Seniors Housing Occupancy Continued to Improve In August Reporting Period

While the Delta variant has changed the narrative and affected move-in rates in some seniors housing properties, overall occupancy and demand seem to be experiencing positive momentum.

The path to recovery is never a straight line. While the Delta variant has changed the narrative once again and reportedly affected move-in rates in some seniors housing properties, overall occupancy and demand seem to be experiencing positive momentum.

[Note: this blog was updated as of September 17, 2021 to reflect revised data.]

 

Seniors Housing Intra-Quarterly Occupancy

The recently released NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot report shows that the overall occupancy rate for seniors housing increased to 79.9% in the August 2021 reporting period (June-July-August 2021) for the NIC MAP Primary Markets on a three-month rolling basis, according to Intra-Quarterly NIC MAP Data, released by NIC MAP Vision. This was an eight-month high and placed the all-occupancy rate 1.2 percentage points above its record low of 78.7% in the June 2021 reporting period. Notably, it was 7.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level of 87.4%, however.

Exhibit 1 below shows that between the reporting periods of April 2020 and March 2021, seniors housing occupancy decreased across most of the NIC MAP 31 Primary Markets, if not all. However, and similar to the annual absorption trend depicted in Exhibit 1, the pattern reversed in April 2021, when seniors housing occupancy measured higher or stable compared with the prior month (reporting period) across most of the NIC MAP 31 Primary Markets.

Unexpectedly, the pattern changed in June 2021 but quickly skewed towards markets with increasing occupancy rates in July 2021. This change in June 2021 was largely due to new supply outstripping demand across some of the NIC MAP 31 Primary Markets. The most recent data show that in the August 2021 reporting period, occupancy increased or was unchanged in 27 of the 31 Primary Markets for seniors housing compared with July 2021, while only four markets saw a decrease in occupancy over the same period.

To learn more about inventory growth and how select NIC MAP metropolitan markets have performed in August 2021, download the August 2021 NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot Report.

Exhibit 1 – Seniors housing intra-quarterly occupancy distribution

Senior Housing Intra-Quarterly Occupancy Aug 2021

 

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Executive Survey Insights | Wave 32: August 9 to September 6, 2021

NIC’s Executive Survey of operators in seniors housing and skilled nursing is designed to deliver transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space as market conditions continue to change.

 “The pace of move-ins has slowed as the COVID-19 delta variant spreads primarily among the unvaccinated. In Wave 32, about one-quarter of organizations with assisted living apartments and/or nursing care beds, and about one in five with memory care units reported a deceleration in the pace of move-ins across their portfolio of properties in the past 30-days. Nursing care occupancy has taken a jolt with nearly 40% of organizations indicating that occupancy declined.Respondents to the Wave 32 survey want prospective residents and their family members to know that senior living is safe. Much has been learned over course of the pandemic and operating with COVID-19 has become routine. Operators want the media to know that they are better equipped to care for residents than last when little was known about the virus—and infection mitigation protocols are working. Indeed, according to NIC data analyst Omar Zahraoui in a recent blog post, overall case counts within skilled nursing facilities relative to cases among the general population on August 1 remained low.”

Lana Peck, Senior Principal, NIC

NIC’s Executive Survey of operators in seniors housing and skilled nursing is designed to deliver transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space as market conditions continue to change. This Wave 32 survey includes responses collected August 9 to September 6, 2021, from owners and executives of 92 small, medium, and large seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation, representing hundreds of buildings and thousands of units across respondents’ portfolios of properties.

Detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey and a PDF of the report charts can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights.

Wave 32 Summary of Insights and Findings

  • As shown in the timeline below, across the survey time series from March 24, 2020 to September 6, 2021, NIC’s Executive Survey Insights results have shown clear trends that have corresponded with the broad incidence of COVID-19 infection cases in the United States. By Wave 18 (in the latter half of December), the COVID-19 vaccine had begun to be distributed across the country through the Long-Term Care Vaccination Program and more and more respondents noted that the pace of move-ins accelerated in Waves 19 through 31. In Wave 32, the shares of organizations reporting an acceleration in the pace of move-ins in the past 30-days dropped notably, presumably due to the spread of the COVID-19 delta variant primarily among the unvaccinated.

  • Between roughly 30% and 40% of organizations report that the pace of move-ins accelerated in the past 30-days—compared to roughly 55% and 60% in Wave 31. Of note, about one-quarter of organizations with assisted living apartments and/or nursing care beds, and about one in five with memory care units reported a deceleration in the pace of move-ins. However, more than half (59%) of organizations with independent living residences reported no change in the pace of move-ins.
  • Currently, about 20% of respondents note that their organization has a backlog of residents waiting to move in, up from about 10% in Wave 28 (5/3-5/16, 2021), but down from about 35% in Wave 16 (11/9-11/22, 2020). Furthermore, one-third of organizations reported a decline in lead volume in the past 30-days specifically due to COVID-19 and new variants (32%).

  • In Wave 32 between roughly 45% and 55% of organizations with independent living, assisted living and/or memory care units reported an increase in occupancy across their portfolios of properties in the past 30-days. However, only about one-third (32%) saw an increase in nursing care occupancy. This is down significantly from Wave 30 (6/14-7/11) when three-quarters of organizations with nursing care beds saw occupancy increases in the 30-days prior (76%).
  • Indeed, of each of the four care segments, nursing care occupancy has taken a jolt with nearly 40% of organizations indicating that occupancy declined across their portfolios of properties in Wave 32 (and about 20% reported a decline in occupancy of 3-percentage points or more).

  • The chart below shows the shares of organizations with nursing care beds that saw an increase, decrease or no change in occupancy, across their portfolio of properties in the past 30-days, across 32 waves of survey data since near the beginning of the pandemic.
  • The shares of organizations with nursing care occupancy declines in the Waves 31 and 32 surveys show a similar trend compared to Waves 11 and 12 (8/17-9/27, 2020) leading up to the Fall surge in COVID-19 cases across the country. Whether or not the pattern of declining occupancy rates will continue to trend is uncertain until the delta variant spread is muted by increasing vaccinations and natural immunity from prior infection.

  • A new question was asked in Wave 32: “A year and a half into the pandemic, my organization wants (a) prospective residents/family and (b) the media and others to know ___ about seniors housing…” Regarding what operators want prospective residents/family to know, most respondents cited senior living is safe/being better than being isolated at home. Most respondents want the media to know that they are better equipped to care for residents than they were last year, and infection protocols are working. Some select quotes from respondents are shown below:

Wave 32 Survey Demographics

  • Responses were collected between August 9 and September 6, 2021, from owners and executives of 92 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Owner/operators with 1 to 10 properties comprise roughly two-thirds (63%) of the sample. Operators with 11 to 25 and 26 properties or more make up 20% and 16% of the sample, respectively.
  • Approximately one-half of respondents are exclusively for-profit providers (51%); more than one-third operate not-for-profit (37%) and 12% operate both.
  • Many respondents in the sample report operating combinations of property types. Across their entire portfolios of properties, 66% of the organizations operate seniors housing properties (IL, AL, MC), 23% operate nursing care properties, and 37% operate CCRCs (aka Life Plan Communities).

 

Referenced by The Wall Street Journal on August 31 — Senior Housing Industry Faces Higher Costs as It Plays Lead Role in Vaccine Mandates — NIC’s Executive Survey Insights continues to be closely watched by the media, and we ask for your continued support.

The current survey is available and takes under ten minutes to complete. If you are an owner or C-suite executive of seniors housing and care and have not received an email invitation to take the survey, please contact Lana Peck at lpeck@nic.org to be added to the list of recipients.

NIC wishes to thank survey respondents for their valuable input and continuing support for this effort to bring clarity and create a comprehensive and honest narrative in the seniors housing and care space at a time when trends are continuing to change in our sector.

Wipfli and Mueller Prost Combine Teams, Expand Healthcare Services

Wipfli and Mueller Prost, two accounting and consulting firms known for their specialized healthcare services, announced in June that they were combining into a single firm.

Top 20 firm helps turn obstacles into opportunities.

To learn about the direction of the growing firm, Ryan Brooks, NIC senior principal, healthcare strategy, recently talked with three Wipfli healthcare service leaders:Ryan Brooks Headshot 2020 Tiffany Karlin, partner, consulting services and director of healthcare; John Oeltjen, partner, risk management services; and Shasta McClary-Brocious, healthcare billing supervisor and reimbursement consultant.

Here’s a recap of that conversation:

Brooks: As an organization focused on providing assurance, accounting, tax, and consulting solutions, can you tell me about the range of services that you provide specifically for senior living providers?

Karlin: I’d like to answer that question by pointing out three key services we’re providing – and how we’re different from other firms.

First, we provide core services, starting with tax and accounting services. But our core services, along with our of our consulting services, are provided by healthcare specialists with a deep understanding of the senior living and skilled nursing industry.

That specific experience and knowledge means we’ve also been able to handle back-office services, such as billing, accounting, Medicare and Medicaid cost reports, and CFO duties for healthcare clients. We have teams specialized in these services, and our expertise runs deep.

Second, our M&A consultants are helping healthcare leaders navigate the changing merger and acquisition market. We focus heavily on business valuation and transition, and succession planning which involves everything from due diligence and negotiations to helping source buyers from Wipfli’s connections in private equity. Our new, expanded team also includes associates from Wipfli Financial Advisors and Wipfli Corporate Finance. They all work together to maximize financial results and minimize risk.Karlin_Tiffany-3916

Third, we’re entering a world of reimbursement optimization with value-based payments. Operators of skilled nursing, assisted living, continuing care, and affordable housing properties are asking what the future will look like and whether they’re positioned correctly. We focus on the full continuum of care, including FQHC health clinics, hospitals, home health, hospice. So, we can consult on partnership opportunities, operations, clinical matters, and financial considerations.

Brooks: Wipfli has expanded the firm several times over the last two years. Can you tell our readers what’s next and how Wipfli leaders are positioning for additional growth?

Karlin: Wipfli has always had a strong strategy of going to market by industry, recognizing that our clients don’t need cookie cutter, off-the-shelf solutions. Wipfli’s teams understand the nuances between manufacturing, tribal casinos, nonprofit organizations and — of course — healthcare, to name a few. The business intelligence, accounting, compliance or cyber needs, for example, are so different for every industry and that need for specialized knowledge is only increasing with all the new challenges due to the pandemic.

Oeltjen: We’ve already seen a lot of excitement among our clients because now with Wipfli we can offer a greater depth and breadth of services. And that holds true in the M&A arena. More and more clients want additional business services. For example, we might be conducting due diligence as part of the M&A service, but the client may ask us to look at whether the billing systems andOeltjen_John-Mueller Prost processes are reliable. Our organizational performance specialists were able to evaluate one client’s ability to change as part of our due diligence. It’s not that expensive and it’s often overlooked when a deal is being done, but it’s the type of assessment our team performs all the time.

Brooks: What changes do you see in the merger and acquisition market for healthcare? How are these changes affecting the services you provide?

Oeltjen: Even before the pandemic started, more venture capital, private equity funds and institutional investors were trying to determine how they can be more active in healthcare and, in particular, the senior healthcare arena. The pandemic slowed the process a bit, but now investors are back. They see a tremendous opportunity to help drive profits in the healthcare space by differentiating services through technology and new methods of service delivery.

Karlin: Nonprofits are looking at consolidation and partnerships too. My East and West coast clients wonder whether large health centers will be a thing of the past, though the Midwest is still focused on this model. Also, home health was already popular with investors before the pandemic. Entrepreneurs see what’s going on and want to be in that market. As a good business partner it is our responsibility to help our clients but also to point out how they need to be prepared. Do they have an administrator who knows how to operate this business? Do they understand the market? We sit down with them to assess the risk before they dive in.

Brooks: Are you seeing a greater demand for due diligence services considering the COVID-19 pandemic?

Oeltjen: Yes, there has been an uptick in demand, the amount of new activity has been significant compared to past years. That being said, COVID-19 has slowed the demand for due diligence services. There was latent demand and now investors think capital gains tax rates will go higher. The deal pace is explosive, along with a general increase in the sophistication of investors in this market.

Karlin: There has been a pause due to COVID-19 as operators waited to see if more government support would be forthcoming from the Provider Relief Fund (PRF). They wondered if they should sell now or see if they would get more help. There is another consideration. Operators must hold the monies from the PRF and Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) until it is forgiven. A change in ownership raises the question of who gets the money when it’s needed to care for residents and expenses are rising. Changing rules have created a lot of chaos. For example, a client acquired a property in 2019 but the Tax ID # still listed the previous owner. Technically, the new owner can’t have the money even though he operated the property all of 2020. Those are extreme challenges. It’s rather complicated and there are a lot of unknowns about how to get a deal done under those circumstances, causing healthcare leaders to consider hiring firms like ours, with expertise in regulations.

Brooks: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Wipfli conducted an analysis on the impact ICD-10 coding played in the new Patient-Driven Payment Model (PDPM) for skilled nursing providers. CMS has delayed PDPM adjustments until 2023, but what should skilled nursing providers know now prior to these adjustments being implemented? What should they be preparing for?SLM_with-background

McClary-Brocious: I’ve been talking with quite a few providers. From a clinical perspective, it’s all about documentation. We have to make sure documentation is being completed and reviewed. Documentation has to capture all of the changes being made to the Minimum Data Set (MDS) process. Providers need to conduct their own due diligence internally and make sure their documentation supports all the ICD-10 codes now being reported on the MDS.

The other thing to consider is benchmarking. Compare the facility to the surrounding market and the national market. Is the facility accepting patients at the same acuity level as other facilities? Is the facility accepting higher acuity patients to maximize reimbursement? A comparison provides a better understanding of whether any adjustment in PDPM could impact the facility.

Also, looking again at documentation, studies from CMS show a 30% drop in therapy overall. Group therapy minutes grew 30% and then leveled off with COVID-19 because of social distancing. CMS did recognize that patient care didn’t suffer from this reduction in minutes. But we’ve been putting specific codes on claims to let CMS know that it was a COVID-19-related claim. That will make it easier for CMS to pull those dates of service and conduct post payment audit reviews, which is when the agency will request that documentation. So, now is the time to make sure everything is in order before CMS conducts an audit.

Lastly, providers need to re-examine their therapy contracts. PDPM shifted the whole payment system. We are no longer looking at volume-based care. It’s now all value-based care. Therapy contracts have to be based on value.

Brooks: CMS revised their survey process to ensure skilled nursing properties are properly prepared to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. What are the biggest concerns for skilled nursing properties regarding survey and certification issues? What is the value of bringing in a consultant to prepare for an upcoming survey?

McClary-Brocious: The value piece is simple. The operator is ensuring that a neutral party is testing the facility on that process. The consultant does a trial run to look at infection control as a surveyor would do. The survey process is detailed in 100 slides that are available to everyone. A consultant can actually test whether the process has been implemented correctly. A consultant can also prepare the operator to implement corrections.

Karlin: Everything in this environment is about staffing, staffing, staffing. The staffing shortage is here and won’t go away anytime soon. With survey mandates and continued discussions about workplace vaccine mandates for skilled nursing workers, we will continue to face staffing concerns.

Current staff also must also meet the daily safety requirements around COVID-19. They are working longer hours, and staff burnout is a major concern. Some stats show that we could be expecting a loss of one-third of the care delivery teams. Operators need to get their teams fully engaged.

An external firm like ours can provide outside perspective and a second opinion, but also mitigate some level of risk and regulatory exposure. Hiring a consultant shows the leadership team is committed to the staff. The consultant serves as a resource for the staff to support their journey. Hopefully, we will see a light at the end of the tunnel in regard to staffing, but we’re going to have to think outside the box to meet staffing ratios.

Brooks: Is there anything else you’d like our readers to know?

Karlin: These are unique times — where the challenges are great, but so are the opportunities. We can seize those opportunities, if we elevate ourselves from the day-to-day details to recognize what possible opportunity looks like. I would encourage owner/operators to take that moment. Take that opportunity to collaborate with like-minded individuals in the industry to figure out how to improve the staffing situation. What new products, such as telehealth, have changed the way we do business?

This is a scary time, but it has also brought the senior service market to the forefront. This is our chance now to sculpt the conversation. We can say, look at us. We not only survived the pandemic. We handled it well. We have a high vaccination rate, and we’re looking into the future about how to deliver care better. Operators can leverage consultants, other partnerships, and technology to thrive into the future and show the population how strong an industry this really is.

 

Seniors Housing Investment Returns Remain Weak in Second Quarter 2021

The total investment return for the seniors housing sector was a positive 0.54% in the second quarter of 2021.

The total investment return for the seniors housing sector was a positive 0.54% in the second quarter of 2021. This marked the fourth consecutive quarterly gain after one quarter of negative returns in the second quarter of 2020 when total returns were negative 1.00%; that marked the first negative total return since 2012 and prior to that in 2009.

The income return in the second quarter was the same as in the first quarter, but at 0.78% it was the smallest quarterly gain on record as far back as 2003. The valuation (capital/appreciation) return fell 0.24%, the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. This contrasts with the NPI and apartments, where the valuation return turned positive in the fourth quarter and saw gains of 2.54% and 2.71%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2021. Many investors have reduced their appreciation expectations for seniors housing as the impact of the coronavirus has weighed heavily on their view of the sector. The valuation return is the change in value net of any capital expenditures incurred during the quarter.

The one-year valuation return for seniors housing was a positive 2.26%, the strongest annual return since the onset of the pandemic in the second quarter of 2020. The 2.26% total return compared favorably to retail (-1.32%) and hotel (-8.27%), but was smaller than the other major property types, including the overall NPI (7.37%). Meanwhile, the industrial sector enjoyed an eye-popping 22.98% appreciation return on a one-year basis.

Note that the performance measurement cited above for seniors housing reflects the returns of 149 seniors housing properties valued at $7.9 billion in the second quarter. This represents the highest property count and market value in the NCREIF time series for seniors housing.

 

NCREIF Annualized Total Returns June 2021

 

For more details, download the full article here.

 

Skilled Nursing Occupancy Increased to 74.2% in June 2021

NIC MAP® Data Service powered by NIC MAP Vision released its latest Skilled Nursing Monthly Report which includes key monthly data points through June 2021. Here are key takeaways from the report.

Reimbursement differential between Medicare fee-for-service and managed Medicare has accelerated during the pandemic.

NIC MAP® Data Service, powered by NIC MAP Vision, released its latest Skilled Nursing Monthly Report on September 2, 2021, which includes key monthly data points from January 2012 through June 2021.

Here are some key takeaways from NIC Analytics regarding the data covered in the report:

The upward trend in skilled nursing occupancy continued in June. Occupancy increased for the fifth month in a row, rising 86 basis points from May to end June at 74.2%. Occupancy is now up 297 basis points from the 71.2% low point reached in January. There continues to be optimism, especially from investors, given the success of the vaccines but the second half of 2021 will be crucial in terms of the occupancy trend. The expectation is that admissions will continue to increase with rising demand and elective surgeries will continue to provide support for additional admissions to skilled nursing properties. However, occupancy still is very low relative to pre-pandemic levels and cash flow and liquidity is a concern at some properties. Occupancy is down 11.2 percentage points from the pre-pandemic February 2020 level of 85.4%. In addition, the Delta variant does pose a threat, especially in some states with lower vaccinated populations.

SNF Occupancy June 2021

Managed Medicare revenue per patient day (RPPD) held steady in June but is down 4.2% from last year in June 2020. The continued decline in managed Medicare revenue per patient day poses a challenge to skilled nursing operators as the reimbursement differential between Medicare fee-for-service and managed Medicare has accelerated during the pandemic. Medicare fee-for-service RPPD ended June 2021 at $560 and managed Medicare ended at $453, representing a $107 differential. Pre-pandemic, in February of 2020, the differential was $92. As managed Medicare continues to grow, operators and investors should pay attention to this trend and adjust accordingly.

 

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Medicare revenue mix and RPPD continue to decline as fewer COVID-19 cases in properties have resulted in less need for utilizing the 3-Day rule waiver and per day reimbursement for COVD-19-positive patients. Medicare revenue mix ended June at 20.0% and is down from its pandemic high of 24.8% set in January 2021. Medicare RPPD is down 2.5% from its pandemic peak of $574 in June 2020. Meanwhile, managed Medicare revenue mix was essentially flat at 10.5%.  However, this is 240 basis points above the pandemic low of 8.1% set in May 2020.

SNF Revenue Mix June 2021-1

Medicaid patient day mix continued to increase, albeit slowly, ending June at 66.5%. It has increased 292 basis points from the pandemic low of 63.6% set in January 2021. Meanwhile, Medicaid revenue mix was flat from the prior month, ending June at 49.7%. One element of the Medicaid revenue share of a property’s revenue is RPPD and that has declined 1.4% since the pandemic high of $243 set in February 2021. RPPD has likely declined due to less reimbursement support from most states as COVID-19 cases within skilled nursing properties declined.

 

To get more trends from the latest data you can download the Skilled Nursing Monthly Report here. There is no charge for this report.

The report provides aggregate data at the national level from a sampling of skilled nursing operators with multiple properties in the United States. NIC continues to grow its database of participating operators in order to provide data at localized levels in the future. Operators who are interested in participating can complete a participation form at https://www.nic.org/skilled-nursing-data-initiative. NIC and NIC MAP Vision maintain strict confidentiality of all data received.

 

Interested in learning more about NIC MAP data? To learn more about NIC MAP data, powered by NIC MAP Vision, and about accessing the data featured in this article, schedule a meeting with a product expert today.