Trends That Will Shape Senior Living Post-Pandemic

The senior living industry has adapted and evolved through the COVID-19 pandemic. In the latest NIC Leadership Huddle, experts discussed how the pandemic has shaped the industry, and how some changes will likely remain.

The senior living industry has adapted and evolved through the COVID-19 pandemic. In the latest NIC Leadership Huddle, titled “Trends That Will Shape Senior Living Post-Pandemic,” subject matter experts discussed how the pandemic has shaped the industry, and how some changes will likely remain. They explored trends to watch for, both short term and long term – and identified best practices to help operators and their capital providers stay ahead of the curve.

may26_huddle_1024_UPDATED-2

Co-host Maria Nadelstumph, senior vice president, Center of Excellence, Brandywine Living, outlined three areas for the discussion. These included healthcare, housing, and business. She pointed out that healthcare has grown as part of the senior living model, as operators have increased clinical capabilities, brought in onsite healthcare partners, and beefed-up infection control. On housing, she said, “We’re past the real estate. We’re talking more lifestyle.” Housing has also seen a growing use of technology, as well as changes in the use of space and the environment within a property.

On the business side, explained Nadelstumph, “Of course, it’s occupancy.” Trends in this category include the increased use of digital sales platforms and processes. Retaining and recruiting quality staff is another area where trends have shifted through the pandemic. The regulatory environment has also seen major shifts.

Nadelstumph’s co-host, Joe Kiernan, chief strategy officer and senior vice president of Network Development, Ocean Healthcare, posed the first topic for discussion with subject matter expert Fee Stubblefield, founder and chief executive officer, The Springs Living. Kiernan pointed out that seniors housing used to be about lifestyle, rather than healthcare, which had been considered the territory of skilled nursing and post-acute care providers prior to the pandemic. Now, things have changed. s He stated that, “Clearly, healthcare is a huge component of what we do for seniors housing. It has to be a component of it.” He then asked Stubblefield what changes had to be made through the pandemic, and which of those would remain, even post-pandemic.

Speaking of that traditional separation, Stubblefield said, “We’ve all been thrown in this together, because we’ve had to all be part of the solution.” He said environmental systems are here to stay. Clinical initiatives that were once considered experimental learning programs have now accelerated in Stubblefield’s organization. He mentioned telehealth and onsite clinical partnerships, as well as MA plans, I-SNPs (Institutional Special Needs Plans), C-SNPs (Chronic Condition Special Needs Plans), concierge healthcare partnerships, and other healthcare-related innovations. “It’s here to stay, there’s no doubt about it,” he said.

Nadelstumph described how some healthcare-related infrastructure and services had begun to move into senior living models prior to the pandemic. Operators had been keeping them in the background, to preserve the social and community aspects of their properties. Again, COVID-19 has changed operator models. “We have licensed nurses and clinical capabilities in our buildings, but we don’t want it to be in your face…putting in healthcare layers of support service, whether its telehealth, or onsite clinics, or physicians coming in-house, or therapy; whatever it might be; there’s a way to do both to make sure that it’s the right marriage.” She said operators must make sure their healthcare partners are fully aligned, to be a part of the team rather than transactional vendors.

Stubblefield agreed, but pointed out that operators have to align with the healthcare system as well. “As operators, we have to evolve and invest in the infrastructure because we’re going to have to improve the health outcomes for these residents. The delicate dance is that, while we have to become more integrated with the healthcare system, we don’t want to be the next nursing home.” He explained how assisted living, independent living, and memory care have evolved to meet customer demands, but that now, they must also prove how they are improving outcomes, both to their customers, and to the broader healthcare community. “And, do it in a way that the customer wants to be there,” he said.

“We’ve got to get better with data, with technology, invest more into infrastructure systems. I contend that has to connect with environmental information, not just personal health information…we have to do that not just for our residents but think about our staff. They have a healthcare need. They’re working one, two jobs at the entry level. How do they have time to get the healthcare access they need?” Stubblefield continued, “I think there are some opportunities for us not only to impact the healthcare system, the cost drivers, the quality for our residents, but also for our employees.”

Moving to the topic of housing, the panel first discussed the impact of COVID-19 on resident lifestyles, which were impacted by social isolation and safety protocols. Operators are looking at ways to reduce the social and community impacts of future pandemics. New technologies, such as air scrubbers and biological threat detection systems will likely become a part of new property design.

There was agreement that even while integrating new technologies and new health partnerships, the industry’s goal remains to offer the market a product that a new generation of elders will want to move into. Stubblefield pointed out the importance of attention from staff on a successful resident experience, and that staff are key to successful outcomes. Regarding property upgrades and new building construction, he said, “We’re really going to have to pay attention to the space for our employees and our staff, and create great environments to work in.” He said, “Our breakrooms are the size of a housekeeping closet, and there are these industrial looking lockers…our buildings are going to have to evolve to continue to attract talent that want to work there and create an environment that is supportive to them.”

Speaking further on the evolving housing model, Stubblefield asked, “What do we really do here? Do we rent apartments? No. We provide support. That’s really the need that we have to focus our new communities on.” After a discussion on the challenges around recruiting and retaining staff, Stubblefield said, “That’s our raw material; our labor. We’re not builders of buildings and communities, and real estate acquisition. We’re an HR company. We must become highly sophisticated in that.” He argued that the industry must improve in retaining staff, and that it will take help from regulatory partners, particularly around employment initiatives to solve the problem.

Moving into a discussion on the business aspects of the pandemic, Kiernan asked about the regulatory impact. Stubblefield compared the challenge of adhering to differing regulatory guidelines and interpretations, from one jurisdiction to another, to ‘herding cats.’ He said, “Really what it came down to…was how important communication was.” He said a key takeaway was that the industry would have to do more to partner and communicate with regulators and policy makers in the future.

“We’re going to have to make sure that we continue to tell our story very well, because it is a partnership.” Stubblefield said, concluding, “I think the inconsistency across the board for regulation was really, really challenging to manage. And we’re going to have to fix that now…we’re going to have to involve public-private partnerships.”

 

Submit Now for NIC’s Innovations that Work

Back by popular demand, NIC’s Innovations that Work offer real world solutions via fast-paced presentations that will premier during the 2021 Fall season.

Back by popular demand, NIC’s Innovations that Work offer real world solutions via fast-paced presentations that will premier during the 2021 Fall season.

NIC is currently seeking submissions for innovations that add value, improve resident experiences, and drive better outcomes. This is your opportunity to share your success story with the NIC audience of seniors housing and care leaders. These brief, inspiring presentations are designed to share the latest solutions that deliver results in the real world.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the seniors housing and care industry under intense scrutiny. This is an opportunity to take control of the narrative by highlighting the innovations and solutions that will help deliver better care and outcomes for the seniors of the future.

Icon4

Deployed Solutions

Icon1

Measurable Benefits

Icon2

Innovative Answers

Icon3

Willing Presenters

We invite proposals to be submitted no later than Friday, June 18, 2021. Simply complete the online submission and provide the required information. You will be notified by Friday, July 30, 2021 if your presentation is selected. If selected, you will be paired with a speaking coach to help develop your talking points in the desired format.

Click here if you would like to view some past Innovations that Work presentations.

Executive Survey Insights | Wave 28: May 3 to May 16, 2021

This Wave 28 survey includes responses collected May 3 to May 16, 2021 from owners and executives of 64 small, medium, and large seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation, representing hundreds of buildings and thousands of units across respondents’ portfolios of properties.

“Executive Survey Insights results suggest that the seniors housing and care market fundamentals may have reached a turning point at the end of March 2021. According to survey respondents, leads volume continues to grow and the shares of organizations reporting accelerations in move-ins continues to trend positively. These leading indicators have been translating into higher occupancy rates since the Wave 25 survey, conducted in the latter half of March.

–Lana Peck, Senior Principal, NIC

 

NIC’s Executive Survey of operators in seniors housing and skilled nursing is designed to deliver transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space as market conditions continue to change. This Wave 28 survey includes responses collected May 3 to May 16, 2021 from owners and executives of 64 small, medium, and large seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation, representing hundreds of buildings and thousands of units across respondents’ portfolios of properties.

Detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey and a PDF of the report charts can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights.

Wave 28 Summary of Insights and Findings

  •  Since early April, respondents were asked if their organizations had seen an increase in resident lead volume since the beginning of the year—and if they had—if lead volume is above pre-pandemic levels, As shown in the chart below, about nine out of ten organizations reported an increase in lead volume (89%). Additionally, one-third of organizations report lead volume currently above pre-pandemic levels (35%) compared to 20% in Wave 26 conducted just one month ago. Regardless of reports of notable improvement in lead volume, nearly two-thirds of survey respondents expect their organizations’ occupancy rates to recover to pre-pandemic levels sometime in 2022. This sentiment has remained consistent since first reported in late February (Wave 23).

  • The strongest reports of move-ins increasing began generally in and around the Wave 25 survey conducted at the end of March (however, sooner for the nursing care segment). In other words, acceleration in the pace of move-ins became notable near the end of the first quarter of 2021.
  • Interestingly, increased resident demand has been cited by nine out of ten respondents as a reason for acceleration in move-ins since the Wave 25 survey. And, since then, the average rates of resident and staff vaccinations have leveled off at around 90% of residents and 65% of staff.
  • The chart below shows the shares of organizations reporting acceleration, deceleration, or no change in the pace of move-ins by care segment—across their portfolios of properties—since the COVID-19 vaccine began to be distributed in the latter half of December (survey Wave 18) to the present. (For a key to the specific dates of these survey waves, please click here.)

  • Regarding trends in the pace of move-outs, the most recent and slight increase was mainly attributed to transfers to higher levels of care, followed by normal attrition according to survey respondents.

  • The chart below depicts a compelling trend in the shares of organizations reporting higher occupancy since the Wave 25 survey conducted at the end of March. Roughly 50% to 70% reported upward changes in occupancy in the Wave 28 survey. (For a key to the specific dates of these survey waves, please click here.)

  • The degrees of occupancy change variation are shown in the chart below starting with survey Wave 18. Stronger improvement in the change in occupancy rates in recent waves of the survey support the inference that signs of recovery now appear more solid trends as supported by the length and depth of the blue stacked bar segments.

  • Three out of five respondent organizations were offering rent concessions to attract new residents. As shown in the chart, four out of five of them were discounting monthly rents (83% in Wave 28 vs. 73% in Wave 26). One-half of organizations in Wave 28 (50%) were offering free rent for a specified period, down from two-thirds in Wave 26 (65%). Rent freezes, which were written in by survey respondents as “something else” were quantified in Wave 28 with about one-third (36%) capping rents for new residents for a specific period (e.g., two-years). Other tactics include community fee discounts, waiving second person fees, and giving moving allowances.

  • In the Wave 28 survey, the share of organizations experiencing staffing shortages in their properties has leveled off at a very high 90%. Before the pandemic, operators were challenged with labor shortages due to widespread and generally low unemployment rates. During the pandemic, the problem was exacerbated by employees leaving the workforce.

  • To attract community staff, most respondent organizations are increasing wages, offering referral bonuses, and more than half are offering hiring/sign-on bonuses. Staff wages and benefits are typically the most significant operating expenses for seniors housing and care providers. NOI has been squeezed by the efforts to replace workers who left the labor force during the pandemic, coupled with months of receding occupancy rates that had fallen to historic lows in the first quarter of 2021.

 

Wave 28 Survey Demographics

  • Responses were collected between May 3 to16, 2021 from owners and executives of 64 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Owner/operators with 1 to 10 properties comprise 61% of the sample. Operators with 11 to 25 and 26 properties or more make up 39% of the sample (25% and 14%, respectively).
  • More than one-half of respondents are exclusively for-profit providers (61%), roughly one-quarter (27%) are nonprofit providers, and 11% operate both for-profit and nonprofit seniors housing and care organizations.
  • Many respondents in the sample report operating combinations of property types. Across their entire portfolios of properties, 81% of the organizations operate seniors housing properties (IL, AL, MC), 21% operate nursing care properties, and 34% operate CCRCs (aka Life Plan Communities).

Owners and C-suite executives of seniors housing and care properties, please help us tell an accurate story about our industry’s performance. Now, more than ever, we need your response so that we can track firsthand the inflection point on occupancy. This will be a turning point and we want all of our industry stakeholders to know when this important moment occurs.

The current survey is available and takes 5 minutes to complete. If you are an owner or C-suite executive of seniors housing and care and have not received an email invitation to take the survey, please click this link, which will take you there.

NIC wishes to thank survey respondents for their valuable input and continuing support for this effort to bring clarity and create a comprehensive and honest narrative in the seniors housing and care space at a time when trends are continuing to change in our sector

CCRC Care Segment Performance Trended Lower But Better Than Non-CCRCs in 1Q 2021

The following analysis examines current conditions and year-over-year changes in inventory, occupancy, and same-store asking rent growth—by care segments within CCRCs (CCRC segments) compared to non-CCRC segments in freestanding or combined communities to focus a lens on the relative performance of care segments within CCRCs.

The NIC MAP® Data Service, powered by NIC MAP Vision, an affiliate of NIC, tracks occupancy, asking rents, demand, inventory, and construction data for independent living, assisted living, memory care, skilled nursing, and continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs—also referred to as life plan communities) for more than 15,000 properties across 140 metropolitan areas. NIC MAP data currently tracks 1,208 not-for-profit and for-profit entrance fee and rental CCRCs in these 140 combined markets (1,134 in the 99 combined Primary and Secondary Markets).

The following analysis examines current conditions and year-over-year changes in inventory, occupancy, and same-store asking rent growth—by care segments within CCRCs (CCRC segments) compared to non-CCRC segments in freestanding or combined communities to focus a lens on the relative performance of care segments within CCRCs.

Current CCRC Occupancy by Payment Type and Profit Status

In the first quarter of 2021, CCRC occupancy fell 1.4 percentage points from the fourth quarter to 84.3%, another new low since NIC MAP began reporting in 2006. The cumulative drop in CCRC occupancy was 7.2 percentage points year over year—3.8 percentage points higher than non-CCRCs.

Non-CCRC occupancy averaged 74.9% in 1Q 2021—a very wide 9.4 percentage points lower than CCRC occupancy (84.3%). Entrance fee CCRC occupancy (86.8%) was 6.7 percentage points higher than rental CCRCs (80.1%), and not-for-profit CCRC occupancy (86.1%) was 6.8 percentage points higher than for-profit CCRCs (79.3%).

ccrc chart 1-1

 

CCRCs vs. Non-CCRCs: Care Segment Detail

The table below compares each of the care segments—independent living, assisted living, memory care, and nursing care—in the Primary and Secondary Markets. The table shows the 1Q 2021 total open units, occupancy and average monthly asking rent—and year-over-year changes for CCRCs and non-CCRCs.

The CCRC independent living care segment (which represents 55.6% of CCRC units) garnered the highest occupancy in the first quarter of 2021 (88.6%), as well as the least year-over-year drop in occupancy falling 4.3 percentage points. The current nursing care segment occupancy rate in non-CCRCs, which represents 51.5% of non-CCRC units, was much lower at 73.6%, and fell 12.7 percentage points year-over-year.

ccrc chart 2-1

 

Higher occupancy at CCRCs

The CCRC independent living care segment had the highest 1Q 2021 occupancy (88.6%), followed by CCRC assisted living and memory care (82.5%, respectively), and CCRC nursing care (76.5%). Among non-CCRCs, in the same order, the independent living care segment had the highest 1Q 2021 occupancy (79.0%), followed non-CCRC assisted living (75.3%), memory care (74.3%) and nursing care (73.6%).

The difference in 1Q 2021 occupancy between CCRCs and non-CCRCs was the highest for the independent living segment (9.6 percentage points), followed by the memory care segment (8.2 percentage points), the assisted living care segment (7.2 percentage points), and the nursing care segment (2.9 percentage points).

Occupancy declined from year-earlier levels for each of the care segments. However, CCRCs had lesser declines in occupancy than non-CCRCs. Among CCRCs, independent living care segment occupancy declined the least (-4.3 percentage points), followed by memory care (-7.5 percentage points), assisted living (-8.7 percentage points), and the nursing care segment (-12.6 percentage points). Among non-CCRCs, independent living and memory care segment occupancy declined the least (-8.3 and -8.7 percentage points, respectively), followed by assisted living (-9.9 percentage points), and the nursing care segment (-12.7 percentage points).

Higher annual, same store asking rent growth at CCRCs

Among CCRCs, the highest year-over-year asking rent growth was 1.6% in the independent living and nursing care segments; among non-CCRCs it was highest in the nursing care segment (1.5%). The lowest year-over-year asking rent growth was noted for CCRCs in the assisted living care segment (1.3%); in non-CCRCs it was noted for the independent living care segment (-0.6%). Note, these figures are for asking rates and do not consider any discounting that may be occurring.

Significantly weaker inventory growth at CCRCs

Non-CCRCs had higher rates of inventory growth (year-over-year change in inventory) by segment than CCRCs. The highest rates of inventory growth were reported for non-CCRCs in the memory care and independent living care segments (4.6% and 3.6%); the lowest were reported for both CCRCs and non-CCRCs in the nursing care segment (-0.6% and -0.3%, respectively). Negative inventory growth can occur when units/beds that are temporarily or permanently taken offline, or converted to another care segment, outweigh added inventory.

Occupancy rates vary by region and payment type

In the first quarter of 2021, the Mid-Atlantic, Pacific and Northeast regions have the strongest CCRC and non-CCRC occupancy rates ranging from 86.4% to 86.1% (CCRC) and 77.7% to 75.1% (non-CCRC). The weakest CCRC and non-CCRC occupancy is in the Southwest region at 78.6% and 68.3%, respectively. That said, the greatest difference in CCRC and non-CCRC occupancy was in the Mid-Atlantic region—an 11.3 percentage point difference.

Considering payment type, entrance fee occupancy was highest in the Pacific, Mid-Atlantic, East North Central, and Northeast regions (88.6% to 88.0%), whereas rental occupancy was the highest in the Pacific region (82.2%). The largest difference between entrance fee and rental occupancy was reported for the Mid-Atlantic and East North Central regions (8.2 and 8.1 percentage points, respectively).

ccrc chart 3-1

Looking specifically at the independent living care segment, the highest CCRC occupancy was in the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Pacific regions (90.7% to 90.2%), but the largest difference between CCRCs and non-CCRCs was in the Mid-Atlantic region (14.0 percentage points).

Considering payment type, entrance fee occupancy was highest in the Pacific region (92.1%), whereas rental occupancy was the highest in the Northeast region (87.9%). The largest difference between entrance fee and rental occupancy was reported for the Pacific region (6.1 percentage points).

CCRC IL Occupancy 1Q2021

 

Look for future blog posts from NIC to delve deep into the performance of CCRCs.

 

Interested in learning more?

To learn more about NIC MAP data, powered by NIC MAP Vision, and about accessing the data featured in this article, schedule a meeting with a product expert today.

 

*This blog was originally published in Ziegler Investment Banking, Senior Living Finance Z-News.

Seniors Housing Equity Players Talk Investment Strategy

Seniors housing investors are re-examining their portfolios—as well as their strategies for new transactions in 2021.

Seniors housing investors are re-examining their portfolios—as well as their strategies for new transactions in 2021. Attendees of the latest NIC Leadership Huddle, titled, “Seniors Housing Equity Players Talk Investment Strategy” heard how three equity capital providers are viewing seniors housing as an investment opportunity today. The discussion included real-life examples of recent acquisitions and dispositions, as well as go-forward investment strategies in a post-pandemic world.

may12_huddle_1024

Despite seeing lower occupancies through the pandemic, the investors are seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. “It’s been very refreshing to see some very promising trends in our portfolio,” said Dustin Warner, Director, Harrison Street. He continued, “With the onset of the vaccine rollout, we’ve seen COVID cases down to just a handful of residents in late first quarter of this year.” Leads have increased, too. “They’re at the highest level since the onset of the pandemic,” Warner said. He also is seeing higher move ins, nearly at pre-COVID first quarter of 2020 levels.

The discussion facilitator, Jerry Taylor, Vice President of Operations, National Health Investors, Inc., pointed out that there is a need for strong operators, particularly in a post-pandemic world. He asked whether there was anything to look for when looking for a quality operator partner. Blake Peeper, Partner/Co-Chief Investment Officer, Bridge Seniors Housing Fund Manager LLC, described how the pandemic drove customer behaviors to change. Prospects were shopping online more, forcing sales departments to adjust and adapt at the corporate level. He looks for larger operators who have the resources and infrastructure it takes to quickly and effectively adapt to new customer behaviors – and to innovate to meet new demands.

Asked whether the pandemic will soon be in the rearview mirror, both panelists expressed cautious optimism. Warner is seeing positive movement in the market – but also pointed out that he feels his operators are now better prepared to handle whatever might come next. He also pointed to a new supply and demand picture. With historically low new construction starts, which he expects to stay low at least in the short term, “You’ve got somewhat of a runway here to work with. You combine that with what we perceive as a pent-up demand, a year of residents that want a place to live, and its kind of a nice, optimistic landscape for the future, in my opinion.”

Peeper shared the optimism. “We’ve observed that the value proposition of seniors housing has really been validated,” he said. “The sharp recovery that we saw in March is indicative of that…it’s a really interesting time in the cycle, whereby we’ve had a real hit to occupancy, yet the medium and long-term outlook from a fundamental perspective is really quite strong. We’re generally bullish.”

On dispositions, and when the market will return to normal, with transaction volumes similar to 2018, the panelists both agreed that it is still too early to tell. Peeper said, “When we get to a point whereby the gap between where we are today and stabilized value shrinks some and shrinks to a point where those types of deals are financeable in a reasonable manner, I think then you really open the market back up.” Peeper said he views occupancy outlook as a key driver, but owners will eventually become sellers, even if they do so a little earlier than they’d like.

Taylor raised the fact there is plenty of capital, with somewhere from $9 billion to $12 billion in liquid assets, or ‘dry powder’ waiting to invest in the sector. For Warner, the acquisition pipeline, which had dried up by late March of 2020, began to see new life as debt markets opened up. “We ended the year with over $1.6 billion in new senior housing investments across development and acquisitions,” he said. Having strong relationships, established long before COVID hit, was a major factor in getting deals done.

New opportunities are also coming from old relationships. “We’ve got 22 different operators across the country,” said Warner. “They’re very intimately involved in their submarkets.” Well established relationships with large institutional players have also yielded some new opportunities for Warner.

Taylor asked whether the panelists were seeing value-add opportunities, given the stresses of the pandemic. “Not every value-add deal is distressed, but, of those that are, there are really two different types of distress that we’ve seen,” Warner said. He described properties that were “truly” distressed due to fundamental issues, such as functional obsolescence, or they might be located in over-saturated markets, or have poorly suited debt structures. Many of these, according to Warner, were, “likely on their way to being distressed prior to COVID.” The other type of distress is less severe and can occur even in quality properties in good markets. He explained that these owners, many of whom are relatively new to the sector, now wish to exit. “They were very slowly leasing up pre-COVID, COVID set them back quite a bit…they just want to get out of their basis.” Those are opportunities worth pursuing.

 

This and other past NIC Leadership Huddles can be viewed here.