The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 1.8 million in July and that the unemployment rate fell to 10.2%. This suggests that the employment recovery from the unprecedented COVID-related drop in March and April continues to reverse course, although the pace of recovery appears to be slowing. The 1.8 million job gain in July was less than the increases of 4.8 million in June and 2.7 million in May. Combined, 9.3 million jobs were generated in May, June and July, recouping some of the 22.2 million jobs lost in March and April. Nevertheless, the July level of employment was lower than its February level by 12.9 million positions or by 8.4%.

While the July improvement is welcome news, the labor market continues to be strained and the recent spike in the virus across many states could hamper further gains. Indeed, some states are backtracking plans to reopen as coronavirus infections are rising again.

The largest July job increases occurred in the leisure and hospitality sectors, which added 592,000 jobs. This accounted for about one-third of the job gains. Health care added 126,000 jobs in July but is still down by 797,000 jobs since February. July job gains in health care occurred in offices of dentists and physicians, hospitals, and home health care services. Job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-28,000).  

The July unemployment rate of 10.2% was down 0.9 percentage point from June but is still quite elevated by historic standards and significantly higher than the 50-year low of 3.5% in February. The number of unemployed persons fell by 1.4 million to 16.3 million. Despite this decline, total unemployed persons are still 10.6 million more than in February.

Among major worker groups, the unemployment rate fell in July for adult men to 9.4%, adult women to 10.5% and teenagers to 19.3%. Among the unemployed, those who were jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 364,000 to 3.2 million in July and the number of persons jobless 15 to 26 weeks rose by 4.6 million to 6.5 million.

The underemployment rate or the U-6 jobless rate fell to 16.5% in July from 18.0% in June. This figure includes those who have quit looking for a job because they are discouraged about their prospects and people working part-time but desiring a full work week. In the previous 2008/2009 recession, this rate peaked at 17.2%.  

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 26,000 from a gain of 2.699 million to 2.725 million and the change for June was revised own by 9,000 from 4.800 million to 4.791 million. Combined, 17,000 jobs were added to the original estimates. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Market expectations had been for a gain of 1.480 million.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by $0.07 in July to $29.39, a gain of 4.8% from a year earlier.  

The labor force participation rate, which is a measure of the share of working age people who are employed or looking for work was little changed in July from June at 61.4%.  

Separately, the Department of Labor reported yesterday that the number of new applications for jobless benefits fell to the lowest level since March, though remained historically high at 1.2 million new applications.

A NIC report developed to provide timely insights from owners and C-suite operators and executives on the pulse of seniors housing and skilled nursing sectors

NIC’s Executive Survey of operators in seniors housing and skilled nursing is designed to deliver transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space at a time when market conditions are rapidly changing—providing both capital providers and capital seekers with data as to how COVID-19 is impacting the space, helping leaders make informed decisions.

This Wave 10 survey sample includes responses collected July 20-August 2, 2020 from owners and executives of 73 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation. Detailed reports for each “wave” of the survey can be found on the NIC COVID-19 Resource Center webpage under Executive Survey Insights.

Wave 10 Summary of Insights and Findings

The Wave 10 survey revealed a slight deterioration in the pace of move-ins, specifically in the independent living and memory care segments, resulting in downward changes in occupancy rates month-over-month and week-over-week for these care segments—likely because of an increase in COVID-19 cases in certain areas of the country. However, the assisted living and nursing care segments continued to improve in Wave 10 in terms of the market fundamentals, with both segments seeing the highest shares of organizations reporting an acceleration in move-ins and upward movement in occupancy rate changes since the survey began. The Wave 9 survey results (June 22-July 5, 2020) showed that larger shares of organizations reported month-over-month and week-over-week improvements in occupancy rates than in all prior waves of the survey. This was likely due to pent-up demand from resident/family members and the easing of COVID-19 related move-in restrictions.

• In Wave 10 of the survey, 43% of organizations with nursing care beds and 39% of organizations with assisted living units noted a continuing upward trend in move-ins in the past 30-days—the highest shares achieved by these segments in the survey time series. However, fewer organizations with independent living and memory care units reported an acceleration in move-ins than in Wave 9 of the survey.
• In each of the past four waves of the survey, roughly two-thirds to three-quarters of organizations cited increased resident demand (many due to pre-COVID-19 planned move-ins resuming) as a reason for acceleration in move-ins. Additionally, organizations with any nursing care beds cited hospital placement more frequently than in the prior three waves of the survey. Other reasons cited for an acceleration in move-ins included properties being re-opened for tours, current and new residents feeling more comfortable about moving-in, and seniors in the lead pipelines ready to move-in.
• Regarding reasons for a deceleration in move-ins, most organizations continued to cite a slowdown in leads conversions/sales, while considerably more in Wave 10 than in Wave 9 cited resident or family member concerns (60% in Wave 10 vs. 38% in Wave 9), presumably due to the increase of COVID-19 cases in many areas of the country since June and July.
• At this point in the pandemic, most organizations are easing move-in restrictions, but others are increasing move-in restrictions. About half of organizations with more than one property in Wave 10 of the survey are easing move in restrictions in some or all geographies (53%), while about one in five are increasing move-in restrictions in some or all geographies (21%). Among single-site organizations, most (42%) are easing move-in restrictions, while about a quarter (26%) are increasing move-in restrictions at this time.
• In Wave 10 of the survey, roughly two-thirds of organizations (62% to 67%) note no change in the pace of move-outs in the past 30-days across all four care segments, while about one quarter (23% to 27%) report an acceleration in move-outs. Primary reasons for move-outs included deaths and residents moving to higher levels of care. Compared to the Wave 9 survey, the shares of organizations reporting an acceleration in the pace of move-outs for the independent living and memory care segments increased in Wave 10 survey, while the assisted living and nursing care segments remained relatively unchanged.
• The nursing care segment continued to have the largest shares of organizations with increasing occupancy rates. In Wave 10, approximately half (53%) reported an upward change in month-over-month occupancy—the highest in the survey time series for the nursing care segment—likely a result of more hospitals around the country resuming greater amounts of elective surgeries that require post-acute care rehabilitation, and/or seniors housing residents moving to higher levels of care.
• As a result of the slight pullback in move-in rates for the independent living and memory care segments, the Wave 10 survey shows a slight decline in the shares of organizations reporting increasing occupancy from a week prior. Slightly more organizations with assisted living units report an increase in week-over-week occupancy, while slightly more organizations with nursing care report a decrease.
• As of Wave 10, about two-thirds of organizations report they are not currently offering rent concessions to attract new residents. Similarly, 70% indicate they do not have a backlog of new residents waiting to move in.
• Regarding the availability of PPE and COVID-19 testing kits, and the time it takes to receive test results back, more than one-quarter of organizations (29%) report that it is still very difficult to obtain enough COVID-19 testing kits in most markets, and 17% report difficulty accessing PPE—up from Wave 9 but similar to Wave 8.
• Two-thirds of organizations reported that COVID-19 test results for staff, residents or prospective residents are typically available in 3-5 days (66%). However, one in five say it is taking 7 or more days to receive results (21%).
• More respondents in the Wave 10 survey (July 20-August 2, 2020) compared to the Wave 3 survey (April 13-19, 2020) expect an increase in their development pipelines going forward (30% vs. 15%).
• Many respondents in Wave 10 offered comments about how their organizations are supporting staff as the pandemic emergency continues for employees and their families, with most citing pay incentives. Additionally, more are supporting staff with flexible work hours, but fewer are currently offering additional paid sick leave. Organizations offering overtime hours to mitigate labor shortages has remained steady at 85% and 84% from Wave 10 compared to Wave 3. However, slightly more report tapping agency or temp staff (42% vs. 36%) to fill staffing vacancies.

Wave 10 Survey Demographics

• Responses were collected July 20-August 2, 2020 from owners and executives of 73 seniors housing and skilled nursing operators from across the nation.
• Roughly half of respondents are exclusively for-profit providers (52%), more than one-third (39%) are exclusively nonprofit providers, and 9% operate both for-profit and nonprofit seniors housing and care organizations.
• Owner/operators with 1 to 10 properties comprise 77% of the sample. Operators with 11 to 25 properties make up 10% while operators with 26 properties or more make up 13% of the sample.
• Many respondents in the sample report operating combinations of property types. Across their entire portfolios of properties, 73% of the organizations operate seniors housing properties (IL, AL, MC), 39% operate nursing care properties, and 34% operate CCRCs (aka Life Plan Communities).

Key Survey Results

Pace of Move-Ins and Move-Outs

Respondents were asked: “Considering my organization’s entire portfolio of properties, overall, the pace of move-ins and move-outs by care segment in the past 30-days has…”

• • The shares of organizations reporting deceleration in move-ins—across each of the care segments—ticked up slightly between Wave 9 and Wave 10 of the survey. In Wave 10 of the survey, between 21% and 30% of organizations with independent living, assisted living and/or memory care segments, and 38% of organizations with nursing care beds indicated that the pace of move-ins decelerated in the past 30-days. Comparatively in Wave 9, between 16% and 26% of organizations with independent living, assisted living and memory care segments and 33% of organizations with nursing care beds reported a deceleration in move-ins.
  • Conversely in Wave 10, between 31% and 43% of organizations reporting on their independent living, assisted living, memory care, and nursing care segments indicated that the pace of move-ins accelerated in the past 30-days, compared to between 36% and 42% respectively in Wave 9.
  • While the shares of organizations with independent living units reporting an acceleration in move-ins in the past 30-days retreated slightly, the assisted living and nursing care segments continued to increase shares to their highest levels in the survey time series (39% and 43%, respectively).

Reasons for Acceleration/Deceleration in Move-Ins

Respondents were asked: “The acceleration/deceleration in move-ins is due to…”

• • In Wave 10 of the survey—hospital placement was cited most frequently as a reason for an acceleration in move-ins in the past 30-days (41%) among organizations with any nursing care beds—significantly higher than in the prior three waves of the survey.
  • In each of the past four waves of the survey, roughly two-thirds to three-quarters of organizations cited increased resident demand (many due to pre-COVID-19 planned move-ins resuming) as a reason for the acceleration in move-ins.

• • • Regarding reasons for a deceleration in move-ins, most organizations continued to cite a slowdown in leads conversions/sales, while considerably more in Wave 10 than in Wave 9 cited resident or family member concerns (60% vs. 38%), presumably due to new spikes of COVID-19 cases in many areas of the country.

Organizations Easing or Increasing Move-In Restrictions

Respondents were asked: “At this point in the pandemic, my organization is…”

• • Given the resurgence of COVID-19 cases across the country in June and July, organizations with more than one-property were asked to describe whether they were easing or increasing move-in restrictions in some or all geographies. In Wave 10 of the survey, while roughly half (53%) were easing move in restrictions in some or all geographies, about one in five organizations (21%) were increasing move-in restrictions in some or all geographies.
  • Among single-site organizations, most (42%) are easing move-in restrictions at this time, while about a quarter (26%) are increasing move-in restrictions.

Organizations Currently Offering Rent Concessions to Attract New Residents and Organizations Experiencing a Backlog of Residents Waiting to Move-In

Respondents were asked: “My organization is currently offering rent concessions to attract new residents,” and “My organization is experiencing a backlog of residents waiting to move-in”

• • As of Wave 10, about one-third of organizations report they are currently offering rent concessions to attract new residents and/or have a waitlist of new residents waiting to move-in.

Move-Outs

• • • Roughly two-thirds of organizations (62% to 67%) in Wave 10 of the survey note no change in the pace of move-outs in the past 30-days across all four care segments, while about one quarter (23% to 27%) report an acceleration in move-outs.
    • Compared to the Wave 9 survey, the shares of organizations reporting an acceleration in the pace of move-outs for the independent living and memory care segments increased in the Wave 10 survey, while the assisted living and nursing care segments remained relatively unchanged.
• 

Change in Occupancy by Care Segment

Respondents were asked: “Considering the entire portfolio of properties, overall, my organization’s occupancy rates by care segment are… (Most Recent Occupancy, Occupancy One Month Ago, Occupancy One Week Ago, Percent 0-100)”

• • In Wave 9, the largest shares of survey respondents reported occupancy improvement across all care segments since the survey began. However, in Wave 10, more organizations with independent living and memory care units note a month-over-month decline in occupancy, while organizations with assisted living report a month-over-month increase in occupancy—the highest in the survey time series (March 24 to August 2, 2020).
  • The nursing care segment continued to have the largest shares of organizations with increasing month-over-month occupancy. In Wave 10, approximately half (53%) reported an upward change in occupancy from the month prior (also the highest in the survey time series for the nursing care segment).

• • • Regarding the change in occupancy from one week ago—while each of the care segments in the Wave 9 survey showed the smallest shares of organizations reporting occupancy declines since the survey began—the Wave 10 survey shows a slight decline in the shares of organizations reporting increasing occupancy from a week prior for the independent living, memory care, and nursing care segments. Slightly more organizations with assisted living units report an increase in week-over-week occupancy.

Improvement in Access to PPE and COVID-19 Testing Kits

Respondents were asked: “Considering access to PPE (personal protective equipment) and COVID-19 testing kits, my organization has experienced that access has improved… Very little, it is still difficult to obtain enough PPE/testing kits in most markets/Somewhat, in some markets it is easier to obtain PPE/testing kits than in others/Considerably, we typically have no difficulty obtaining PPE/testing kits, regardless of market”

• • In the Wave 10 survey (late July to early August), similar to Wave 8 (late May to early June), more than one-quarter of organizations (29%) report that it is still very difficult to obtain enough COVID-19 testing kits in most markets, and 17% report difficulty accessing PPE.

Time Frames for Receiving Back COVID-19 Test Results

Respondents were asked: “Regarding COVID-19 test results (either for staff, residents or prospective residents) results typically come back within…”

• • • Two-thirds of organizations reported that COVID-19 test results for staff, residents or prospective residents are typically available in 3-5 days. However, one in five say it is taking 7 or more days to receive results.

Supporting Property Staff

Respondents were asked: “My organization is supporting property staff who may be experiencing challenges by providing… (Choose all that apply)” Note: this question has not been asked since Wave 3.

• • More organizations in Wave 10 (July 20-August 2) than earlier in the pandemic in Wave 3 (April 13-April 19) report offering staff flexible work hours, while fewer report offering additional paid sick leave.

• • • With regard to mitigating labor shortages, the proportion of organizations offering overtime hours has remained steady at 85% and 84% (Wave 10 compared to Wave 3, respectively). However, slightly more report tapping agency or temp staff to fill staffing vacancies (42% vs. 36%). Many are supporting staff with pay incentives.

Development Pipeline Considerations

Respondents were asked: “My organization’s projected development pipeline going forward is expected to… (Choose all that apply)” Note: this question has not been asked since Wave 3.

• • More respondents in the Wave 10 survey (July 20-August 2, 2020) compared to the Wave 3 survey (April 13-19, 2020) expect an increase in their development pipelines going forward (30% vs. 15%).

NIC wishes to thank survey respondents for their valuable input and continuing support for this effort to bring clarity and transparency into market fundamentals in the seniors housing and care space at a time where trends are rapidly changing. NIC also thanks both ASHA and Argentum for their support in encouraging participation in the Executive Survey Insights: COVID-19 survey. The results of our joint efforts to provide timely and informative data to the market in this challenging time have been significant and noteworthy. The Executive Survey Insights: COVID-19 survey is now open. To respond to the survey, please click here.

If you are an owner or C-suite executive of seniors housing and care properties and have not received an email invitation but would like to participate in the upcoming Executive Survey: Market Fundamentals (which will start again on Monday, August 17), please send a message to insight@nic.org to be added to the email distribution list.

Just two days ahead of the NBA season’s restart in Orlando, Florida, NIC hosted it’s ninth “Leadership Huddle” webinar to discuss the professional sports league’s efforts to contain the virus, and gain insight on the latest developments in testing, wearables, and protocols. Titled “From Pro Sports to Senior Care: Innovations in Testing, Tech, and Protection,” the event was intended to share lessons and experiences earned fighting COVID-19 in other industries with seniors housing and care providers and investors.

While very different in terms of scope, demographics, access to resources, and scale, the NBA has been faced with some of the same challenges that senior living operators face today. Working with experts across the country, including Testing for America, a “nonprofit established by leading scientists, academics, and entrepreneurs,” the NBA is showing significant improvements in curtailing the spread of the virus amongst its players and staff, despite putting them in close proximity to train and play together in a ‘bubble’ located in Orlando, Florida.

As NIC CEO Brian Jurutka explained in his opening remarks, “We are now approaching the fifth month since the coronavirus was declared a pandemic. The country has moved from the crisis response phase, where we pulled back from business as usual, to trying to resume activities that were shut down as we await developments in vaccines and treatments for the virus.” As different sectors approach reopening, there is the potential to share critical lessons, innovations, and experiences across industries.

Sri Kosaraju, Governing Council, Testing for America, expressed the importance of testing, saying, “all of you are obviously dealing with this every single day, and it’s critically important to what you do, and the intent of this, from our perspective, is for it to be a resource, and to be helpful to you in this hour.” Testing for America is a nonprofit “established by leading academics, engineers, and entrepreneurs to solve the COVID-19 testing crisis.” Their volunteer members include leading experts and industry leaders in the science of testing.

The bubble

Kosaraju, who stepped down as president of global healthcare company Penumbra (NYSE: PEN) to focus his efforts on Testing for America, has been working closely with fellow panelist Robby Sikka and the NBA for months. Robby Sikka, an anesthesiologist by training, is the founder and CEO of Sports Medicine Analytics Research Team (SMART), an organization that has assisted numerous NBA, NFL, MLB and NHL clubs with injury data, return to play planning, and player evaluation and development. He is VP of Basketball Performance for The Minnesota Timberwolves, and has been working more broadly with the NBA to develop protocols to protect players and staff from infection as they plan to reopen their season. He described what he calls the NBA’s “bubble and mini-bubble” approach to preventing the spread of COVID-19, which he said could be used within seniors housing and care communities.

The NBA’s approach is to have each team separated into its own mini-bubble within a larger bubble, so that they can train and play together, whilst retaining distancing and protocols designed both to protect from outside, and from bubble to bubble. Sikka said it has been well-documented that the league “went from a 10% positivity rate in the first week amongst players to 0% in the last two weeks. And the reason is, they had mini-bubbles.”

Sikka described a number of approaches that have helped achieve that result. Between June 23 and July 7 the NBA tested every other day. “Your testing cadence really matters because you may not have testing every day. You may also have delays.” When test results are delayed, he assumes there are positives and acts accordingly. “We’re seeing anecdotally its not just the games that are putting players at risk, but group activities. We’re seeing it in baseball and soccer… there are too many things where sharing air in small, confined spaces are leading to outbreaks.” He discussed travel on aircraft and busses, and other instances of close confinement causing outbreaks.

The NBA’s system is a phased approach to allowing players to interact, beginning with social distancing protocols, then increasing levels of testing as teams allowed individual workouts, whittling down the pool of uninfected players until there was a high assurance that it was safe to practice and play in groups. With a COVID-free group, the NBA added rapid testing to their protocol. Today, as the teams prepare to play each other, each team’s mini-bubble practices strict protocols, minimizing exposure, and decreasing the chance of spread. Sikka pointed out that in this system, it is not necessary to test all staff, while observing the bubble system protocols, which strictly limits potential exposure and keeps teams isolated.

Even players’ families must abide by the system. They must test every other day for seven days prior to entering the NBA bubble in Orlando. Once in the bubble, they must quarantine for another seven days, before being able to stay with their loved one. Staff are not allowed visits from family. The organization also enforces a test protocol for anyone reentering the bubble after traveling beyond it, requiring negative results on at least two tests over a 72 hour period prior to gaining entry. “We’ve saved a ton of money because we haven’t spent a single penny on cleaning our building at all,” Sikka said, explaining that with the protocols and testing, they only need standard cleaning. According to Sikka, the protocols are preventing infiltration of the virus, despite rising infection rates within the community outside, and even some positive tests amongst family members.

Sikka also emphasized the critical importance of mask compliance to the program’s success. It is strictly adhered to, particularly to keep mini-bubbles from potentially contaminating each other within the larger bubble. “You don’t need to have a perfect test if you have good communication and compliance with masks,” he said.

Saliva testing

The NBA is funding a study with Yale University, which has developed a $1, reagent agnostic saliva test that can be pooled. According to Sikka, the test may be about two weeks away from gaining FDA “Early Use Authorization” approval, which will allow labs to begin using the test more widely. He envisions labs across the country soon being able to provide saliva tests at scale, and suggested, while not every resident may be able to produce saliva, the test could be used for all staff and visitors, and many residents. “This is a cheap, asymptomatic screening test that can be run rapidly,” he said. Without the need for swabs and for more time-consuming lab work, the test would be quick, comfortable, and lower-risk to administer. He claimed the test is “90% sensitive compared to nasal pharyngeal swabs.”

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Wearables and contact tracing

Another innovation in use by the NBA involves wearable devices, such as the Apple watch, Oura ring, and Fitbit – all devices that the NBA has selected to work with. Already hugely popular, millions of Americans are wearing such devices already, and have smart phones that can enhance the devices’ capabilities. The NBA is using wearables as proximity trackers as well as a means to perform contact tracing. Wearables are promising to be able to detect subtle temperature changes, and to thereby detect a COVID-19 infection up to three days prior to other symptoms appearing. Data from these devices can be used to track and screen groups of people, and to identify higher-risk individuals over larger populations. Proximity tracking can warn a wearer that they are too close to other individuals for an extended period of time.

Other considerations that Sikka commented on ranged from activity and social gathering protocols, to having the “guts” as an organization to make tough decisions. The NBA is ensuring disposal of playing cards after they are used, and prohibiting doubles play in ping pong, among other steps to ensure safety while allowing limited social interactions. While the organization is less focused on facility cleaning, they believe ventilation “is probably not appreciated enough,” according to Sikka. He also emphasized the importance of early quarantines and early testing, saying, “I will not let someone in my building if they are not tested.”

Contact tracing, according to Sikka, is also essential. “We have 100% compliance on contact tracing and 100% compliance on wearables, and this is because we’ve forced our folks to really understand, hey, this isn’t just about you. This is about everybody else. It’s not about us trying to control your behavior but it is about you participating in a group that really needs every person to step up. We cannot have weak links” he said.

The importance of testing

Kosaraju provided an overview of where we stand on the development of testing for COVID-19, referring to three phases of development. The initial “shutdown” phase saw development of the first tests, such as PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and Isothermal nucleic acid amplification, which require a significant amount of lab work. As we enter a gradual reopening phase, according to Kosaraju, “Not only do we need more testing, its our view that we need to make smarter decisions about testing.” He described using testing as a screening tool, and incorporating testing into the environment, not only for the sick, but to detect potentially asymptomatic carriers. That will require testing more people, and therefore a development of technological capabilities. Once vaccines are “available and effective,” testing will enter a new phase, in which they will help monitor and protect against future outbreaks.

Today we need more testing, and to get tests to the right people, according to Kosaraju. Challenges include mixed messages on the need for testing, and a lack of a centrally coordinated plan that addresses COVID-19 and potential future pandemics. He underlined the importance of providing “accurate, affordable, and rapid” testing, saying, “waiting 7 days for a turnaround time defeats the purpose, if not making it worse.” He then outlined the advantages and disadvantages of today’s testing technologies, as well as new approaches that are being investigated and may soon become more widely available, such as the saliva test in development at Yale. “We’ve come a long way in testing…testing technology is improving. We are making improvements to make it faster, more scalable, rapid, and more cost-effective, ultimately. We are heading down the right path.”

Jurutka posed a few questions submitted by the webinar audience. The first centered on whether and when the saliva test in development at Yale would become approved, and widely available. In response, Sikka pointed out that the protocol for the test is open-source, and publicly available. The test is awaiting the FDA’s Early Use Authorization, which will enable labs to begin using the test, but Sikka expressed hope that a “clear verification” step can be waived. “We’ve seen a negative predictive value that’s equivalent to swabs…we’ve also seen, in a hospitalized population set, 94% sensitivity…so for a screening test its really a perfect test.” While the test will cost $1-2, he suggested a commercial lab will likely mark that up.

Automation, pooling, and more test runs per day will also help scale up testing capacity, on a test that is “much, much more tolerable, and safer” than swab testing. He said, “we’re not going to be swabbing for the rest of the year, we’re going to have alternative tests, and we’re going to have a lot of different tests available by December. But really to get us out of this and to help us get back to whatever the new sense of normalcy is, we’re going to have to have alternatives to swabs.”

NIC MAP^® Data Service clients attended a webinar in mid-July on the key seniors housing and nursing care data trends during the second quarter of 2020. Led by the NIC research team, the webinar presented findings that reflected the impact of COVID-19 across the seniors housing and care sector. Key takeaways included the following:

Takeaway #1: Seniors Housing Occupancy Fell Sharply in 2Q 2020

• The all occupancy rate for seniors housing fell 2.8 percentage points in the second quarter to 84.9%, the lowest level since NIC has been reporting the data in 2005. This drop in occupancy was directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic as net demand fell by an unprecedented 15,100 units. Separately, new supply decelerated to its slowest pace since the first quarter of 2019.
• For perspective, its notable that the drop in net occupied units or absorption, while very large, only pushed total occupied units back to the level of the first quarter of 2019.
• Stabilized occupancy for all seniors living properties, defined by NIC as properties that have been open for at least two years or, if open for less than two years, have already reached a 95% occupancy level, fell by 2.9 percentage points to 86.9%, also a record low.
• The gap between all occupancy and stable occupancy was largely unchanged at 2.0 percentage points.

Takeaway #2: One of Five Properties Had 95% or Higher Occupancy

• There is a wide range of property level performance within the largest metropolitan markets. The average occupancy rate alone is not a tell-all indicator of a metro market.
• The median occupancy rate—which is defined as the mid-point of the distribution, with an equal number of properties below that rate as above that rate—is pulled higher compared with the average occupancy rate because 22% of the properties had a 95% occupancy rate or higher. Additionally, more than 43% of all properties had rates higher than 90%. This may be surprising to some.
• There was a large drop in the number of properties with an occupancy rate above 95%, however. This fell from a share of 33% in the first quarter to 22% in the second quarter.
• The average occupancy rate is being pulled down by the 28% of properties with occupancy rates below 80%, and the 40% of properties having occupancy rates less than 85%.
• Weaker occupancy rates were more prevalent in the second quarter. In the first quarter there were a lesser 31% of properties with occupancies below 85% (versus 40% in Q2) and only 22% with occupancies below 80% (versus 28% in Q2).

Takeaway #3: Largest Occupancy Declines Were in the April Reporting Period

• NIC MAP now offers Intra-Quarterly data results through June by metro area. 
• Over the April, May, June three-month reporting periods, Denver had the largest drop in occupancy, falling nearly 5 percentage points from 87.9% to 83.2%, followed by St. Louis, Sacramento, and Orlando. The smallest decline in occupancy occurred in Cleveland, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore.
• In most instances the largest drops occurred in the April reporting period with lesser deteriorations in the May and June reporting periods.
• Two markets saw a bit of improvement in the June reporting period—Sacramento and Cleveland.

Takeaway #4: More Entities Reported an Increase in Move-Ins

• Since the onset of the pandemic, NIC has been conducting a regularly issued Executive Survey, a survey being conducted by NIC to get timely insights into the impact of COVID-19 on operators in the seniors housing and skilled nursing.
• In Wave 9 of the Executive Survey, the shares of organizations reporting an acceleration in move-ins in the past 30-days—across each of the care segments—is the highest in the time series (March 24 to July 5, 2020), while the shares of organizations reporting deceleration in move-ins is the lowest.
• As shown in the chart below, in Wave 9 of the survey, between 36% and 42% of organizations reporting on their independent living, assisted living, memory care, and nursing care segments noted that the pace of move-ins accelerated in the past 30-days. This is the second consecutive wave showing an increase of organizations reporting accelerated move-ins in the past 30-days, and the highest in the time-series, March 24 to July 5. The independent living care segment saw the most growth in the shares of organizations reporting an acceleration in move-ins between Wave 8 and Wave 9 (from 19% to 42%). Comparatively, between 16% to 26% of organizations with independent living, assisted living and/or memory care units, and 33% of organizations with nursing care beds reported that the pace of move-ins decelerated in the past 30-days—the smallest shares reported in the time series.
• Reasons cited by survey respondents for either an acceleration or deceleration in move-ins varied. In Wave 9 of the survey—as some state and local governments had lifted COVID-19 contagion spread mitigation measures, prompting some organizations to resume pre-pandemic planned move-ins, just over a third of respondents cited an organization-imposed ban or resident or family member concerns as reasons for slumping move-in rates–the fewest since the survey’s inception.

Operators are invited and encouraged to help provide transparency to the market by participating in the next Executive Survey. Click here to complete the survey.

Key Takeaway #5: All Buyer Activity Relatively Weak in 2Q 2020

• Based on this preliminary data, transactions volume in the second quarter totaled only $1.2 billion, which is not very surprising given the pandemic and the challenges within seniors housing and care that were present in the second quarter. That $1.2 billion represented a 64.3% decline from the first quarter of 2020 when volume registered $3.2 billion and a 70.4% decline from a year ago when volume registered $3.9 billion in the second quarter of 2019. For the year-to-date, transaction volume totaled $4.4 billion.
• Overall buyer activity was depressed with the topline dollar volume of only $1.2 billion, but one of the bright spots, although off a very small base, is the increase in activity from the institutional buyer in the second quarter.
• The institutional buyer activity increased 220% from the first quarter to register $309 million in closed transactions. Note however that this is coming off a very small base in the first quarter with only $97 million closed.

Interested in learning more?

While access to the full presentation of the key takeaways from this article is available exclusively to NIC MAP clients, the abridged version of the 2Q20 Data Release Webinar & Discussion – featuring data graphs and my commentary – is available through the link below.

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Now more than ever, the actionable data provided by NIC MAP^® Data Service can help you stay informed. To learn more about NIC MAP and accessing the data featured in this article, schedule a meeting with a product expert today.

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A lot of economic news today, much of which was not encouraging. First, the long-awaited first estimate of GDP growth in 2Q 2020 was released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and as anticipated the number was historic, with an annualized decline of 32.9% reported. Second, and for the second consecutive week, the number of initial claims filed for unemployment insurance rose. Third, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, encouraged Congress to act quickly to inject further fiscal stimulus into a weakening economic landscape.

Regarding the GDP report, the estimated inflation-adjusted output metric of all goods and services produced across the U.S. economy plunged 32.9% in the second quarter, a record one-quarter contraction of the domestic economy. This was more than three times larger than the previous record quarterly contraction and underscores the unprecedented impact of the pandemic on the broad economy.

A collapse in household spending (down 34.6%), which was already weak in the first quarter (-6.9%), led the plunge reflecting historically large job losses, stay-at-home orders, lockdowns, and large numbers of business closures. Services consumption was down by 43.5%, with the biggest declines coming in healthcare, as non-essential check-ups and procedures were delayed as well as dramatically less spending on entertainment and restaurants. Shutdowns and weak demand also weighed on business and residential investment. In contrast, the federal government fiscal stimulus contributed to a 2.7% rise in government spending, although that metric would have been larger had it not been for a 5.6% drop in state and local spending which reflects the revenue shortfalls at these jurisdictional levels.

Despite the drop in income associated with job losses, inflation-adjusted disposable income jumped by 44.9% at an annualized pace as unemployment insurance payments helped offset the loss of paychecks and tips.

A robust third quarter bounce back in GDP is looking less likely, given a resurgence in coronavirus cases that is weighing on economic activity. COVID-19 virus containment is key. Without it, a more complete reopening of the economy, which is crucial for recovery, will remain out of reach.

Separately, the Labor Department reported that jobless claims rose to 1.434 million in the week ending July 25, up from 1.422 million in the prior week. This marked the second consecutive weekly increase and the 19^th consecutive week that claims exceeded one million. Up until two weeks ago, this metric had been falling on a consistent basis week over week. Continuing claims for regular benefits, which are reported with an extra week’s lag, rose by 867,000 to 17.018 million in the week ending July 18. Including people who are collecting benefits under expanded pandemic assistance, 30.202 million people were receiving unemployment insurance in the week ended July 11. By this measure, the unemployment rate would be calculated as closer to the high teens level versus the 11.2% official rate reported by the Labor Department. The increase in the weekly rates reflects the resurgence in COVID-19 cases which in turn has resulted in a pause or in some situations a rollback of re-openings across some states.

Separately and earlier this week, the Conference Board reported that its index of consumer confidence fell in July as consumers became less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and the labor market.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve met this week and provided a downbeat assessment of the economic outlook. While acknowledging that economic activity and employment had “picked up somewhat,” they still “remain well below” pre-pandemic levels. In the post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell doubled down on that point, calling the spread of the coronavirus “the most central driver” of the economy, and said the renewed surge in cases had led to a “slowing in the pace of the recovery”. At the same time, he acknowledged the uncertainty, saying how large and how sustained that slowdown will be is unknowable. He stressed that additional help from fiscal policy is essential, stating “fiscal policy can address things that we (the Federal Reserve) can’t address.” He called the pandemic and its fallout “the biggest shock to the U.S. economy in living memory.” Powell emphasized the pandemic will dictate the trajectory of economic recovery.

And with that, thank goodness there is no more economic news being reported today…