Skilled Nursing Occupancy Declined in September 2022

NIC MAP Vision released its latest Skilled Nursing Monthly Report on December 1, 2022.

“Medicaid represents over half of the revenue for skilled nursing properties. It is vital for operators and investors to pay close attention to the reimbursement trends in their states as most states do not cover the cost of care.”

– Bill Kauffman

NIC MAP Vision released its latest Skilled Nursing Monthly Report on December 1, 2022. The report includes key monthly data points from January 2012 through September 2022.
Here are some key takeaways from the report:

Occupancy

After increasing for two months in a row, skilled nursing property occupancy declined from August to September, decreasing 40 basis points to 78.4%. Nevertheless, occupancy was up 188 basis points from one year earlier in September 2021 as it continues to recover since the pandemic low of 73.0% set in January 2021. Some challenges do persist as staffing shortages continue to create difficulties within skilled nursing properties limiting the ability to admit new patients in some markets. However, the current occupancy trend does suggest that demand for skilled nursing properties is recovering, given the 172-basis point increase from January to September this year (2022). That said, occupancy remained low compared to February 2020 pre-pandemic levels of 87.2% (8.8 percentage points).

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Medicare

Medicare revenue per patient day (RPPD) decreased slightly from August to end September 2022 at $572. It has declined 3.1% since January when cases of COVID-19 were increasing in skilled nursing properties. The RPPD was higher in January likely because the Public Health Emergency (PHE) was still in place and the federal government had implemented initiatives to aid Medicare fee-for-service reimbursements to help care for COVID-19 positive patients requiring isolation. Meanwhile, Medicare revenue mix declined, falling 50 basis points from August to end September at 21.2%. It has also declined since January of this year when it was 24.4%.

Managed Care

Managed Medicare revenue mix declined slightly in September, dropping 19 basis points from August to to 10.2% and 130 basis points from its recent high of 11.5% in February. However, it is up by 211 basis points from the pandemic low set in May 2020 of 8.4%. Expectations are that it will continue to increase over time with the growth of Managed Medicare. Meanwhile, Managed Medicare revenue per patient day (RPPD) decreased from $461 to $460 in September and is down 1.7% from last year in September 2021. It has decreased $117 (20.2%) from January 2012 and continues to pressure some operators’ revenue as managed Medicare enrollment grows around the country. However, some operators see managed Medicare as an opportunity for growth in patient volume.

Medicaid

Medicaid patient day mix increased to 65.1 % in September and was up210 basis points from the pandemic low of 63.0% set in January 2021. In addition, Medicaid revenue mix increased in September, representing over half of property revenue. It has increased 345 basis points from the pandemic low of 48.3% set in February 2022. Meanwhile, Medicaid revenue per patient day (RPPD) held steady at $257 in September. It increased 1.2% from $254 one year ago in September 2021.

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Get more trends from the latest data by downloading the Skilled Nursing Monthly Report. There is no charge for this report.

The report provides aggregate data at the national level from a sampling of skilled nursing operators with multiple properties in the United States. NIC continues to grow its database of participating operators to provide data at localized levels in the future. Operators who are interested in participating can complete a participation form on our website. NIC maintains strict confidentiality of all data it receives.

Is Now the Time to Invest?

At the session, “Why Now is a Good Time to Invest in Senior Housing,” experts mapped out the positive case for investment today, along with timely caveats.

Experts Make the Case for Senior Housing

In an uncertain economic environment, what’s an investor to do?

That question was explored during two educational sessions at the 2022 NIC Fall Conference, held September 14-16, in Washington, D.C.

At the session, “Why Now is a Good Time to Invest in Senior Housing,” experts mapped out the positive case for investment today, along with some timely caveats.

Separately, in a lively session patterned after the popular TV game show, “Deal or No Deal,” lenders and investors took a deep dive into real transactions. The format highlighted the strategies of different investors, who revealed their “Deal or No Deal” decisions by opening a replica of the show’s iconic briefcase.

Putting the senior housing market in broad context, Robert Chapin moderated the session on why to invest. “We’re in this for the long game,” said Chapin, CEO at Bridge Investment Group, with $42 billion of assets under management. “We have to make sure we have the right product to get ahead of the demand curve.”

Panelists agreed that demographic trends will continue to drive the overall investment case for senior housing over time. By 2030, all baby boomers will be age 65 or older. “We have to see through the current uncertainty,” said Adam Zeiger, director, Senior Housing Vertical, Hudson Advisors.

Adam Zeiger WHY NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN SENIOR HOUSING

Today, investors face a long list of uncertainties: high inflation, rising interest rates, the overhang of the pandemic, occupancy challenges, and the possibility of a recession.

“Focus on what is in your control,” advised David Selznick, chief investment officer, Kayne Anderson Real Estate Advisors. Select markets carefully. Analyze the property’s net operating income and how to increase cash flow over time. “The key is to be disciplined and patient,” he added.

The panelists said that the higher cost of borrowing is slowing new construction starts which will eventually result in less competition—another reason to invest today. “If you can build now, you will look smart in a couple years,” said Selznick.

Ryan Companies had a robust pipeline of new projects in 2020. “We pushed forward,” said Julie Ferguson, executive vice president, Senior Living, Ryan Companies. “We knew when we opened we would be in a less competitive environment.”

Long-standing debt and equity relationships allowed Ryan Companies to continue building. But rising construction costs have been a challenge, compelling the company to focus on high-end markets that can command high rents.

Transaction volume is down for the year, the panelists noted. Rising interest rates, the war in Europe and the possibility of a recession have pushed some buyers to the sidelines. “Fear is pervasive,” said Selznick.

Another drag on transactions is the pricing mismatch between buyers and sellers. They can’t agree on valuations. Owners who can afford not to sell are waiting to see if the market improves.

Investors face other challenges. Underwriting transactions is tricky. Labor costs and other expenses are hard to predict.

Also, the recovery from the pandemic is uneven. Some markets are regaining occupancy faster than others. “We focus on where we can build and be successful,” said Ferguson. She explained that Ryan Companies analyzes the local labor market, gauging unemployment rates and wage trends. Consumer demand is another big factor. The company evaluates where customers are coming from. The pro forma document stress tests underwriting assumptions.

Kayne Anderson focuses on markets with high levels of in-migration and high net wealth. Bolstering the case to invest in senior housing, Selznick added that the pandemic demonstrated the importance of socialization for older adults. “Senior housing is the most helpful setting,” he said.

David Selznick WHY NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN SENIOR HOUSING

The panelists addressed the question of whether investors will have pricing power in the next 24 months. Recent price increases have generally been accepted by consumers. At the Ryan properties, rents are up 8-10% and the cost of care is up 15%. “Families get it,” said Ferguson, adding that operators are prepared to talk about the need for price increases with consumers.

In the near term, the panelists expect revenue to grow and expenses to moderate. The consumer will absorb some of the higher costs for labor and other expenses.

Low levels of new construction will help margins rebound over the next few years. “If you plan to hold a property for five to seven years, you should be buying senior housing today,” said Selznick.

“Deal or No Deal”

Debt and equity lenders, and owners took the stage for the “Deal or No Deal” session. The panel was moderated by Ben Firestone, CEO & co-founder, Blueprint; and David Harper, senior vice president, Originations, Capital One.

Panelists gave their perspective on several case studies. For example, National Health Investors, a senior housing REIT, is focused on cash-on-cash yield to enable the payment of dividends to its shareholders, according to Michelle Kelly, senior vice president at the REIT.

WHY NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN SENIOR HOUSING

Equity sources—represented on the panel by Dana Scheppman, vice president, PGIM Real Estate—are more patient, willing to wait longer for solid returns. Meanwhile, lenders are concerned about debt service coverage. Banks want to understand the borrower and check their assumptions, said panelist Chris Taylor, managing director, Capital One.

The “Deal or No Deal” case studies highlighted different types of properties. Stand-alone memory care is difficult to underwrite. A value-add property could be good deal but may also be too risky in this economic environment.

The panelists agreed that the deals might have been slam-dunks three years ago. Now, there’s more to consider with the rising cost of capital and higher expenses. “There are a lot of moving parts,” said Kelly.

Emerging Trends in Senior Housing

Major factors influencing senior housing continue to evolve. Some trends are well known while others are still developing.

This article originally appeared in the “Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2023” report issued by the Urban Land Institute and PwC. Data cited in article as of original publish date; more current data may be available. 

 

Major factors influencing senior housing continue to evolve. Some trends are well known while others are still developing. In 2022 and into 2023, trends for senior housing include the following:

  1. The growth of the sector into new product types differentiated by rate and service offerings as the sector continues to mature and evolve.
  2. The articulation of a new value proposition for senior housing as the proverbial “fountain of youth” for future baby boomer residents who seek a high quality of life, wellness, longevity, and purpose.
  3. The recognition that senior housing is truly part of the health care continuum.
  4. The gradual recovery of occupancy from the nadir reached during COVID-19, boosted by a recent slowdown in inventory growth and strong post-pandemic demand patterns.
  5. Outside exogenous factors including the national and global economies, inflation, and rising interest rates, which present new challenges for senior housing.
  6. Staff recruitment and retention as well as rising expenses associated with labor shortages, insurance, food, energy, and other goods and services. Collectively, these are squeezing operator margins, investment returns, and debt issuance.
  7. And, of course, U.S. demographic patterns, which are pushing greater numbers of individuals into the 75-plus cohort, creating a captive pool of potential new residents for senior housing.
  8. These and other topics will be further explored in this commentary.

Sector maturation. It is an exciting time in the senior living industry as the sector matures and product offerings become increasingly differentiated. Much like the hotel industry, with offerings from Motel 6 to the Ritz-Carlton, operators, developers, and capital providers are increasingly segmenting the senior housing market by both price point and service offerings. “Active adult” offers amenitized rental housing for the “younger old” cohort seeking community involvement, lifestyle, purpose, and connection. The “Forgotten Middle,” a term coined by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) in its 2019 seminal study that assessed and quantified the need for more affordable housing and care options for middle-income seniors, offers care and housing options for the value-minded older adult consumer. And “ultra-luxury retirement communities” offer older adults high-end concierge lifestyle living options with wellness centers, five-star culinary options, entertainment, and A-list cultural events. And, of course, there remains the traditional senior housing product, with a price point that falls between the latter two and offers a value proposition of security, socialization, engagement, room and board, care coordination, and lifestyle

Wellness value proposition. Many operators are increasingly recognizing that senior housing provides an environment that can promote and support health and wellness, enticements to the baby boomers as they age and seek the proverbial “fountain of youth.” Further, the movement of many operators to incorporate wellness programs into their offerings has the ability to be a significant competitive advantage as potential residents seek communities that hold promise to improve the quality of their life through programs focused on the intellectual, physical, social, spiritual, vocational, emotional, and environmental dimensions of wellness as defined by the International Council on Active Aging (ICAA).

Senior housing as part of the continuum of care. Simply stated, senior housing operators influence social determinants of health for hundreds of thousands of older Americans. Operators can help manage chronic illness and keep older adults healthy—they have 24/7 eyes on residents and can systematically monitor changes in conditions. Properly managed, this can result in fewer resident hospitalizations, reduce federal and state-level health care spending, and act as a catalyst for future business opportunities and collaborations. Further, thoughtful care intervention can provide support to the overall health care ecosystem through the support and creation of conscientious awareness and follow-through. And, once senior housing is fully recognized as part of the health care continuum, senior housing operators will be able to participate in the revenue streams associated with a capitated risk-sharing model of care.

Tailwinds for occupancy recovery. There are two tailwinds supporting an ongoing occupancy recovery for senior housing. First, on the supply side, the number of senior housing units under construction in the second quarter of 2022 for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets was the fewest since 2015. And that pattern may remain in place—at least in the near term—because senior housing starts continue to linger at moderate levels and remain well below their peaks seen in the 2016–2018 period. This is because rising materials prices and inflation, labor shortages in the building trade industries, and the change in Fed policy of higher interest rates are collectively affecting plans for new development; many projects increasingly do not pencil out for reasonable returns.

Second, demand is also a tailwind for an ongoing improvement in occupancy. Indeed, demand, as measured by the change in occupied inventory or net absorption, was robust in the second quarter of 2022, increasing at its strongest pace ever recorded by NIC MAP Vision except for the post-pandemic boost in demand in the last half of 2021. Since the recovery began in the second quarter of 2021, 78 percent of the units placed back on the market have been reoccupied.

As a result of these conditions, the occupancy rate for seniors housing—where seniors housing is defined as the combination of the majority independent living and assisted living properties—rose 0.9 percentage point during the second quarter of 2022 to 81.4 percent for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter where occupancy did not decline. At 81.4 percent in the second quarter, occupancy was 3.4 percentage points above its pandemic-related low of 78.0 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2021 but was 5.8 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level of 87.2 percent in the first quarter of 2020.

Outside influencing factors. Looking ahead, several exogenous factors will influence the strength of net move-ins and demand. These include demographics (as discussed further below) as well as the following:

  1. The broad performance of the U.S. economy,
  2. Consumer confidence (very low, according to the University of Michigan survey),
  3. The rate of inflation (the Consumer Price Index increased by 9.1 percent from year-earlier levels in June 2022, resulting in the largest increase since 1981),
  4. Interest rates (rising as the Fed tightens monetary policy and increases the fed funds rate),
  5. The pace of sales for residential housing (slowing from higher mortgage interest rates),
  6. The stock market (considered in a bear market),
  7. Pent-up demand for senior living settings (strong through the second half of 2022),
  8. Development currently underway (moderately paced compared with history),
  9. New competition in the form of recently opened properties since the pandemic began, and
  10. Local market area demand and supply pressures.

Staffing challenges. Importantly, labor also is a key consideration, with an increasing number of operators citing labor shortages as a potential limiting constraint on growth. In the WMRE/NIC Investor Sentiment Survey conducted in June 2022, just under half of respondents (41 percent) reported that labor shortages have caused a reduction in the number of operating units/beds in their portfolios. This is presenting challenges for operators seeking to maintain census, much less grow and expand.

Indeed, the U.S. jobless rate was low at 3.6 percent in June 2022 and was only 0.1 percentage point above the pre-pandemic level of 3.5 percent seen in February 2020. Further, tight labor market conditions are pressuring wage rates up quickly, especially for workers in skilled nursing and assisted living properties.

While good for employees, low jobless rates present challenges to employers who must staff their businesses. Surveys conducted by the NIC among C-suite operators of senior housing and care properties highlight strategies to combat labor shortages and include raising wages, offering flexible work hours, higher pay frequency, improving the work environment and culture, recruitment programs comparable to those used to market to new residents, and collaboration with educational institutions.

Expenses, margins, and returns. Rising wage costs associated with temporary agency workers, overtime hours, and sick leave associated with COVID-19 have combined with dollars expended on personal protective equipment (PPE) and rising insurance costs to put significant pressure on expenses. Rent growth, while rising, has not been sufficiently able to offset expense growth for many operators. As a result, net operating income (NOI) has been hard to achieve for many—but certainly not for all—operators of senior housing properties.

COVID was particularly hard on the senior housing sector. Many investors had reduced their appreciation expectations for senior housing as the impact of the coronavirus weighed heavily on their view of the sector. According to NCREIF Property Index (NPI) investment return data, short-term total returns for senior housing were low at 1.08 percent in the first quarter of 2022 compared with the broader NPI, which saw total returns of 5.33 percent in the first quarter. Appreciation returns for the NPI dwarf those of senior housing, since the NPI was boosted in part by outsized returns in industrial properties (10.96 percent). The senior housing income return in the first quarter was 0.91 percent, its best showing since late 2020. This was stronger than industrial and nearly on par with apartments, and slightly less than the NPI (0.99 percent).

Nevertheless, on a longer-term basis, the 10-year return for senior housing was the strongest of the main property types except for industrial. For this time frame, the income returns for senior housing (5.47 percent) surpassed the NPI (4.83 percent), while the appreciation return (4.49 percent) was slightly less than the NPI (4.61 percent).

Demographics favor senior housing. The demographics supporting senior housing cannot be denied, as the number and share of older adults continue to grow. For example, the number of persons 82 or older—often the age of a resident moving into senior housing—is growing at an accelerating pace. In 2022, there were 10.6 million Americans aged 82 and older; by 2026, this is projected to grow to 12.3 million, and by 2030 to 14.8 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Further, in the not very distant future, the ratio of adult children family caregivers (those aged 45 to 64) who are available to take care of aging parents (those over 80 years of age) will continue to shrink at a precipitous pace from 7:1 in 2015 to 6:1 in 2022 to 5:1 in 2026 to 4:1 in 2031 and to 3:1 in 2044.

With fewer family members and spouses available for care (divorce rates are high for older adults), congregate settings will indeed get a further demand boost. In addition, the increasing segmentation and differentiation of senior housing in serving the vast numbers of seniors in middle-income cohort will add a large demand pool for operators to serve, as will the movement of “younger old” aging adults into the active adult segment. With an industry penetration rate of roughly 11 percent of U.S. households, the penetration rate does not need to increase dramatically for occupancy to rise to pre-pandemic levels.

Looking ahead, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for senior housing, but the path forward may be a bit bumpy due to the prevailing winds in the broader economy. Inventory will continue to expand, although at a reduced pace in the near term, which should act as a tailwind for occupancy improvement. And, while demand may also be affected by economic headwinds, the value proposition of senior housing—security, socialization, engagement, room and board, care coordination, and lifestyle—remains in place and ultimately should win the day by attracting new residents for senior housing properties. In addition, the movement of many operators to incorporate wellness programs into their offerings has the potential to be a significant competitive advantage as potential residents seek communities that hold promise to improve the quality and length of their lives.

Executive Survey Insights Wave 47: October 17 to November 13, 2022

This Wave 47 survey includes responses from October 17 to November 13, 2022, from owners and executives of 46 senior housing and skilled nursing operators.

“Single-site operators and those with between two and nine properties were more likely to be considering product diversification, with single-site operators favoring lower acuity settings (36%) and those with between two and nine properties equally considering lower acuity (20%) and higher acuity settings (20%).

With regards to expected changes to various care segments in their portfolio of properties, approximately half of respondents expect to increase the active adult (age 55+) and independent living care segments, while just under one-half (45% and 41%) anticipate increases in their assisted living and memory care segments.

When asked about the contributing factors to the acceleration of move-outs, operators cite residents moving to higher levels of care as the leading cause (45%), followed by deaths (35%), resident and family member concerns (10%), natural disasters (5%), and current economic conditions (5%).”

–Ryan Brooks, Senior Principal, NIC

This Wave 47 survey includes responses from October 17 to November 13, 2022, from owners and executives of 46 small, medium, and large senior housing and skilled nursing operators across the nation, representing hundreds of buildings and thousands of units across respondents’ portfolios of properties. More detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey and a PDF of the report charts can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights.

In the Wave 47 survey, reflecting operator experiences in October and November 2022, survey respondents were asked about their considerations on diversifying and expanding their product offering into higher acuity or lower acuity settings. Single-site operators and those with between two and nine properties were more likely to be considering product diversification, with single-site operators favoring lower acuity settings (36%) and those with between two and nine properties equally considering lower acuity (20%) and higher acuity settings (20%).

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Larger operators were less likely to be considering product diversification, as three-quarters of those with 10 to 25 properties (77%) and those with 26 or more properties (78%) were not considering diversifying their offerings.

Respondents were also asked whether their organization expected to increase or decrease specific care segments in their portfolio of properties over the next 12 months. Approximately half (53% and 49%) of respondents expect to increase the active adult (age 55+) and independent living care segments, while just under one-half (45% and 41%) anticipate increases in their assisted living and memory care segments.

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Short stay/rehab and nursing care were the only care segments with survey respondents reporting expected decreases in their portfolio of properties over the next 12 months. One-quarter (24%) of respondents anticipate decreasing nursing care and one-tenth (11%) anticipate decreasing short stay/rehab within their portfolio of properties.

The share of operators reporting a deceleration in the pace of move-ins in the past 30 days went up for independent living operators (26%) but fell for nursing care operators (6%). This marks the fifth consecutive wave with an increase in independent living operators reporting a deceleration in the pace of move-ins. For nursing care, it is the third consecutive wave with a decline in the rate of operators reporting a deceleration in the pace of move-ins. The share of assisted living (14%) and memory care operators (16%) reporting a deceleration in the pace of move-ins remained stable compared to the previous wave.

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Of respondents indicating a deceleration in the pace of move-ins, 80% indicate the deceleration is a result of a slowdown in leads conversions or sales. Accounting for the remaining 20% are resident or family member concerns, routine seasonality, and natural disasters.

Wave 47 Survey Demographics

  • Responses were collected between October 17 and November 13, 2022, from owners and executives of 46 senior housing and skilled nursing operators across the nation.
  • Owners/operators with 1 to 10 properties comprise roughly one-half of the sample (52%). Operators with 11 to 25 properties account for 28%, and operators with 26 properties or more make up the rest of the sample with 20%.
  • More than one-half of respondents are exclusively for-profit providers (59%), one-third operate not-for-profit seniors housing and care properties (37%), and 4% operate both.
  • Many respondents in the sample report operating combinations of property types. Across their entire portfolios of properties, three-quarters (74%) of the organizations operate seniors housing properties (IL, AL, MC), 17% operate nursing care properties, and 30% operate CCRCs – also known as life plan communities.

This is your survey! Owners and C-suite executives of seniors housing and care properties, please help us tell an accurate story about our industry’s performance. The ESI 2022 questionnaire has been shortened from prior surveys. While some standard questions will remain for tracking purposes, in each new survey wave, new questions can be added based on respondents’ suggestions.

Wave 48 of the ESI is now live and new questions have been added. The current survey is available and takes 12 minutes to complete. If you are an owner or C-suite executive of seniors housing and care and have not received an email invitation to take the survey, please contact Ryan Brooks at rbrooks@nic.org to be added to the list of recipients.

NIC wishes to thank survey respondents for their valuable input and continuing support for this effort to provide the broader market with a sense of the evolving landscape as we recover from the pandemic.

Senior Housing Occupancy Rate Over Halfway Back to Pre-Pandemic Level

The all-occupancy rate for senior housing for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased to 82.8% in the October 2022 reporting period.

The all-occupancy rate for senior housing for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased to 82.8% in the October 2022 reporting period, up 0.6 percentage point (pps) from the September 2022 reporting period on three-month rolling basis, according to intra-quarterly NIC MAP® data, released by NIC MAP Vision. From its pandemic record low of 77.9% in June 2021, senior housing all-occupancy increased by 4.9pps and is now more than halfway in the road to recovery, with a gap of 4.4pps from the pre-pandemic March 2020 level of 87.2%.

At 85.0%, the all-occupancy rate for majority independent living (IL) properties for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased 0.3pps from September 2022 but remained 4.6pps below March 2020 levels. For majority assisted living properties (AL), the all-occupancy rate for the NIC MAP Primary Markets was up 0.7pps to 80.4% from September 2022 but still 4.2pps below March 2020 levels. Occupancy for AL continued to recover relatively fast compared with IL despite the relatively large inventory growth since the onset of the pandemic, but it’s notable that AL also fell further from peak to trough. From its pandemic-related low, all-occupancy for AL increased by 6.3pps, nearly 3pps more than IL (up 3.4pps since March 2021).

The pace of year-over-year inventory growth for both IL and AL continued to be relatively slow compared with pre-pandemic levels. The inventory of majority independent living properties for the NIC MAP Primary Markets increased by 1.1% or 3,887 units from year-earlier levels in the October 2022 reporting period. This was the smallest annual growth since 2015. Assisted living inventory increased by 2.0% over this same period.

All-occupancy rates increased or remained stable in 24 of the 31 Primary Markets for IL in the October 2022 reporting period compared with September 2022. At 93.5%, Boston’s occupancy increased by 0.7pps from September 2022 and ranked the highest among the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets. Boston recovered the 6.1pps lost during the height of the pandemic and is the third independent living primary market, on average, to return/exceed pre-pandemic March 2020 levels along with San Antonio and Las Vegas. Houston IL occupancy improved by 2pps from September 2022, the largest gain among the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets, but at 79.1%, it is still ranked at the bottom of the pack. In fact, Houston is the only IL primary market with an average occupancy rate below 80%.

All-occupancy rates rose or remained stable in 30 of the 31 Primary Markets for assisted living in October 2022 compared with September 2022. Tampa had the highest occupancy rate for AL among the 31 Primary Markets at 86.3% (up 0.9pps from October 2022 and is now 0.8pps below March 2020 levels). The Washington, D,C, occupancy rate at 75.2% in October 2022, is up 0.1pps from September 2022. Washington had the lowest occupancy rate for AL among the 31 Primary Markets.

Interestingly, the metropolitan markets at the bottom of the pack in occupancy rankings, e.g., Houston – IL and Washington, DC – AL had a relatively large year-over-year inventory growth compared with markets ranked first among the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets, e.g., Boston – IL and Tampa – AL. To learn more about the inventory growth from year-earlier levels across these select NIC MAP metropolitan markets, download the NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot.
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Keep track of the most timely and comprehensive review of the sector’s market fundamentals and trends. The NIC Intra-Quarterly Snapshot monthly publication, available for complimentary download on our website, continues to provide a powerful and closely watched means to stay ahead of industry trends, even as senior housing markets sustain a fast pace of evolution and adaptation, amidst an apparent recovery. 

The November 2022 Intra-Quarterly Snapshot report will be released on nic.org on Thursday, December 10, 2022, at 5:00pm.

Interested in learning more about NIC MAP Intra-Quarterly data? To learn more about NIC MAP Vision data, schedule a meeting with a product expert today.