There has been considerable progress in 2024 in raising the visibility of senior housing as a distinct property type within the broader commercial real estate sector. Earlier this year, the National Council for Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) began including senior housing in its flagship NCREIF index. The Urban Land Institute (ULI) incorporated key senior housing metrics for the first time in its Fall 2024 Economic Outlook webinar and report, and in September, Trepp featured senior housing in its weekly newsletter in an article titled, “Aging Population Brings Opportunities.” The sector has made great strides in partnering with these influential organizations and in calling greater attention to senior housing.
As part of these broader efforts, Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer with Trepp, participated in the October NIC Senior Housing Credit Outlook webinar, sharing insights into commercial real estate data that Trepp tracks via their database of securitized mortgages. Trepp analytics offer insights into debt, equity, and operating performance across a range of property types. Mr. Hendry provided specific senior housing data for topics such as delinquency rates, issuance trends, operating performance, and financial benchmarks
Trepp currently tracks roughly $40.8 billion of outstanding senior living debt, which reflects CMBS and agency lending. While not reflective of all capital in the senior housing sector, it represents a significant portion of the lending volume. From that existing dataset, Trepp shared the following key data points as of September 2024:
Hendry also reported on CMBS delinquency rates by major property type. Senior housing falls within the overall multifamily property type within the Trepp system, but for purposes of the Credit Outlook webinar, senior housing-specific rates were reported. As shown in the graphic, in September, the overall CMBS delinquency rate was 5.7%, above the 4.39% reported in September 2023. The senior housing delinquency rate was 1.66%, below both the overall and multifamily figures for the month.
NIC will continue to work with strategic partners such as Trepp to provide analytical insights into loan and market performance for the senior housing sector. More information on the NIC Senior Housing Outlook webinars, including a recording of Lonnie Hendry’s remarks, can be found here.