On October 16th, NIC’s Head of Research and Analytics, Lisa McCracken, participated in the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Real Estate Economic Forecast webinar. This biannual webinar accompanies the release of a similar economic forecast report, which shares survey results from leading real estate economists and analysts, and highlights market fundamentals from key real estate property types. For the first time, senior housing was included in the report and was highlighted in this member-exclusive webinar. As part of this webinar, the nearly 1,000 attendees (largely non-senior housing) responded to the polling question, “Which sector do you feel will provide the best risk-adjusted returns across the next three years?” The graph below details the results of that poll, which shows senior housing rated the second highest behind data centers.
Additionally, senior housing was included in the 2025 Emerging Trends in Real Estate publication, compiled by ULI and PwC. The goal of the 2025 trends publication is to provide forward-thinking views on the future of various real estate sectors in the U.S. In addition to calling out the prior success of the senior housing sector, this article outlined the need to think differently and adopt a fresh lens on the future of housing and services for older adults. While highlighting the significant tailwinds driving demand (aging population), the article noted the need for additional housing and care options for middle-income seniors. By 2033, middle-income seniors are projected to represent 44% of all older adult households in the U.S. Affordability will continue to be top-of-mind for senior housing.
With an additional 2.2 million adults aged 65 and older expected to enter the rental market over the next decade, the Active Adult rental market was noted as an emerging model attracting greater interest among both senior housing and multifamily developers. Active Adult communities vary with some developers targeting the middle-market consumer, with others offering higher-apportioned amenities.
The final emerging trend featured in the ULI article related to repurposing existing retail real estate for mixed-use senior housing developments. These projects highlight a growing trend of redeveloping retail spaces into mixed-used developments that include age-restricted housing, addressing both the demand for senior living options and the need to revitalize vacant mall properties. These projects also have the potential to align well with the expectations of baby boomers and provide integrated access to amenities and services as part of an overall redevelopment plan. Each redevelopment has a unique history and future potential, allowing for creative and innovative uses moving forward. As we approach 2025, we are optimistic about the momentum behind senior housing and the interest from both current and new investors and developers. NIC associates Ray Braun, Caroline Clapp, and Lisa McCracken are members of ULI and associated product councils and will continue to call attention to the sector at a national level among real estate professionals and economists.