Data from the recently released 3Q 2024 NIC MAP Vision Actual Rates Report show that: 

Independent living (IL) properties experienced a strong rebound in year-over-year growth across all rate types.

In the third quarter of 2024, independent living (IL) properties experienced a strong rebound in year-over-year growth across all rate types, following a period of deceleration in prior quarters. Meanwhile, assisted living (AL) properties showed steadier, more moderate growth, with some rate categories experiencing slight declines.         

– Independent living properties achieved a new time series high in September 2024, with year-over-year growth in initial rates reaching 12.2%. This marks a sharp rebound from the slight decline (-0.3%) recorded in June 2024. Similarly, both in-place rates and asking rates also measured a robust 9.8% and 8.9% growth from year-earlier levels, respectively.

– Assisted living properties experienced steadier rate growth patterns. Initial rates grew modestly by 3.7% year-over-year in September 2024, up from 2.4% in June 2024. Asking rates saw a slight decline in year-over-year growth, slipping to 6.1% in September from 6.4% in June, while in-place rates held steady at 5.4%. However, the pace of growth across all assisted living rate types remained below their year-earlier levels.

Note that property designations refer to majority property type, i.e., independent living properties are properties where independent living units comprise the largest share of inventory.

Discounting from asking rates hit a time series high for assisted living (AL) properties, while independent living (IL) properties experienced a notable decline in discounting.

– Average initial rates for independent living properties were 7.4% ($319) below asking rates in September 2024, the smallest discount since February 2023. This equates to a 0.9-month discount on an annualized basis, a notable decline from the 1.9-month discount recorded in June 2024.

– Assisted living properties saw a slight increase in the discount between initial rates and asking rates in the third quarter of 2024. In July 2024, average initial rates were 10.6% ($703) below asking rates, equivalent to a 1.3-month discount on an annualized basis, the highest discount since at least 2019.

Move-ins exceeded move-outs in the third quarter of 2024 for both independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL) properties.

– The percentage of move-ins for independent living properties stood at 2.4% in September 2024, down slightly from 2.9% in June 2024.

– For assisted living properties, the percentage of move-ins remained strong at 3.4% in July 2024, 3.3% in August, and 3.1% in September 2024.

Additional key takeaways are available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers in the full report.   

About the Report   

The NIC MAP Vision Seniors Housing Actual Rates Report provides aggregate national data from approximately 300,000 units within more than 2,700 properties across the U.S. operated by 35 to 40 senior housing providers. The operators included in the current sample tend to be larger, professionally managed, and investment-grade operators as a requirement for participation is restricted to operators who manage 5 or more properties. Visit NIC MAP Vision’s website for more information.  

NIC Analytics released the 1H 2024 NIC Lending Trends Report. This complimentary report includes data trends over eight years for senior housing and nursing care construction loans, mini-perm/bridge loans, permanent loans, and delinquencies from 3Q 2016 through 2Q 2024. The report is based on survey contributions from 17 participating lenders.

Survey Comments from the Field:

The survey not only gathered data for inclusion in this report, but also commentary on what is driving lending trends. As noted by contributors, rising interest rates, driven by an increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, led to higher borrowing costs and debt-service coverage constraints. As traditional banks and finance companies tightened credit availability, lenders focused on stronger borrowers, loans with lower loan-to-value ratios, and robust sponsor profiles. These conditions, coupled with reduced transaction-related lending, limited deal flow in the first half of 2024. Despite this, the pace of loan applications and approvals picked up in 2Q24, hinting at cautious optimism for the second half of 2024 and beyond.

New permanent loan volume closed for senior housing rebounded to its highest level since 2020.

Despite high borrowing costs and limited deal flow early in the year, loan application and approval activity gained momentum in 2Q24, signaling cautious optimism for the permanent lending market.

New permanent loan volumes for senior housing increased by over 200% from 1Q24, surpassing $2 billion. This growth reflects a rebound in lending activity with levels exceeding those observed at any point since 2020. Loan volumes for nursing care also rose by nearly 60% in 2Q24. This growth reflects a more measured and gradual recovery for the nursing care sector amid improved Medicaid reimbursement rates and occupancy trends.

This shift highlights renewed confidence in long-term investments, even as lenders navigate the challenges of a higher interest rate environment.

New mini-perm/bridge loan volume activity stayed low due to high borrowing costs and lender caution.

New mini-perm and bridge loan volumes remained low for both senior housing and nursing care in the first half of 2024, reflecting continued caution among lenders. High borrowing costs, driven by the Fed’s target rate of 5.25-5.50%, impacted short-term lending. This environment made bridge loans less attractive to buyers and more difficult for lenders to underwrite.

Lenders primarily focused on selective deals with existing borrowers and properties demonstrating strong performance metrics. Despite an increase in requests for bridge financing, the actual deal flow was limited, reflecting the overall tightening of credit availability. The challenging conditions highlighted a cautious approach among lenders navigating high-interest rate environments while prioritizing stronger credit profiles.

New construction loan volume for senior housing showed slight improvement but stayed below norms.

Construction loan activity for senior housing showed slight improvement in the first half of 2024 but remained well below historical standards. While there has been a modest uptick in lending, the number of senior housing units under construction continued to hover near its lowest levels since 2015, reflecting ongoing caution among lenders and developers. Construction starts, which have been weak in 2024, have yet to recover meaningfully.

In contrast, construction lending for nursing care remained virtually nonexistent, with no activity in the first half of 2024 among contributing lenders. The high cost of borrowing and uncertainties surrounding the sector’s operational challenges have further constrained new development. Overall, construction lending trends highlight a slow recovery in senior housing and a continued lack of momentum in nursing care.

Total delinquent loans for senior housing continued to decline, while nursing care delinquencies increased.

Delinquency rates for senior housing loans appear to have peaked last year and continued to improve in 2024, declining for the third consecutive quarter. As of the first half of 2024, delinquencies represented 3.9% of total loans, down from the peak of 4.4% in late 2023. However, it is worth noting that loans in forbearance are included in the delinquent loan data for some debt providers, slightly influencing these figures.

In contrast, delinquency rates for nursing care loans have continued rising for three consecutive quarters, reaching 2.7% in 2024, up from the time series low of 0.6% in late 2023. This increase highlights ongoing operational challenges in the nursing care sector. Additionally, foreclosures reported in 1H 2024 totaled $51.8 million for senior housing and $43.2 million for nursing care, indicating the continued pressures facing some borrowers in both sectors.

Download the complimentary 1H 2024 NIC Lending Trends Report for full details on these and other trends in senior housing and skilled nursing lending. 

Note: This data is not to be interpreted as a census of all senior housing and skilled nursing lending activity in the U.S. but rather reflect lending activity from participants included in the survey sample only. 

The 2H 2024 NIC Lending Trends Report is scheduled for release in May 2025.

Interested in participating? The NIC Lending Trends Report helps NIC Analytics deliver on NIC’s mission to enable access and choice by further enhancing transparency of capital market trends in the senior housing and care sectors. We very much appreciate our data contributors. This report would not be possible without them. 

If you would like to participate and contribute your data to future lending trends surveys, please contact us at analytics@nic.org. As a courtesy for providing data, data contributors receive this report early before publication on the website. The information provided as part of the survey will be kept strictly confidential. Individual answers will be combined with all other responses. Data acquired from this survey will only be reported in the aggregate, and therefore, the resulting aggregated data will not be attributed to you or your company upon distribution. 

The NIC Spring Conference is proud to showcase an incredible lineup of women speakers shaping the future of senior housing and care. From transformative innovators to thought leaders on the main stage, this year’s program highlights the brilliant minds and compassionate hearts driving meaningful change in our industry.

Join us in celebrating these remarkable women as we spotlight their expertise, their stories, and their impact. Let their voices inspire us to envision a brighter future for aging adults everywhere.

Innovation Lab Speakers: Pioneers of Progress

The Innovation Lab is a space where bold ideas meet actionable insights, and this year’s female speakers are at the forefront of change:

• Suzanne Koenig: Providing skills in operations improvement, staff development and quality assurance.

• Julie Simpkins: New and strategic perspectives on growth initiatives and marketing in the service-enriched housing sector.

• Edie Smith: Serving the age-qualified housing sector for nearly 30 years.

• Terry Spitznagel: Responsible for all UCH senior living and affordable housing operations, as well as developing new business lines.

• Eva Arant: Fostering a thriving organizational culture and delivering exceptional care.

• Erin Hennessy: Two decades of success building disruptive innovations.

• Vassar Byrd: Envisioning new and innovative ways to serve older adults.

Main Stage Speakers: Voices of Vision and Leadership

This year’s main stage is packed with powerhouse women driving conversations around health, housing, and equity:

• Astha Chopra: Her commitment to wellness and preventive care is inspired by her grandfather’s legacy.

• Catherine Field: Expanding Humana’s value-based provider relationships.

• Jessica Johnson: Providing critical banking services to senior housing and skilled nursing nationwide.

• Dr. Katy Lanz: Two decades of success building disruptive innovations.

• Lynne Katzmann: 20 properties in four states, more than 1200 employees, and $65 million in revenues.

• Lisa McCracken: Driving research with nationally recognized partners to help the next generation of senior housing and care leaders.

• Kristi Oliver: Driving operational excellence and financial performance.

• Dr. Catherine O’Brien: Sparking innovation and advancing the senor living and aging services industry.

• Laurie Schultz: Balancing real estate investments with forward thinking healthcare trends.

• Jennifer Wong: Sourcing and managing AEW’s healthcare investments.

• Anne Tumlinson: Advising the nation’s top public and private leaders in healthcare.

• Colleen Blumenthal: Appraising and consulting for seniors housing and care properties for 30 years.

• Stephanie Boreale: Building clinical operations and innovative strategies for whole person wellness.

The 2025 NIC Spring Conference is your opportunity to learn from these extraordinary women and more. Together, we’ll redefine what’s possible in senior housing and care. Explore the full program here and register now.

Are you ready to elevate your knowledge, connections, and influence in the senior housing and care industry? The NIC Spring Conference is the industry’s premier event, offering unparalleled opportunities to grow professionally and strategically. Registration is now open!

Whether you’re a senior housing operator, an investor, or a service provider, the conference provides a rich blend of networking, education, and actionable insights designed to help you navigate today’s challenges and seize tomorrow’s opportunities.

Top Reasons to Attend:

1. Unparalleled Networking Opportunities:
   • Build relationships with peers, decision-makers, and thought leaders in the senior housing and care industry. Whether it’s connecting over coffee or during structured sessions, these interactions can lead to meaningful collaborations and partnerships.

2. Expert-Led Sessions:
   • Hear from top-tier speakers sharing cutting-edge strategies on topics such as capital and investment, innovative operational models, and senior housing trends shaping the future.

3. Actionable Takeaways:
   • Equip yourself with strategies and tools to address industry challenges and implement solutions that advance your organization’s goals.

4. Innovation Lab:
   • Witness cutting-edge technologies and innovative solutions designed to transform senior care operations.

5. Stay Ahead of Trends:
   • Gain exclusive insights into market dynamics and future trends that will keep you ahead in this competitive landscape.

Don’t Miss Out: Register by January 10th to take advantage of Early Bird rates and secure your spot at this transformative event. Join us and become part of the conversation shaping the future of senior housing and care. Register now and take the next step in driving meaningful change!

In September 2024, NIC published an article on the potential for growing family office participation in the senior housing sector, particularly given the notable increase in family offices globally and their common allocations for real estate investments. While the value proposition for both senior housing and family offices exists, it is helpful to fully understand the family office investor, how they might think about senior housing as an alternative investment and how unique dynamics of the family office structure can best be navigated by those looking to connect. This article outlines valuable resources that provide useful data points, tools and insights for senior housing operators, developers and fund managers.  

For background, there are several helpful reports and articles that outline common family office characteristics, investment allocations, and general structural considerations.  

1. The Family Office Real Estate Trends You Need to Know  

2. Family Offices are About to Surpass Hedge Funds with $5.4 trillion in Assets by 2030 

3. More Family Offices are Hiring CIO-led Investment Teams 

4. 2024 Global Family Office Report 

5. Family Barometer 2024 

6. Family Office & RIA/Broker Dealer Monthly Data Report 

7. Understanding Investment Decisions in the Family Office 

For those looking to subscribe to recurring newsletters and publications from experts who understand family offices and related topics, the list below provides a variety of options for the reader to consider.  

1. Mr. Family Office Newsletter: This free newsletter provides insightful articles on hot topics related to family offices. Mr. Family Office is also active on social media, another way to stay on top of these interesting reads.  

2. FINTRX: They are a family office and registered investment advisor intelligence platform. FINTRIX offers a variety of blog articles and reports on the investing trends of family offices. One interesting component of their weekly roundup newsletter is the ‘Private Funding Pulse Check,’ which shows recent family office investments.    

3. Family Business Magazine: This outlet provides a combination of resources that are free to readers along with more in-depth articles and reports that are behind a paid firewall. As an aside, the subscription fees are relatively nominal given the amount of material included. Family Business Magazine also hosts several key industry conferences each year.  

4. Family Office Exchange: FOX, as it is called, has a number of resources for family offices and their advisors, including well-respected events, robust thought leadership and newsletters accessible to non-members.  

5. Family Office Insider: The resources from FOI are a combination of paid subscriptions and more limited access for the public via newsletters and reports on their website. They cater to a global audience and often share resources on family office investments. 

There are several family office conferences as well, all of which vary in terms of size, audience and focus. Some events are limited to family members and their office staff, but others are open to external attendees. It is also important to check the geographic focus of the events, whether geared toward U.S. family offices or to a global audience. There are several conferences that focus on investments and some even on real estate, but many others are geared towards the unique aspects of family offices such as succession planning, governance best practices and family office structures. If looking to attend a family office conference, it is probably best to view it as an educational event and not an opportunity to directly target unknown family office representatives for investments. Family office members can be guarded for obvious reasons, and they attend conferences to learn and share, so investment conversations need to be respectful of any unspoken boundaries.    

NIC will continue to track family offices as a potential capital partner and educate both those family offices about senior housing investments as well as share insights with developers and operators on the best way to align with family office dollars.