trends. In addition, the report provides economic trends, inventory growth data, and occupancy rates, with analysis and insights from the NIC Analytics team, including myself and NIC Chief Economist, Beth Mace. In addition to analysis of the most recent data, the reports show three-month rolling data on either total or stabilized occupancy for both seniors housing and nursing care properties over the prior 13 months, offering a perspective on broader trends.  

Today, Intra-Quarterly Snapshot reports continue to provide a powerful and closely watched means to stay ahead of industry trends, even as senior housing markets sustain a fast pace of evolution and adaptation, amidst an apparent recovery. 

Intra-Quarterly Snapshot Headlines Track the Trends 

A look back at Intra-Quarterly Snapshot headlines, pulled from the top of every report published over the eighteen months, illustrates just how well these reports have tracked with industry trends, practically in real time. Each headline, as charted below, tracks with the key trends and inflection points over the pandemic to date. The The market’s initial contraction was identified in the first Intra-Quarterly Snapshot, in April 2020, and developed over subsequent months, through February 2021. From March through May, the headlines reflect cautious optimism of stabilization, which then begins to take hold in June 2021, as demand improved. From July of this year, each report has reflected improvements in occupancy rates. 
IQ Headlines_Heatmap_April 2020 - October 2021_Good

If we chart just the changes in occupancy and stabilized occupancy, as reported in Intra-Quarterly Snapshot headlines, we find similar tracking with current market trends. 

Changes in occupancy/stabilized occupancy as reported in Intra-Quarterly Snapshot headlines.

Table_Heatmap_IQ Headlines_1475x185

All-occupancy is defined by NIC MAP® as percent of existing inventory’s units that are occupied by residents as of the end of the month. Stabilized occupancy is defined by NIC MAP® as the occupancy of properties that are (a) at least two years old, or (b) if less than two years old, properties that have achieved occupancy of at least 95.0% since their opening. 

Phase 1: March 2020 to March 2021 

From March 2020 to March 2021, the largest occupancy decreases were reported in the April and July 2020 and January 2021 reporting periods. During this period, senior housing all-occupancy fell by 8.7 percentage points (pps) and stabilized occupancy fell by 8.5pps. Meanwhile, senior housing inventory increased by 2.8%, or 17,950 units. Demand through this period, as measured by occupied units of senior housing properties for the NIC MAP Primary Markets decreased by 7.5% or 42,344 units.

Phase 2: March 2021 to June 2021 

During this time period as the vaccine rollout was nearly completed for most residents in seniors housing and skilled nursing properties, occupancy started to stabilize but continued to be challenged due to inventory growth. Quarterly absorption (% change in occupied units) turned green for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. Senior housing occupancy remained largely unchanged, mainly due to inventory growth offsetting demand growth. The inventory of senior housing properties for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased by 0.7% or 4,354 units and demand increased by 0.6% or 3,364 units.

Phase 3: June 2021 to September 2021 

Occupancy started to improve as demand rebounded over the Summer of 2021. The industry registered its strongest increase in the number of occupied units since NIC MAP began reporting the data back in 2005. The inventory of senior housing properties for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased by 0.5% or 3,441 units and demand increased by 2.3% or 12,318 units. During this period, occupancy saw the largest quarterly growth since 2005 of 1.4pps.

To view what is happening today, and to gain insight into the continuation of occupancy gains, see the recently released October 2021 Intra-Quarterly Snapshot report. 

Future Outlook 

The October Intra-Quarterly Snapshot reveals that senior housing stabilized occupancy rose for the fourth consecutive reporting period. Notably, the stabilized occupancy rate for senior housing increased to 82.6% in the October 2021 reporting period for the NIC MAP Primary Markets, up 1.6pps from its time series low of 81.0% in the June 2021 reporting period and 0.4pps from the September 2021 reporting period on a three-month rolling basis. Senior housing stabilized occupancy continued the road to recovery but remained seven full percentage points below pre-pandemic March 2020 levels of 89.6%. 

We cannot yet know how pandemic-derived challenges will unfold in future months, or when they will be fully behind us, but as the Intra-Quarterly Snapshot’s headlines reveal, the senior housing industry has weathered this extremely difficult period and begun the path to recovery.

At the 2021 NIC Fall Conference, senior housing constituents, while addressing the most pressing challenges facing the industry, nevertheless demonstrated reasons for optimism over the short, intermediate, and long term. The positive gains in occupancy over the last four intra-quarterly reporting periods provide a bullish indicator that the senior housing market outlook remains positive. Taken in combination with other market realities, such as the resilience of need-based demand, the ready availability of affordable financing, and major demographic tailwinds, conference attendees were understandably ready to look to the future with excitement and renewed positive energy. 

Many conference attendees reflected on the past eighteen months, which for many may have been the toughest period in memory.  Analysts may agree that the senior housing sector underwent perhaps its most severe era of demand loss and uncertainty on record. However, as revealed in every month’s Intra-Quarterly Snapshot, the industry is clearly demonstrating that, through innovation, collaboration, creativity, and risk tolerance, it is agile and resilient enough to bounce back even from that.  

The data underlying every Intra-Quarterly Snapshot report is available to NIC MAP Vision clients. Data highlights, along with expert analysis and commentary, are provided in the complimentary Intra-Quarterly Snapshot monthly publication, available for download on nic.org.

The November 2021 IQ Snapshot report will be released on nic.org on Thursday, December 9, 2021 at 5:00pm. 

Identifying Trends in CMS Skilled Nursing Penalties

The primary tool CMS has for enforcing care standards at skilled nursing properties are civil monetary penalties, fines for facilities out of compliance.

Updated November 23, 2021 (original blog posted June 29, 2021).

The primary tool CMS has for enforcing care standards at skilled nursing properties are civil monetary penalties (CMPs), which are essentially fines for facilities found to be out of compliance with CMS care standards. Based on a national average, CMS penalties for skilled nursing properties had been on the rise from 2016 to the third quarter of 2019.

As the country began to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, and the public health emergency was announced, the national average of CMS penalties declined. This was likely a reflection of the more collaborative, less-punitive surveys that took place while surveyors – the CMS regulatory staff who assess compliance with Medicare health and safety regulations – and operators alike learned about COVID-19, it’s spread, and the best practices regarding infection control, PPE stock, and sanitation protocols.

The COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) was first declared on January 31, 2020 and was most recently renewed for an additional 90 days on October 15, 2021. With no other renewals, this would bring the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency to a duration just a few weeks shy of two entire years.

CMS SN Penalty

Source: Data.cms.gov; Nursing Home Services Data Archive, 2016-2021

After a downward trend in average CMS skilled nursing penalty during the first ten months of the Public Health Emergency, this metric has now shifted, trending upwards for the past 11 months. The most recently released data from CMS’ Provider Data Set, shows the average skilled nursing penalty at $18,551 for October 2021. This is $2,080, or 12.6%, higher than the pre-Public Health Emergency high mark of $16,471 reported in August 2019.

Two key changes occurred during the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency. First, the understanding about COVID-19 and how to best protect residents grew dramatically. This understanding occurred at many levels – the seniors housing and care sectors, the industry’s regulatory bodies, as well as federal, state, and local governments that all had to get up to speed quickly on best practices regarding the novel coronavirus.

Once that learning curve had been achieved, average CMS skilled nursing penalties began to rise steeply. The rise in average penalty coincided with early vaccination efforts for skilled nursing residents and staff and continued to increase to encourage operators to meet higher staffing ratios, newly identified infection control practices, and sanitation protocols, among other criteria.

In addition to the increasing average CMS skilled nursing penalty, another significant trend has materialized in 2021 – a steep rise in per diem, or per-day, penalties. Skilled nursing properties can be penalized through the imposition of a CMP for either the number of days that a facility has been out of compliance with a federal requirement (per-day or per-diem), for each episode of noncompliance (per-instance), or CMS can deny payments for new admissions.

Distribution of CMPs

Source: CMS Quality, Certification, & Oversight (QCOR) Reports

In 2017, guidelines were changed to set per-instance CMPs, rather than per-day, as the default penalty. Per-day penalties are often applied retrospectively and can accumulate to significant fines. Although per-day penalties remained the recommended approach for major violations, their overall use has been reasonably limited until 2021.

With a new federal government administration and new leadership at both CMS and HHS, we may be witnessing the return of a stricter survey process. While penalties from CMS are an essential tool for ensuring skilled nursing properties are complying with care standards and are protecting their residents, both the approach to surveying and severity of enforcement may be changing.

Executive Survey Insights  |   Wave 34:  October 4 – November 7, 2021

Wave 34 shows 33% of organizations lead volumes reaching pre-pandemic levels. 41% of respondent organizations show increases in construction lending.

“Lead volumes are improving. In Wave 34 of the survey, one-third of organizations report lead volumes reaching pre-pandemic levels (33%), up from just one-fifth back in April 2021 (20%). During the pandemic new construction lending had slowed sharplyA recent increase in construction lending is reflected in the Wave 34 survey where 41% of respondent organizations now expect their development pipelines to increase. However, challenges to the practicality of new construction and timelines persist due to labor and key materials shortages and relatively high costs. Future surveys will help shed light on whether pent-up demand for senior housing as supported by an historically high rate of net absorption reported by NIC MAP Vision in 3Q 2021 will continue to usher in occupancy to fill pandemic vacancies or will the effects of normal seasonal impacts on admissions come into play. 

 Lana Peck, Senior Principal, NIC 

NIC’s Executive Survey of operators in senior housing and skilled nursing is designed to deliver transparency into market fundamentals in the senior housing and care space as market conditions continue to change. This Wave 34 survey includes responses collected October 4 to November 7, 2021, from owners and executives of 74 small, medium, and large senior housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation, representing hundreds of buildings and thousands of units across respondents’ portfolios of properties. 

Detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey and a PDF of the report charts can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights 

Wave 34 Summary of Insights and Findings
  • Through the 34 Waves of the NIC Executive Survey Insights report — that started at the beginning of the pandemic in March 24, 2020 and has continued through the current survey date of November 7, 2021 — the results have closely corresponded with the broad incidence of COVID-19 infection cases in the United States. This is demonstrated in the timeline below that shows the share of organizations reporting an increase in the pace of move-ins during the prior 30-days. For example, the Wave 19 survey (which collected responses from December 28, 2020 to January 10, 2021) showed that when the COVID-19 vaccine had begun to be distributed across the country through the Long-Term Care Vaccination Program, the pace of move-ins began to accelerate and continued to do so through Wave 31. However, in Wave 32, the shares of organizations reporting an acceleration in the pace of move-ins in the past 30-days dropped notably, presumably due to the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant primarily among the unvaccinated. In the Wave 33 survey (representing operator experience in the month of August) respondents reported a notable increase in move-ins compared with the Wave 32 survey as Delta variant infections waned and vaccinations ticked upThe most recent survey results were largely similar to Wave 33.  

Wave 34 Report Charts_Final_Slides_Page_02_croppedV2

  • Lead volumes are improving. In Wave 34, one-third of organizations had lead volume at pre-pandemic levels (33%), up from just one out of five back in April 2021 (20%).   
    Wave 34 Report Charts_Final_Slides_Page_03_cropped
  • By care segment, roughly 50% of Wave 34 respondents with independent living and/or assisted living units reported that the pace of move-ins accelerated in the past 30-days (similar to the previousWave 33, survey). However, the memory care and nursing care segments did not see the same pace of acceleration. While slightly more organizations with nursing care beds saw an acceleration in the pace of moveins from the previous survey (42% up from 37%), 22% to 27% of organizations with nursing care beds have reported deceleration in the pace of move-ins since the Wave 32 survey. 

Wave 34 Report Charts_Final_Slides_Page_04_cropped

  • As shown in the chart above, fewer organizations with memory care units saw an acceleration in move-ins since the Wave 33 survey (38% vs. 48%), and shown in the chart below, notably more saw no change or a decline in occupancy during the same timeframe.  
  • In Wave 34, roughly 50% of organizations with independent living and/or assisted living units reported higher occupancy rates. Organizations with nursing care beds reported equal levels of increases and decreases in occupancy (38%, respectively).  

Wave 34 Report Charts_Final_Slides_Page_05_cropped

  • As shown in the chart below, most occupancy increases were between 0.1 and 3 percentage points. Of note however, approximately 20% of organizations with assisted living and/or memory care units saw occupancy increase three percentage points or more 

Wave 34 Report Charts_Final_Slides_Page_06V2

  • The NIC Executive Survey Insights has asked organizations about their development plans since near the beginning of the pandemic. In Wave 3 (April 13 – 19, 2020), only 15% of operators expected their development pipelines to increase, primarily due to projects already underway. During the pandemic, new construction lending had slowed sharply. NIC Analytics recently released the second quarter 2021 NIC Lending Trends Report, which notes that newly closed senior housing construction loans increased by 46.7% on a same-store, quarter-over-quarter basis—the highest recorded quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of 2017. The recent uptick in construction lending is reflected in the Wave 34 survey where 41% now expect their development pipelines to increase. However, challenges to new construction continue due to labor and key materials shortages and higher costs largely associated with supply chain disruptions, tariffs in some instances and rising energy prices.

Wave 34 Report Charts_Final_Slides_Page_07V2

  • NOI has been pressured for many operators due to the impact of labor shortages and higher wages on expenses, the pandemic-related decline in occupancy rates, and the inability to grow rents. In the current and prior survey, respondents were asked how much they expect their operating margins to increase or decrease in the next six months. Roughly half of respondents (49% and 47%) indicated they expect operating margins to increase. However, slightly more operators in Wave 34 anticipate smaller increases than in Wave 33 (40% between 1% and 5%).

Wave 34 Report Charts_Final_Slides_Page_08V2

  • A new question was added to the Wave 34 survey to gauge operator interest in diversifying their products to serve a different resident. While roughly two-thirds of organizations stated that they were not considering changing their product mix (64%), nearly one-quarter (23%) reported considering expanding their offerings toward lower acuity settings.  

Wave 34 Report Charts_Final_09V2

Featured Survey Comments 

At the end of each survey, several respondents offer detailed comments that add informative detail to their responses. The following set of quotes is an abbreviated selection of the Wave 34 comments: 

  • Our independent living is thriving, with the duplex home expansion filling up more quickly than anticipated. We intend to add more IL units in the next couple of years, once that project is complete. Staffing concerns have led us to hold admissions at times in our assisted living facilities, hurting our already poor occupancy there. At the beginning of October, we put a very substantial wage increase into effect to try to aid our recruitment and retention efforts. We believe it’s beginning to pay some dividends, but somewhat slowly.”
  • Regarding SNF census, our percentage occupied is not a result of lack of inquiries, but a direct result of lack of labor. 
  • It appears deaths due to COVID-19 may have attenuated a modest amount of available high acuity seniors requiring AL/MC. Normal annual move outs in the 40 – 45 percentage range has resumed due to typical death and discharge(s) to skilled nursing. Admissions, while vastly improved since spring, are slow to recover to preCOVID populations. It may be that our years of continuous wait list may only recover by the end of 2022 to 88 – 90 % stabilization.” 
Wave 34 Survey Demographic

Responses were collected between October 4 and November 72021, from owners and executives of 74 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Owner/operators with 1 to 10 properties comprise over one-half of the sample (58%). Operators with 11 to 25 and 26 properties or more make up 26and 16% of the samplerespectively

  • One-half of respondents are exclusively for-profit providers (51%); about one-third operate not-for-profit (36%) and 13% operate both. 
  • Many respondents in the sample report operating combinations of property types. Across their entire portfolios of properties, 73% of the organizations operate seniors housing properties (IL, AL, MC), 30% operate nursing care properties, and 37% operate Life Plan Communities (aka CCRCs).

Owners and C-suite executives of seniors housing and care properties, please help us tell an accurate story about our industry’s performance.   

The current survey is available and takes under ten minutes to complete. If you are an owner or C-suite executive of seniors housing and care and have not received an email invitation to take the survey, please contact Lana Peck at lpeck@nic.org to be added to the list of recipients. 

NIC wishes to thank survey respondents for their valuable input and continuing support for this effort to bring clarity and create a comprehensive and honest narrative in the seniors housing and care space at a time when trends are continuing to change in our sector.