The NIC Analytics team presented findings during a webinar with NIC MAP Vision clients on July 18 to review key senior housing data trends during the second quarter of 2024.
NIC Analytics utilized a relatively new webinar format in which the second half featured a deep dive on a special topic. In July’s webinar, Arick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP Vision, discussed trends in Artificial Intelligence and the senior housing outlook with Lisa McCracken, NIC’s Head of Research and Analytics. NIC hopes participants enjoy this new webinar format and welcomes any comments or suggestions.
Key takeaways from the second quarter data included the following:
Takeaway #1: Occupancy Increased for the 12th Consecutive Quarter
- The occupancy rate for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets rose 0.5 percentage points to 85.9% in the second quarter.
- This marked the twelfth consecutive quarter of occupancy gains, driven by consumer
Takeaway #2: Occupied Units Continue Climbing to Record Highs
- The total number of occupied senior housing units set another record high in the second quarter, rising to nearly 607,000 units for the 31 Primary Markets.
- This trend is similar for the Secondary Markets at nearly 330,000 occupied units and shows that today more older adults than ever before are residents in senior housing properties.
Takeaway #3: Annual Inventory Growth Rate Remained Low
- The inventory growth rate for both assisted living and independent living remained relatively low at 1.6% and 1.3% year-over-year in the second quarter, respectively.
Takeaway #4: Senior Housing Units Under Construction Least Since 2014
- The number of senior housing units under construction in the Primary Markets continued to decline and stood at less than 27,000 units in the second quarter of 2024, which was the lowest level in 10 years.
- By property type, majority independent living properties and majority assisted living properties each comprised roughly half of the construction under way.
- As a share of existing assisted living inventory, units under construction totaled 3.9%, well below its peak of 10.2% in 2017.
- For independent living, units under construction totaled 3.6% of existing inventory, down from its peak of 6.7% in 2020.
Takeaway #5: Construction Activity Still Slow in Most Markets
- By metro area, this heat map shows which markets are experiencing the most construction activity.
- The blue tones on the right side of the chart for the most recent quarter indicate that construction activity is relatively “cool” in most markets.
- And the markets that are shaded brighter red had the most construction as a percent of inventory in the first quarter. This group continues to be led by Washington, D.C., and San Jose, followed by Los Angeles and Denver.
- At the other end of the spectrum are markets where there is very little construction underway, although we no longer observe any markets with zero construction.
