The NIC Board of Directors is comprised of many of the brightest minds in the industry, representing leading operators, capital partners, and advisors in the senior housing and care sector. As we wrap up 2024 and look ahead to 2025, we asked our board members to share their thoughts on the general tone of the industry and what they anticipate unfolding in the year ahead. While the perspectives vary, as they each represent different aspects of the industry and various organizations, there was a general optimistic tone to their outlook for the year ahead.

That optimistic tone is coupled with unknowns on topics such as the capital pressures we’ve seen in recent years, stymied development activity, and affordability challenges for many older adults. Read below for specific insights from a sampling of NIC Board members.

• “I see an increased eagerness to shine a light on seniors and senior living beyond our industry that will present an amazing opportunity for us as an organization to have our voice reach new investors and attendees. I also see an increased need for us to start making real progress as an industry toward serving the Baby Boomers and am hopeful the economic dynamics will align to allow it to happen.”

• “As the senior housing industry enters 2025, I feel it is with cautious optimism, driven by resilience, collaboration, and a renewed focus on innovation. As we navigate the economic challenges and demographic shifts, I’m confident our collective efforts will enhance care, affordability, and the well-being of our teams and residents. Together, we have the opportunity to shape a vibrant future for older adults and their families.”

• “Operational optimism and general industry sentiment is offsetting the impact of 40bps+ of Treasury movement post-election. We’re uniquely positioned and the only asset type that hasn’t been repriced as a function of large treasury movement given our operating fundamentals are so strong. Said another way, the institutional investment community’s awareness of senior housing’s trendline has added so much liquidity to the sector over the past 3-4 months, it’s been able to offset the largest permanent rate fluctuation we’ve seen in years when every other asset class has been repriced by 2-5%.”

• “Guarded optimism. Because for those who have been in the industry, we all know and have experienced up/down cycles, just never this deep and long. The good news is, looking towards 2025, the tailwinds should overcome the headwinds. Bad news is, with development down, will operators have enough incentive for them to both continue and care, or will they divert their attention towards ancillary businesses and away from their day jobs?” 

• “As we close out 2024 and look to 2025, the industry will likely continue to operate with guarded optimism, though it will take time before anyone fully lets their guard down. Demand is increasing, but senior housing operators must remain proactive—innovating service delivery and effectively communicating their value propositions. Now is not the time to rest or rely on past operating models.”

• “Continued favorable operating fundamentals with outsized EBITDARM growth. Factors driving this growth include higher bottom line flow through as portfolios approach occupancy stabilization, improving demand fundamentals, and limited new deliveries.  On the flip side, stickier than anticipated interest rates may further delay meaningful movement in cap rates, at least through the first half of 2025.”

• “Overall, I see the senior housing industry continuing its occupancy growth in 2025. A combination of target demographic trends, strong demand, and suppressed new supply will provide a continued tailwind for the industry in the new year and for years to come.”

We will continue to share insights into NIC’s 2025 outlook. Look for a special edition of the NIC Insider newsletter in early January where we’ll share our thoughts on the year ahead for the senior housing and care sector.

A Conversation with Jared and Barry Carr

This article is the seventh in a series showcasing parent/child dynamics across the senior housing and care industry. My conversation with father and son duo, Barry Carr, Chairman and Co-founder, Ignite Medical Resorts and Jared Carr, President of Ignite Medical Resorts, explores how our industry has become a family affair.

Tell us about yourself and your work.

Barry Carr: In 1985 I started working for my father-in-law and his partner, who had three buildings in Chicago. My wife’s father was a silent-type partner who didn’t have a traditional education. He handled a lot of the maintenance duties while his partner ran the business. At the time, I was doing marketing for a big ad agency in Chicago. When one of their administrators quit, they asked me to come on as an assistant administrator. In 1989, they sold the company, and the new ownership didn’t have growth opportunities.

After about a year, my father-in-law’s old partner called me and asked if I wanted to operate a building he was planning to buy. It was 1991 when I went in as a partner and had my first ownership experience. In 1994, my partner asked me if we wanted to buy the old company back. My father-in-law went in a different direction, but I was all in. We grew NuCare into a large company and I eventually became the CEO. I bought my own building, Avanti, in 2001 and brought that into the fold. In 2012, I left and ran the one building on my own.

We now have 23 communities, all short-term rehab, straight down the center of the U.S. (Texas, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, and Oklahoma).

Jared Carr: Growing up around my father and grandfather in the industry didn’t sway my ambitions to do other things, but I really wasn’t sure what I wanted to do. For most of my life I pushed back on the idea of being in the industry because it’s time consuming and there are no holidays off. It’s not like a bank where nothing is going to happen at 11:00 at night or on Christmas Day.

During summer breaks at Indiana University, I worked in various facilities and started to look at health administration programs. It clicked once I enrolled in those classes. I was familiar with a lot of the regulations and standards of practice, which gave me confidence about heading in the same direction as my dad. Looking back, I understood it was a difficult business to be around, but I appreciated that it’s what enabled my happy childhood and gave us a fruitful life. Additionally, I was drawn to the fact that the industry is relatively recession proof and constantly growing. Ultimately, it made a lot of sense for me.

Once I decided on the path, I went all in majoring in health administration. My dad advised me not to work with him off the bat. At the time I was scared and resisted, but in hindsight it was fantastic advice. I’m really glad I got the opportunity to work for someone else and learn both what to do and what not to do. I ended up working at three of Symphony’s facilities. That was an important experience not only because I couldn’t run to daddy, but also because you get these buildings where you see people with significant, basic life challenges and different workplace norms. Then you come to buildings that we operate which are “resorts” and you get a family whose greatest concern is about matters that may seem more trivial like fresh linens or PT scheduling. It puts things in perspective.

Next, I did administration at Avanti as Ignite was forming. I’ve recently taken over as president to help run day-to-day activities while my dad and our co-founder Tim focus on the bigger picture.

Barry Carr: We made very clear from the start that Jared would report to Tim and not me. Tim helped mold him into what he needed for the company. I stood back and acted as the consiglieri, if you will.

How do you keep separation between church and state?

Barry Carr: When Jared was young, we’d go out for dinner, and I’d have to leave the table to take work calls. Recently, we were out to dinner and his phone rang. Next thing you know, the tables have turned and I’m looking at him out of the restaurant window taking a work call. That was a turning point. When we’re with the rest of the family, we try to avoid industry talk.

Jared Carr: Growing up, I never wanted Thanksgiving to be dominated by my father and grandfather talking about their building. It was frustrating as a little kid. Now that I’m older, I have that perspective and try to stay away from work topics when we’re in a group setting.

What advice do you have for the next generation or those thinking about joining the industry?

Barry Carr: It’s a great, never-boring field to be in. You can’t imagine what each new day will bring. Originally, I was trained to be an accountant, and I would think ‘I know what I’m going to be doing April 1, ten years from now.’ That’s not the case in this business.

It’s important to be humble. You need to be a strong leader and above it, but you also have to be able to get right down into it. That’s being able to speak in front of 200 staff members and being able to mop the floor. You need to have a “go with the flow” personality.

I always told Jared to be the first one there in the morning and the last one to leave at night. You have to earn respect especially when your last name is the same as the owner.

What advice do you have for the generation before us?

Jared Carr: Embrace change. This doesn’t go for my dad because he’s really good with change, but a lot of others say: ‘well this has been successful in the past.’ Be patient with the next generation who may decide they want to do things differently. 

Anything more to share?

Barry Carr: I will add—you have to want to do this. If you just want to make money, do something else, but if you care about people and want to be impactful in their lives this is a rewarding industry to be in.

Data from the recently released 3Q 2024 NIC MAP Vision Actual Rates Report show that: 

Independent living (IL) properties experienced a strong rebound in year-over-year growth across all rate types.

In the third quarter of 2024, independent living (IL) properties experienced a strong rebound in year-over-year growth across all rate types, following a period of deceleration in prior quarters. Meanwhile, assisted living (AL) properties showed steadier, more moderate growth, with some rate categories experiencing slight declines.         

– Independent living properties achieved a new time series high in September 2024, with year-over-year growth in initial rates reaching 12.2%. This marks a sharp rebound from the slight decline (-0.3%) recorded in June 2024. Similarly, both in-place rates and asking rates also measured a robust 9.8% and 8.9% growth from year-earlier levels, respectively.

– Assisted living properties experienced steadier rate growth patterns. Initial rates grew modestly by 3.7% year-over-year in September 2024, up from 2.4% in June 2024. Asking rates saw a slight decline in year-over-year growth, slipping to 6.1% in September from 6.4% in June, while in-place rates held steady at 5.4%. However, the pace of growth across all assisted living rate types remained below their year-earlier levels.

Note that property designations refer to majority property type, i.e., independent living properties are properties where independent living units comprise the largest share of inventory.

Discounting from asking rates hit a time series high for assisted living (AL) properties, while independent living (IL) properties experienced a notable decline in discounting.

– Average initial rates for independent living properties were 7.4% ($319) below asking rates in September 2024, the smallest discount since February 2023. This equates to a 0.9-month discount on an annualized basis, a notable decline from the 1.9-month discount recorded in June 2024.

– Assisted living properties saw a slight increase in the discount between initial rates and asking rates in the third quarter of 2024. In July 2024, average initial rates were 10.6% ($703) below asking rates, equivalent to a 1.3-month discount on an annualized basis, the highest discount since at least 2019.

Move-ins exceeded move-outs in the third quarter of 2024 for both independent living (IL) and assisted living (AL) properties.

– The percentage of move-ins for independent living properties stood at 2.4% in September 2024, down slightly from 2.9% in June 2024.

– For assisted living properties, the percentage of move-ins remained strong at 3.4% in July 2024, 3.3% in August, and 3.1% in September 2024.

Additional key takeaways are available to NIC MAP Vision subscribers in the full report.   

About the Report   

The NIC MAP Vision Seniors Housing Actual Rates Report provides aggregate national data from approximately 300,000 units within more than 2,700 properties across the U.S. operated by 35 to 40 senior housing providers. The operators included in the current sample tend to be larger, professionally managed, and investment-grade operators as a requirement for participation is restricted to operators who manage 5 or more properties. Visit NIC MAP Vision’s website for more information.  

NIC Analytics released the 1H 2024 NIC Lending Trends Report. This complimentary report includes data trends over eight years for senior housing and nursing care construction loans, mini-perm/bridge loans, permanent loans, and delinquencies from 3Q 2016 through 2Q 2024. The report is based on survey contributions from 17 participating lenders.

Survey Comments from the Field:

The survey not only gathered data for inclusion in this report, but also commentary on what is driving lending trends. As noted by contributors, rising interest rates, driven by an increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, led to higher borrowing costs and debt-service coverage constraints. As traditional banks and finance companies tightened credit availability, lenders focused on stronger borrowers, loans with lower loan-to-value ratios, and robust sponsor profiles. These conditions, coupled with reduced transaction-related lending, limited deal flow in the first half of 2024. Despite this, the pace of loan applications and approvals picked up in 2Q24, hinting at cautious optimism for the second half of 2024 and beyond.

New permanent loan volume closed for senior housing rebounded to its highest level since 2020.

Despite high borrowing costs and limited deal flow early in the year, loan application and approval activity gained momentum in 2Q24, signaling cautious optimism for the permanent lending market.

New permanent loan volumes for senior housing increased by over 200% from 1Q24, surpassing $2 billion. This growth reflects a rebound in lending activity with levels exceeding those observed at any point since 2020. Loan volumes for nursing care also rose by nearly 60% in 2Q24. This growth reflects a more measured and gradual recovery for the nursing care sector amid improved Medicaid reimbursement rates and occupancy trends.

This shift highlights renewed confidence in long-term investments, even as lenders navigate the challenges of a higher interest rate environment.

New mini-perm/bridge loan volume activity stayed low due to high borrowing costs and lender caution.

New mini-perm and bridge loan volumes remained low for both senior housing and nursing care in the first half of 2024, reflecting continued caution among lenders. High borrowing costs, driven by the Fed’s target rate of 5.25-5.50%, impacted short-term lending. This environment made bridge loans less attractive to buyers and more difficult for lenders to underwrite.

Lenders primarily focused on selective deals with existing borrowers and properties demonstrating strong performance metrics. Despite an increase in requests for bridge financing, the actual deal flow was limited, reflecting the overall tightening of credit availability. The challenging conditions highlighted a cautious approach among lenders navigating high-interest rate environments while prioritizing stronger credit profiles.

New construction loan volume for senior housing showed slight improvement but stayed below norms.

Construction loan activity for senior housing showed slight improvement in the first half of 2024 but remained well below historical standards. While there has been a modest uptick in lending, the number of senior housing units under construction continued to hover near its lowest levels since 2015, reflecting ongoing caution among lenders and developers. Construction starts, which have been weak in 2024, have yet to recover meaningfully.

In contrast, construction lending for nursing care remained virtually nonexistent, with no activity in the first half of 2024 among contributing lenders. The high cost of borrowing and uncertainties surrounding the sector’s operational challenges have further constrained new development. Overall, construction lending trends highlight a slow recovery in senior housing and a continued lack of momentum in nursing care.

Total delinquent loans for senior housing continued to decline, while nursing care delinquencies increased.

Delinquency rates for senior housing loans appear to have peaked last year and continued to improve in 2024, declining for the third consecutive quarter. As of the first half of 2024, delinquencies represented 3.9% of total loans, down from the peak of 4.4% in late 2023. However, it is worth noting that loans in forbearance are included in the delinquent loan data for some debt providers, slightly influencing these figures.

In contrast, delinquency rates for nursing care loans have continued rising for three consecutive quarters, reaching 2.7% in 2024, up from the time series low of 0.6% in late 2023. This increase highlights ongoing operational challenges in the nursing care sector. Additionally, foreclosures reported in 1H 2024 totaled $51.8 million for senior housing and $43.2 million for nursing care, indicating the continued pressures facing some borrowers in both sectors.

Download the complimentary 1H 2024 NIC Lending Trends Report for full details on these and other trends in senior housing and skilled nursing lending. 

Note: This data is not to be interpreted as a census of all senior housing and skilled nursing lending activity in the U.S. but rather reflect lending activity from participants included in the survey sample only. 

The 2H 2024 NIC Lending Trends Report is scheduled for release in May 2025.

Interested in participating? The NIC Lending Trends Report helps NIC Analytics deliver on NIC’s mission to enable access and choice by further enhancing transparency of capital market trends in the senior housing and care sectors. We very much appreciate our data contributors. This report would not be possible without them. 

If you would like to participate and contribute your data to future lending trends surveys, please contact us at analytics@nic.org. As a courtesy for providing data, data contributors receive this report early before publication on the website. The information provided as part of the survey will be kept strictly confidential. Individual answers will be combined with all other responses. Data acquired from this survey will only be reported in the aggregate, and therefore, the resulting aggregated data will not be attributed to you or your company upon distribution. 

The NIC Spring Conference is proud to showcase an incredible lineup of women speakers shaping the future of senior housing and care. From transformative innovators to thought leaders on the main stage, this year’s program highlights the brilliant minds and compassionate hearts driving meaningful change in our industry.

Join us in celebrating these remarkable women as we spotlight their expertise, their stories, and their impact. Let their voices inspire us to envision a brighter future for aging adults everywhere.

Innovation Lab Speakers: Pioneers of Progress

The Innovation Lab is a space where bold ideas meet actionable insights, and this year’s female speakers are at the forefront of change:

• Suzanne Koenig: Providing skills in operations improvement, staff development and quality assurance.

• Julie Simpkins: New and strategic perspectives on growth initiatives and marketing in the service-enriched housing sector.

• Edie Smith: Serving the age-qualified housing sector for nearly 30 years.

• Terry Spitznagel: Responsible for all UCH senior living and affordable housing operations, as well as developing new business lines.

• Eva Arant: Fostering a thriving organizational culture and delivering exceptional care.

• Erin Hennessy: Two decades of success building disruptive innovations.

• Vassar Byrd: Envisioning new and innovative ways to serve older adults.

Main Stage Speakers: Voices of Vision and Leadership

This year’s main stage is packed with powerhouse women driving conversations around health, housing, and equity:

• Astha Chopra: Her commitment to wellness and preventive care is inspired by her grandfather’s legacy.

• Catherine Field: Expanding Humana’s value-based provider relationships.

• Jessica Johnson: Providing critical banking services to senior housing and skilled nursing nationwide.

• Dr. Katy Lanz: Two decades of success building disruptive innovations.

• Lynne Katzmann: 20 properties in four states, more than 1200 employees, and $65 million in revenues.

• Lisa McCracken: Driving research with nationally recognized partners to help the next generation of senior housing and care leaders.

• Kristi Oliver: Driving operational excellence and financial performance.

• Dr. Catherine O’Brien: Sparking innovation and advancing the senor living and aging services industry.

• Laurie Schultz: Balancing real estate investments with forward thinking healthcare trends.

• Jennifer Wong: Sourcing and managing AEW’s healthcare investments.

• Anne Tumlinson: Advising the nation’s top public and private leaders in healthcare.

• Colleen Blumenthal: Appraising and consulting for seniors housing and care properties for 30 years.

• Stephanie Boreale: Building clinical operations and innovative strategies for whole person wellness.

The 2025 NIC Spring Conference is your opportunity to learn from these extraordinary women and more. Together, we’ll redefine what’s possible in senior housing and care. Explore the full program here and register now.