Data from the recently released 3Q 2024 NIC MAP Vision Actual Rates Report show that:
Independent living (IL) properties experienced a strong rebound in year-over-year growth across all rate types.
In the third quarter of 2024, independent living (IL) properties experienced a strong rebound in year-over-year growth across all rate types, following a period of deceleration in prior quarters. Meanwhile, assisted living (AL) properties showed steadier, more moderate growth, with some rate categories experiencing slight declines.
– Independent living properties achieved a new time series high in September 2024, with year-over-year growth in initial rates reaching 12.2%. This marks a sharp rebound from the slight decline (-0.3%) recorded in June 2024. Similarly, both in-place rates and asking rates also measured a robust 9.8% and 8.9% growth from year-earlier levels, respectively.
– Assisted living properties experienced steadier rate growth patterns. Initial rates grew modestly by 3.7% year-over-year in September 2024, up from 2.4% in June 2024. Asking rates saw a slight decline in year-over-year growth, slipping to 6.1% in September from 6.4% in June, while in-place rates held steady at 5.4%. However, the pace of growth across all assisted living rate types remained below their year-earlier levels.
Note that property designations refer to majority property type, i.e., independent living properties are properties where independent living units comprise the largest share of inventory.
Discounting from asking rates hit a time series high for assisted living (AL) properties, while independent living (IL) properties experienced a notable decline in discounting.
– Average initial rates for independent living properties were 7.4% ($319) below asking rates in September 2024, the smallest discount since February 2023. This equates to a 0.9-month discount on an annualized basis, a notable decline from the 1.9-month discount recorded in June 2024.
– Assisted living properties saw a slight increase in the discount between initial rates and asking rates in the third quarter of 2024. In July 2024, average initial rates were 10.6% ($703) below asking rates, equivalent to a 1.3-month discount on an annualized basis, the highest discount since at least 2019.
Move-ins exceeded move-outs in the third quarter of 2024 for both independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL) properties.
– The percentage of move-ins for independent living properties stood at 2.4% in September 2024, down slightly from 2.9% in June 2024.
– For assisted living properties, the percentage of move-ins remained strong at 3.4% in July 2024, 3.3% in August, and 3.1% in September 2024.
Additional key takeaways are available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers in the full report.
About the Report
The NIC MAP Vision Seniors Housing Actual Rates Report provides aggregate national data from approximately 300,000 units within more than 2,700 properties across the U.S. operated by 35 to 40 senior housing providers. The operators included in the current sample tend to be larger, professionally managed, and investment-grade operators as a requirement for participation is restricted to operators who manage 5 or more properties. Visit NIC MAP Vision’s website for more information.