Occupancy rate increases for 13th consecutive quarter and forecasted to rise in the months ahead
Boston, Baltimore, and Tampa see highest occupancy rates; lowest rates in Houston, Las Vegas, Atlanta
ANNAPOLIS (October 3, 2024) – Availability of senior housing communities across the United States continues to tighten as more adults move in but construction of new properties slows, new data shows.
The senior housing occupancy rate for the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets increased 0.7 percentage points—from 85.8% in the second quarter of 2024 to 86.5% in the third quarter—according to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), using data from NIC MAP Vision.
NIC experts say older adults are continuing to demand senior housing at elevated levels, and more older adults are living in senior housing than ever before. The total number of occupied units hit a new high of more than 611,000 across NIC MAP Vision’s 31 primary markets.
Though the independent living occupancy rate still exceeds the assisted living occupancy rate (87.9% vs 85.1%), the gap between the two continues narrowing, as assisted living occupancy gains outpaced those of independent living in the third quarter. Assisted living is more needs-based than independent living, so older adults who need assistance with activities of daily living are increasingly choosing assisted living for housing and support.
“As more Baby Boomers reach their 60s and 70s, demand for senior housing is expected to continue increasing and ultimately exceed pre-pandemic occupancy levels by the end of the year,” said Lisa McCracken, NIC’s head of research and analytics. “This increased demand plus the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are encouraging signals that the industry is moving toward better conditions for growth, so we can continue to develop communities that meet older adults’ needs at a price they can afford.”
Despite increased demand, the growth in new senior housing options is at one of the lowest levels in recent history. Construction starts for the last four quarters are comparable to 2009 levels after the housing crisis, with only 7,100 spaces breaking ground. Additionally, the third quarter of 2024 saw the fewest spaces under construction since 2014. The total inventory growth for the third quarter was only 1.1% above the third quarter of 2023. This trend has continued for the past several quarters.
“The industry does not have enough senior housing options in the development pipeline to meet the growing demand from older adults, so construction needs to ramp up in a smart and measured way or we’ll have a crisis on our hands,” said Arick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP Vision. “Data will help determine which markets are ripe for expansion, where demand is highest, and the kinds of communities older adults are looking for.”
The three markets with the highest and lowest occupancy rates remained unchanged from previous quarters, suggesting familiar market-level trends. Boston (91.3%), Baltimore (89.2%), and Tampa (89.2%) once again had the highest occupancy rates of the 31 NIC MAP Primary Markets, while Atlanta (83.7%), Houston (82.1%), and Las Vegas (79.2%) recorded the lowest. Occupancy rates for other primary and secondary markets are available upon request.
A summary of the NIC MAP Market Fundamentals Data, by NIC MAP Vision, is below. An abridged report featuring the newly released data will be available at 4:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 3, 2024. While the report is a complimentary resource, only NIC MAP Vision clients have exclusive access to the underlying data and additional metrics at the metro level.
About the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care
The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC), a 501(c)(3) organization, works to enable access and choice by providing data, analytics, and connections that bring together investors and providers. The organization delivers the most trusted, objective, and timely insights and implications derived from its analytics, which benefit from NIC’s affiliation with NIC MAP Vision, the leading provider of comprehensive market data for senior housing and skilled nursing properties. NIC events, which include the industry’s premiere conferences, provide sector stakeholders with opportunities to convene, network, and drive thought-leadership through high-quality educational programming. For more information, visit NIC’s website and follow NIC on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Instagram.
About NIC MAP Vision
NIC MAP Vision maximizes access, choice, and quality in senior housing by providing data, analytics, and services to industry stakeholders and partners. We are the only intelligence provider exclusively dedicated to senior housing. As the industry’s gold standard for market analytics data, we are trusted by the largest government agencies, 18 of the 20 largest senior housing operators, and most of the largest investors and owners. Every day, thousands of industry professionals use our data platform and proprietary tools to make smarter decisions about where to grow, how to grow, and how to bring a strategy to life. For more information, visit https://www.nicmapvision.com/.