The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls inched up by 49,000 in January and that the unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 6.3%. The consensus estimates for January had been for a gain of 105,000 jobs. Through January, 9.9 million jobs have been lost since February. 

Health care declined by 39,000 jobs in January, with losses in nursing care facilities (down 19,000), home health care services (down 13,000) and community care facilities for the elderly (down 7,000). Since February, health care employment is down by 542,000.

The share of employed people who teleworked because of the coronavirus was 23.2% in January. This data refers to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the prior four weeks due to the pandemic. Separately, an estimated 14.8 million people reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due the pandemic. This was 1.1 million less than in December. 

The unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage point to 6.3% in January from 6.7% in December. It remains 2.8 percentage points above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5% seen in February, but well below the 14.7% peak seen in April. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed from December at 4.0 million and accounted for 39.5% of the total number of unemployed persons. The underemployment rate or the U-6 jobless rate fell to 11.1% in January from 11.7% in December. This figure includes those who have quit looking for a job because they are discouraged about their prospects and people working part-time but desiring a full work week.  

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.06 in January to $29.96, a gain of 5.4% from a year earlier. These increases largely reflect the disproportionate number of lower paid workers in leisure and hospitality who went off payrolls, which put upward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimates. The large employment fluctuations over the past several months–especially in industries with lower-paid workers-complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings.  

The labor force participation rate, which is a measure of the share of working age people who are employed or looking for work was 61.4% in January and was 1.9 percentage points lower than February 2020.  

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 72,000 from 336,000 to 264,000 and the change for December was revised down by 87,000 from a loss of 140,000 to a loss of 227,000. Combined, 159,000 jobs were removed from the original estimates.   Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.

The limited job gains in January stem from pandemic-related restrictions in business operations and reflects the large number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 infections. Many states have re-imposed lockdowns. Widespread distribution of vaccines is needed to allow for a more complete re-opening of the economy and a recovery in jobs. Congress needs to act to implement further fiscal stimulus to support a recovery, although the effects of the $900 billion federal relief package enacted in December have not been broadly felt yet. Without further fiscal stimulus, the economy is likely to sputter until a vaccine can be safely and widely distributed.

As the leading data provider for the seniors housing and care sector, the NIC MAP^® Data Service (NIC MAP) tracks occupancy, asking rents, demand, inventory, and construction data for independent living, assisted living, memory care, nursing care, and continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs), also referred to as life plan communities. This data is collected for more than 15,000 properties across 140 metropolitan areas. NIC MAP currently tracks 1,208 not-for-profit and for-profit entrance fee and rental CCRCs in these 140 combined markets (1,137 in the 99 combined Primary and Secondary Markets).

The following analysis examines current conditions and year-over-year changes in inventory, occupancy, and same store asking rent growth—by care segments within CCRCs (CCRC segments) compared to non-CCRC segments in freestanding or combined communities to focus a lens on the relative performance of care segments within CCRCs.

Current CCRC Occupancy by Payment Type and Profit Status

In the fourth quarter of 2020, CCRC occupancy fell 90 basis points from the third quarter to 85.7%, its lowest level since NIC MAP began reporting the data in 2006. The cumulative drop in occupancy was 350 basis points since the pandemic began to have an impact on occupancy rates. Prior to 2Q 2020, CCRC occupancy oscillated around 91% for 22 consecutive quarters.

Non-CCRC occupancy averaged 76.6% in 4Q 2020—a very wide 9.1 percentage points lower than CCRC occupancy (85.7%). Entrance fee CCRC occupancy was 6.3 percentage points higher (88.0%) than rental CCRCs (81.7%), and not-for-profit CCRC occupancy was 6.1 percentage points higher (87.3%) than for-profit CCRCs (81.2%).

CCRCs vs. Non-CCRCs: Care Segment Detail

The table below compares each of the care segments—independent living, assisted living, memory care, and nursing care—in the Primary and Secondary Markets. The table shows the 4Q 2020 total open units, occupancy and average monthly asking rent—and year-over-year changes for CCRCs and non-CCRCs.

The CCRC independent living care segment (which represents 55.5% of CCRC units) garnered the highest occupancy in the fourth quarter of 2020 (89.6%), as well as the least year-over-year drop in occupancy falling 3.2 percentage points. The current nursing care segment occupancy rate in non-CCRCs, which represents 51.9% of non-CCRC units, was much lower at 74.9%, and fell 11.2 percentage points year-over-year.

Higher occupancy at CCRCs

The CCRC independent living care segment had the highest 4Q 2020 occupancy (89.6%), followed by CCRC assisted living and memory care (84.2%, respectively), and CCRC nursing care (78.5%). Among non-CCRCs, the independent living care segment had the highest 4Q 2020 occupancy (80.9%), followed non-CCRC assisted living (77.8%), memory care (76.7%) and nursing care (74.9%).

The difference in 4Q 2020 occupancy between CCRCs and non-CCRCs was the highest for the independent living segment (8.7 percentage points), followed by the memory care segment (7.5 percentage points), the assisted living care segment (6.5 percentage points), and the nursing care segment (3.6 percentage points).

Occupancy declined from year-earlier levels for each of the care segments. However, CCRCs had lesser declines in occupancy than non-CCRCs. Among CCRCs, independent living care segment occupancy declined the least (-3.2 percentage points), followed by memory care (-5.9 percentage points), assisted living (-7.3 percentage points), and the nursing care segment (-10.2 percentage points). Among non-CCRCs, memory care and independent living segment occupancy declined the least (-6.8 and -6.9 percentage points, respectively), followed by assisted living (-7.9 percentage points), and the nursing care segment (-11.2 percentage points).

Higher annual, same store asking rent growth at CCRCs

Overall, CCRC same store year-over-year asking rent growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 2.4%, down from the time series high of 4.7% reached in the first quarter of 2019, but slightly higher than the time series low of 2.1% at the end of 2010, the end of 2013 and beginning of 2014. Year-over-year asking rent growth did not vary significantly across the CCRC care segments unlike the non-CCRC care segments; the variation was only 30 basis points for CCRCs but 220 basis points for non-CCRCs. Among CCRCs, the highest year-over-year asking rent growth was 2.1% in the independent living segment; among non-CCRCs it was highest in the nursing care segment (1.9%). The lowest year-over-year asking rent growth was noted for CCRCs in the assisted living care segment (1.8%); in non-CCRCs it was noted for the independent living care segment (-0.3%).

Significantly weaker inventory growth at CCRCs

Non-CCRCs had higher rates of inventory growth (year-over-year change in inventory) by segment than CCRCs, with the exception of the nursing care segment. The highest rates of inventory growth were reported for non-CCRCs in the memory care and independent living care segments (4.4% and 3.8%); the lowest were reported for both CCRCs and non-CCRCs in the nursing care segment (0.0% and -0.3%, respectively). Negative inventory growth can occur when units/beds that are temporarily or permanently taken offline, or converted to another care segment, outweigh added inventory.

Occupancy rates vary by region and payment type

Seniors housing and care communities in the Pacific, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions, which were more significantly impacted earlier in the pandemic than other regions, currently have the strongest CCRC occupancy rates ranging from 87.9% to 87.6%. The weakest CCRC and non-CCRC occupancy is in the Southwest region at 80.0% and 69.7%, respectively. That said, the greatest difference in CCRC and non-CCRC occupancy was in the Mid-Atlantic region—a 10.8 percentage point difference.

The difference in fourth quarter occupancy rates between entrance fee and rental CCRCs was the greatest in the Mountain region (8.6 percentage points), followed by the Pacific (7.6 percentage points), and the East North Central region (7.0 percentage points).

Looking specifically at the independent living care segment by payment type, the difference in fourth quarter occupancy rates between entrance fee and rental CCRCs was the greatest in the Pacific region (8.0 percentage points), followed by the West North Central region (7.1percentage points), and the Mountain region (7.0 percentage points).

Look for future blog posts from NIC to delve deep into the performance of CCRCs.

To learn more about NIC MAP^® Data Service, and the latest metro-level data they can provide to support your organization through their various product offerings, schedule a meeting with a product expert today.

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It may take a while before the transaction process itself returns to normal.

Despite the major disruptions caused by the pandemic, transactions have still been closing though at a slower pace compared to 2019. Underwriting terms for financing have generally tightened and lenders are still cautious. But as effective vaccines are being rolled out, deal-making is expected to pick up, especially in the second quarter of 2021.

“Investors are showing more confidence in the market because of the vaccine announcement,” said Ryan Maconachy, vice chairman of Healthcare and Alternative Real Estate Assets at Newmark, a commercial real estate services firm. “Stabilized properties are in a great position.”

Maconachy added that in the last two months the number of bidders for seniors housing properties, mostly private equity firms, has increased. He projects that Newmark will close deals totaling $2.5-$3 billion in the first quarter of 2021.

Transactions fell steeply in 2020, according to numbers compiled by NIC MAP^® Data Service and, Real Capital Analytics. The all-time high of 174 transactions was tallied in the fourth quarter of 2019 falling to 67 deals in the third quarter of 2020, marking a sharp slowdown in sales activity as the pandemic widened.

For now, cap rates and pricing are holding steady, according to Ben Firestone, executive managing director and co-founder at Blueprint Healthcare Real Estate Advisors. He said that pricing could dip prior to a rebound in revenue in 2021.

Investors are rethinking liability insurance on the operating expense side and scrutinizing short-term lease-up projections on the revenue side, said Firestone. “The outlook remains strong over the long term. Private, patient capital is buying right now.”

The deal-making process itself has changed, a situation unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic mode until vaccines are widely deployed, the disease subsides, and the economy picks up.  

Maconachy said that a lot of the deals in 2020 were very targeted to a select group of investors that stayed in the market. Properties were not shopped to a wide array of potential buyers. As a result, the transaction process last year was somewhat streamlined, resulting in faster closings despite the drawbacks of not being able to tour properties. He added that he doesn’t expect tours to resume for at least a few months, depending on the speed of the vaccine roll-out.

The 30-Day Deal

Stakeholders addressed the challenges of deal-making in the COVID era at the 2020 NIC Fall Conference. The session was titled “30 Days from Start to Finish; Getting a Deal Done During the Pandemic.” The panel was led by Steve Schmidt, national director, Seniors Housing Group, Freddie Mac. Speakers included Brian Cannella, managing director, Kayne Anderson Real Estate; Lori Coombs, managing director, group head seniors housing, Wells Fargo; and Thomas Schissler, managing director, Wells Fargo Multifamily Capital.

Taking a creative spin on deal-making, the session’s format mimicked TV’s Jeopardy gameshow. Schmidt acted as the host and the panelists answered questions from categories on the game board, racking up mock dollars for correct responses.

Questions related to a Kayne Anderson transaction of six best-in-class assets in Florida. Wells Fargo and Freddie Mac provided the $233 million debt package.

Several trends emerged during the discussion. Lenders said they are focused on high-quality owners and operators. For underwriting, lenders require strong protocols to prevent disease transmission. Borrowers have been required to detail their policies and procedures around infection control. “We want to see best practices,” said Coombs.

In the case of the Florida transaction, the operator, Discovery Senior Living, was well known to the lenders. That provided a level of comfort, knowing that there would be continuity of operations.

In general, senior living occupancy has been a concern throughout the pandemic. Senior housing occupancy hit a new low of 82.1% in the third quarter of 2020, according to NIC.

Lenders are looking closely at occupancy trends. They want to know how far occupancy can decline before the borrower/operator can no longer cover the debt service.

Schmidt said that Freddie Mac has been underwriting loans with the expectation of declining occupancy. But he added that each loan is underwritten based on its own merits and situation. Even today as the virus continues to spread, Freddie Mac looks at each owner, operator, and property on an individual basis. “We underwrite accordingly,” said Schmidt.

Freddie Mac structures a 12-month debt service reserve to bridge the gap due to a drop in net operating income. A pre-funded reserve provides another layer of protection, according to Cannella at Kayne Anderson.

Inspections have been a challenge since physical visits to properties have been restricted. In the case of the Florida portfolio, Kayne Anderson had previously owned the assets and knew them well. They also reviewed engineering reports, analyzed CapEx reports, and conducted virtual inspections.

Closing the Florida transaction in 30 days was a big challenge, according to Cannella. “Tough times call for good relationships,” he said, crediting the working rapport among the parties for the speedy conclusion. As a precaution, Kayne Anderson structured a parallel short-term bridge loan in case the deal didn’t come together on time. “The dual tracking gave us the confidence to deliver for the seller and investor,” said Cannella.

Looking ahead, Schmidt said a community whose residents and staff are 90% or more vaccinated will be a strong factor in determining stabilization. “We expect to underwrite occupancy in place once a community can show it has stabilized,” he said.

The lenders agreed that seniors housing has a bright long-term outlook. But they emphasized the importance of flexibility because of the continuing uncertainty around the pandemic and how it will play out. They thought it would take some time to win back consumer confidence, but an effective vaccine will help. “Hopefully, we are on our way out,” said Cannella.

As we enter a new year, NIC’s Executive Survey Insights is, at the time of this writing, entering it’s twenty-first ‘wave,’ the results of which will be posted right here, on February 11. The report for Wave 20 just posted here on NIC Notes this week. Looking back, it’s possible to see just how closely the survey’s results have mirrored the reality experienced by so many across the industry, and to appreciate the value of this unique tool, as leaders focus anew on navigating an uncertain future.

Readers of this blog, the NIC Insider, and numerous media outlets, along with attendees of the 2020 NIC Fall Conference, who can review sessions here, may by now be familiar with NIC’s Executive Survey Insights data updates. Launched in mid-March 2020, as part of a broader effort to provide timely insights on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across the seniors housing and care industry, the survey’s bi-weekly data releases, accompanied with detailed analysis from NIC Senior Principal Lana Peck, have become closely watched.

With over 2,000 completed surveys to date, yielding data on properties of every size, type, ownership structure, and across each care segment in the industry, this series of surveys now averages over 80 completions every two weeks. Each completed survey provides data from the perspective of an owner/operator’s entire portfolio of seniors housing and care properties. The result is a cross-section of America’s seniors housing and care industry, updated almost in real-time. A further result is that, amidst an onslaught of media attention, much of which is negative, the survey provides a reality-based measure of what’s actually happening across the sector.

Peck’s blog posts, releasing new waves of Executive Survey Insights data, garner thousands of readers within hours of publication. In fact, several of these posts rank among NIC’s most-read for all of 2020. For many industry watchers and analysts, it is likely that each wave of survey results provides helpful tools for interpretation, particularly as it precedes sources of hard data by weeks and months.

Analysts are not the only ones carefully studying Peck’s blog posts. Frequently, survey results and analysis are referenced in media reports on the sector. Readers of McKnight’s publications, Mortgage Professional America Magazine, Senior Housing News, Multi-Housing News, and other industry-watching media outlets may have noticed a regular flow of stories that are based on the latest Executive Survey Insights findings. The surveys’ findings have also been mentioned in stories by Kaiser Health News, CNN, the Wall Street Journal, and other major news outlets across the U.S.

Industry leaders, and those who are watching the industry, have found the survey to be a consistent indicator of trends, worthy of careful consideration as they plan their strategies going into the new year. Looking at the patterns in the data, which is collected, carefully checked for quality and consistency, analyzed, then released far closer to real-time than traditional sources of hard data, it is possible to discern how the pandemic has impacted various sectors within seniors housing and care, and continues to do so.

A look at the time series data over the 20 waves of survey results, reveals just how accurate the survey is in reflecting trends. The graph below shows the drastic slowdown in move ins to assisted living early in the pandemic, followed by a pickup over the summer and a tapering off as conditions worsened in the fall.

Access to the Executive Survey Insights full time series graphs, showing occupancy and more over the 20 waves of the survey, is available here.

As Peck said during the “Insights from NIC’s Executive Survey” session she presented at the 2020 NIC Fall Conference in October, “This is the longest-running survey of operators since the start of the pandemic.” That was back in October, covering the first 11 waves of data. Peck pointed out that the survey is also the most frequently updated source of insight on the sector and tracks more closely to real-time than other data sources. In the Fall Conference session, Peck said, “These near-real-time insights on the effects of the pandemic on senior living are working to help ensure the narrative on the sector is accurate in an environment of headline sensationalism,” before diving into an analysis of the survey’s findings up to that point in time.

The survey collects executives’ comments, as well as their hard data. Through those comments, Peck’s analysis often includes a connection to the real-world experiences and concerns that leaders across the industry are reporting, as they face daily struggles to acquire sufficient PPE, testing, staffing resources, and now vaccines. A review of that commentary lead to the publication of another most-read blog post, “We Feel We Are Alone In A War-Zone.” The post, which was published after only two waves of the survey, nevertheless offers a wealth of insight into the daily struggles and challenges faced by industry leaders fighting every day on the front-lines of a historic battle to save lives, and helped bring attention to their most pressing needs at the time.

With regular emails and a recent direct-mail initiative, NIC continues to actively encourage executives in all types of senior living organizations to participate every two weeks. It takes about 5-10 minutes to complete the survey, which includes questions related to changes in occupancy and move-in/move-out rates, availability of PPE, COVID-19 testing, staffing, and most recently, vaccines and vaccination rates. Their continued participation, during a time of such stress and urgency, is perhaps the greatest testament to the value of the ongoing initiative.

To stay up-to-date on the latest findings of the Executive Survey Insights, subscribe to NIC Notes. To participate in the survey, owner/operator executives (one per company) can provide data, by completing the survey regularly. A sneak peek of the results is shared with survey participants on Wednesday evenings with public release Thursday mornings. For the hundreds of senior executives who continue to participate, NIC, and thousands of stakeholders, sincerely thank you for your time and your transparency.

“A compelling departure from recent surveys, significantly fewer respondents in the Wave 20 survey cited resident or family member concerns as a reason for slower pace of move-ins and/or faster pace of move-outs the past 30-days—and notably fewer survey respondents cited a slowdown in leads conversions/sales. The CDC reports that more than 2.7 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine had been administered as of January 26 to residents in nursing care, assisted living communities, and other senior living settings. According to Wave 20 survey respondents, four out of five organizations have had their first clinic. Of those organizations, on average, two-thirds of residents (66%) and nearly one-half of staff (47%) have received the first dose of the vaccine, and nine out of ten respondents anticipate that all residents willing to take the vaccine will be vaccinated within two months. More consumers having access to the vaccine in an environment where infection mitigation is the highest priority may encourage prospective residents to move in and improve future occupancy rates.”

                                           –Lana Peck, Senior Principal, NIC

NIC’s Executive Survey of operators in seniors housing and skilled nursing is designed to deliver transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space at a time when market conditions continue to change. This Wave 20 survey includes responses collected January 11 to January 24, 2021 from owners and executives of 92 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey and a PDF of the report charts can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights.

Additionally, the full range of time series data for each wave of the survey by care segment for move-ins, move-outs and occupancy rate changes can be found  HERE.

Wave 20 Summary of Insights and Findings

• Long-anticipated as a game-changer with regard to improving occupancy, seniors housing and care operators are currently holding vaccination clinics for their residents and staff. In December, the CDC prioritized skilled nursing and assisted living residents and staff members in phase 1a of the COVID-19 vaccine distribution. According to Wave 20 survey respondents, four out of five organizations have had their first clinic. On average, two-thirds of residents (66%) and nearly one-half of staff (47%) have received the first dose of the vaccine, and nine out of ten respondents anticipate that all residents willing to take the vaccine will be vaccinated within two months.

• A few survey respondents shared caveats regarding vaccine availability and percentage of residents and staff who received their first dose of the vaccine. Due to varied local vaccine allocations on phases 1a and 1b, or only being able to vaccinate nursing care residents while independent living residents were still waiting for vaccination dates, some said their responses were skewed lower compared to total population.
• Four out of five respondents indicated that educating and motivating staff to take the vaccine was a challenge in distributing the vaccine. To mitigate these challenges, operators are implementing a variety of strategies to encourage and improve vaccine acceptance.

• Mentioned most frequently, early and continued education and robust communication campaigns including print, digital and social media to residents, staff and families about the benefits and risks of the vaccine were strategies noted by all respondents. Other approaches included one-on-one, open-door discussions with community and corporate leadership to answer questions and allay concerns, hosting webinars and holding virtual and town hall discussions with local health authorities and pharmacy partners, management leading by example by taking the vaccine publicly, financial incentives and non-cash prizes for special recognition, utilizing testimonials from resident and staff “champions” of the benefits (and lack of side effects) of the vaccine, and paring up vaccination “buddies” to encourage clinic participation. [Detail on measures some communities are taking to encourage vaccine acceptance among staff can be found in the NIC Notes Blog.]
• In the Wave 20 survey, there was some improvement in the pace of move-ins for each of the care segments except the nursing care segment. The shares of organizations reporting an acceleration in the pace of move-ins in the past 30-days is higher than the portion of organizations reporting decelerations for independent living and assisted living (an improvement for these two care segments since the Wave 14 and 15 surveys conducted in October, reflecting operator experiences in early Fall), but equal for memory care. More organizations with nursing care beds have reported decelerations than accelerations in move-ins for the past seven waves of the survey. The full range of time-series data can be viewed here.

• The share of organizations citing increased resident demand as a reason for acceleration in the pace of move-ins remained high (77%) in the Wave 20 survey but down from a recent high of 86% in the Wave 16 survey, conducted in mid-November. Presumably for various reasons including anecdotal reports of more hospital discharges of patients to home health, and elective surgeries on hold in some locales hard hit by the coronavirus, hospital placement cited as a reason for acceleration in the pace of move-ins (26%) continued to lag the survey time series high of 41% reached in Wave 10, conducted in late July. Other reasons for faster pace of move-ins mentioned by respondents included admissions restrictions being lifted and COVID-19 vaccination clinics having been started.

• Significantly fewer respondents in the Wave 20 survey cited resident or family member concerns than in the Wave 19 survey (38% vs. 74%), and notably fewer cited a slowdown in leads conversions/sales (64% vs. 79%) as reasons for deceleration in move-ins in the past 30-days.

• Approximately one-third of respondents (31%) noted that their organizations had a backlog of residents waiting to move-in. This is just below the high point (34%) reached in the Wave 16 survey conducted in mid-November, and higher than Waves 17 and 19 conducted in December and early January (26%).
• Between 50% to 60% of survey respondents have consistently reported offering rent concessions to attract new residents since the Wave 13 survey conducted in late-September to early-October. Among organizations with multiple properties that were offering rent concessions in the Wave 20 survey, one in three (32%) were offering rent concessions in more than one-half of their properties, and one in four (26%) were offering rent concessions in all of their properties.

• As shown in the chart below, more organizations with assisted living and/or memory care units in the Wave 20 survey than at any other time in the survey time series reported accelerations in the pace of move-outs in the past 30-days. That said, fewer organizations with nursing care beds noted acceleration in the pace of move-outs than in the past five waves of the survey dating back to Wave 15 conducted late-October to early November. Presumably in part due to operator innovations in infection mitigation and creative visitation protocols which have gained acceptance from many residents and families, respondents citing resident or family member concerns as a reason for acceleration in move-outs is at the lowest level in the survey time series (23%). The full range of time-series data can be viewed here.

• For each of the care segments, the shares of organizations reporting occupancy declines continued to outpace those reporting higher occupancy. Considering recent survey data, this trend began in the Wave 16 survey conducted in mid-November (reflecting experiences that occurred during the beginning of the Fall surge in coronavirus cases in October). Essentially unchanged from the Wave 19 survey, between 46% and 57% of organizations with assisted living units, memory care units and/or nursing care beds, and 36% with independent living units, reported declines in occupancy in the past 30-days. The full range of time-series data can be viewed here.

• The chart above shows that in Waves 19 and 20, an equal proportion of operators with nursing care beds (57%) reported declines in occupancy rates. The chart below describes the degree of those occupancy rate changes and illustrates that more organizations with nursing care beds in Wave 20 reported deeper declines than in Wave 19. (The blue and orange-hued stacked bars correspond to the solid bars in the chart above indicating the degree of change by the saturation of color.) In the Wave 19 survey, more than one-third of respondents (38%) reported occupancy decreases of between three and ten percentage points. However, in the Wave 20 survey, nearly one-half had reported the same (48%).

• Similar to past surveys, differences in week-over-week occupancy rates typically result in little change. However, the memory care and nursing care segments show higher shares of respondents reporting occupancy rate increases from one week prior in Wave 20 compared to Wave 19 (17% vs. 7% and 28% vs. 22%, respectively).

Wave 20 Survey Demographics

• Responses were collected between January 11 and January 24, 2021 from owners and executives of 92 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Just over half of respondents are exclusively for-profit providers (56%), one-third are nonprofit providers (32%), and 12% operate both for-profit and nonprofit seniors housing and care organizations.
• Owner/operators with 1 to 10 properties comprise just over half of the sample (58%). Operators with 11 to 25 properties make up about one-quarter of the sample (22%), while operators with 26 properties or more make up 20% of the sample.
• Many respondents in the sample report operating combinations of property types. Across their entire portfolios of properties, 65% of the organizations operate seniors housing properties (IL, AL, MC), 31% operate nursing care properties, and 36% operate CCRCs (aka Life Plan Communities).

Owners and C-suite executives of seniors housing and care properties, we’re asking for your input! By providing real-time insights to the longest running pulse of the industry survey you can help ensure the narrative on the seniors housing and care sector is accurate. By demonstrating transparency, you can help build trust.

“…a closely watched Covid-19-related weekly survey of…operators
conducted by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care…”
The Wall Street Journal | June 30, 2020

The Wave 21 survey is available and takes 5-10 minutes to complete. If you are an owner or C-suite executive of seniors housing and care and have not received an email invitation to take the survey, please click this link or send a message to insight@nic.org to be added to the email distribution list.

NIC wishes to thank survey respondents for their valuable input and continuing support for this effort to bring clarity and transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space at a time where trends are continuing to change.